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Thursday, 15 November 18
OIL MARKET REPORT: HEEDING THE WARNINGS - IEA
 In last month’s Report, we noted that since the middle of the year oil supply had increased sharply, with gains in the Middle East, Russia and the United States more than compensating for falls in production in Iran, Venezuela and elsewhere. New data show that the pace has accelerated, and this higher output, in combination with Iranian sanctions waivers issued by the US and steady demand growth, implies a stock build in 4Q18 of 0.7 mb/d. Already, OECD stocks have increased for four months in a row, with products back above the five-year average. In 1H19, based on our outlook for non-OPEC production and global demand, and assuming flat OPEC production (i.e. losses from Iran/Venezuela are offset by others), the implied stock build is currently 2 mb/d.
In the August edition of this Report we described the replacement of Iranian and Venezuelan barrels as “challenging”, and that there was a danger of prices rising too high too fast. Producers have heeded the warnings and more than met the challenge and today, the Big Three, Russia, Saudi Arabia and the United States, all see output at record levels. Total non-OPEC production in August, the latest month for which we have consolidated data, was 3.5 mb/d higher than a year ago, with the United States contributing an extraordinary 3.0 mb/d. Russia’s crude output has hit a new record of 11.4 mb/d, with companies suggesting that they could produce even more.
In early October, the price of Brent crude oil reached a four-year high above $86/bbl, reflecting the legitimate fears of market tightness. In our view, this was a dangerous “red zone” and it justified calls for producers to raise output. Today, the price has fallen to a more reasonable level close to $70/bbl, well below where it was in May before the US announced its change of policy on Iran. Lower prices are clearly a benefit to consumers, especially hard-pressed ones in developing countries that are suffering from the additional handicap of weak national currencies. For now, forecasts of oil demand growth remain solid with an increase of 1.3 mb/d this year and an increase to 1.4 mb/d in 2019, even though the macro-economic outlook is uncertain.
We should also recognise the interests of the producers. For many countries, even though their output might have increased, prices falling too far are unwelcome. Ministers from the Vienna Agreement countries will meet in early December, but we have already seen suggestions from leading producers that supply could be cut soon if customers, seeing ample supply, rising stocks, and slumping refining margins, request lower volumes.
Although the oil market appears to be more relaxed than it was a few weeks ago, and there might be a sense of “mission accomplished” that producers have met the challenge of replacing lost barrels, such is the volatility of events that rising stocks should be welcomed as a form of insurance, rather than a threat. The United States remains committed to reducing Iranian oil exports to zero from the 1.8 mb/d seen today; there are concerns as to the stability of production in Libya, Nigeria and Venezuela; and the tanker collision last week in Norwegian waters, although modest in impact, is another reminder of the vulnerability of the system to accidents.
The response to the call by the IEA and others to increase production is a reminder that the oil industry works best when it works together. Regular contacts between key players are essential in creating understanding, and even though oil diplomacy has succeeded so far this year, it needs to be maintained to ensure market stability.
Source: IEA
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Monday, 19 February 24
METALS INVESTMENT: THE DARKEST HOUR IS JUST BEFORE THE DAWN - WOOD MACKENZIE
Things often seem at their worst just before they get better. In terms of meeting our net zero 2050 scenario, we’ve reached a watershed momen ...
Tuesday, 13 February 24
WHAT IS THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NATURAL GAS SPOT PRICE IN 2024 AND 2025? EIA
We expect the U.S. benchmark Henry Hub natural gas spot price to average higher in 2024 and 2025 than in 2023, but to remain lower than $3.00 per m ...
Monday, 12 February 24
US THERMAL COAL EXPORTS HIT 5-YEAR HIGHS AND TOP $5 BLN IN 2023 - REUTERS
United States exporters of thermal coal earned more than $5 billion in 2023 as they shipped out more than 32.5 million metric tons of the high-poll ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
NEW E-FUELS PROJECT TO MAKE INTERNATIONAL SHIPPING CLIMATE-NEUTRAL - RINA
Transport and trade on the ocean blue must be made much greener. This is the goal of the new €17 million European GAMMA project, where compani ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
INDIA SEES ANNUAL COAL OUTPUT UP 10.9% IN 2024/25 - REUTERS
India expects domestic coal output to increase by 10.9% to 1.13 billion metric tons in the fiscal year ending March 2025, a senior government offic ...
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Showing 11 to 15 news of total 6846 |
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- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- White Energy Company Limited
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The University of Queensland
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
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