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  • KOMIPO INVITES BIDS FOR 260,000 MT OF MIN. 5700 KCAL/KG NAR COLOMBIAN COAL FEB-MAR 2020 LOADING. BID SUBMISSION ON OR BEFORE 1400 HRS ON NOVEMBER 22, 2019 (KST)
  • EIA FORECASTS THAT U.S. COAL PRODUCTION IN 2020 WILL TOTAL 607 MMST APPROXIMATELY 19.70% DECRESAE FROM THE 2018 LEVEL
  • EIA EXPECTS TOTAL U.S. COAL PRODUCTION IN 2019 TO TOTAL 698 MILLION SHORT TONS (MMST), AN 8% DECREASE FROM THE 2018 LEVEL OF 756 MMST
  • EIA EXPECTS U.S. STEAM COAL EXPORTS TO FACE INCREASING COMPETITION FROM EASTERN EUROPEAN SOURCES, AND THAT RUSSIA WILL FILL A GROWING SHARE OF STEAM COAL TRADE, CAUSING U.S. COAL EXPORTS TO FALL IN 2020
  • NOV 2019 INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE FOR EXPORTS AND DOMESTIC BUYERS INCLUDING POWER PRODUCERS FIXED AT US$ 66.27 A TON
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Wednesday, 24 October 18
MARKET INSIGHT - NASSOS SOULAKIS
IntermodalLooking at 2018 SnP activity, it is evident that Greek, Chinese and North European (German and Norwegian) owners are the top buying nationalities, accounting for 60% and 40% of the dry bulk (>20kdwt) and tanker (>10kdwt) sales including the sale & leaseback deals as well as whole fleet takeovers.
 
Aside those nationalities though, there are also others that do pose particular interest when someone tries  mapping the SnP market as a whole despite the fact that they so far account for a much smaller number of transactions.
 
Starting with Indonesia, interest from local Buyers is expressed in both sectors, with 15 bulkers and 13 tankers ending up in Indonesian hands so far in 2018. On the dry bulk side Indonesian owners have been focusing on Handymax and Supramax candidates up to 56kdwt, while age-wise the range starts from ships built in early 2010 up to 20-year old ships, with the majority built in the early-mid 2000s. On the tanker side, there is interest for all sizes from small Chinese built chemical tankers and j19st-st tankers up to VLCC. Handy and MR candidates built in the early-mid 2000s gather most of the interest. The SnP presence of Waruna is worth mentioning here, given the fact that the specific Indonesian owner is responsible for the big range of deadweight found in tankers ending up in Indonesian hands, having acquired more than half of all such vessels so far.
 
Vietnamese buyers show almost equal interest in tankers and bulkers, while the focus is on Japanese j19st-st tankers and on the dry bulk side almost exclusively on Handysize units built during the late ‘90s and up to 2005.
 
Almost equal activity between the two sectors has been also displayed by UAE based owners, with purchases focusing on Handy-MR units built in the late 90's up to early 2000s on one side, while on the dry bulk side focus is on older Handysize and Panamax vessels. 
 
Turkish and Indian buyers on the other hand show a clear preference in one of the two sectors instead of both. The first have been focusing on late 90's early 2000’s built Handysize bulkers, while Indian owners show a clear preference to early 2000’s MRs, with owner Seven Islands responsible for almost half the deals concluded so far.
 
With the exception of UAE, all of the above markets have bee also witnessing a correction of their respective local currencies against the US dollar.  The drop might be only marginal in the case of Vietnam but the rest of the economies are looking at substantial discounts. Indeed, the Turkish lira has lost almost half of its value compared to a year ago, while the Indian and Indonesian currencies have witnessed a discount of around 10% within the same period. 
 
Therefore, despite the softer buying power most of these nations seem to be witnessing, they still seem to be committed in shipping investments. Their share might be much smaller compared to those nations in top places, but given their sizeable presence in specific sub-segments in both the dry bulk and tanker sector their importance/influence within these markets is already considered important, while stability in local currencies could increase their impact substantially.

By Nassos Soulakis
SnP Broker
 
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations


Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima

George Panagopoulos


Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.

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