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Wednesday, 29 August 18
MID-YEAR FY19 POWER OUTLOOK: IMPORTED COAL REQUIREMENT TO INCREASE DURING REMAINING FY19: IND-RA
India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra) has maintained a stable-to-negative outlook on the Indian power sector for the remaining FY19, despite a rise in electricity demand and an increase in short-term prices.
According to a post published on Ind-Ra's website, the stable-to-negative outlook continues to reflect Ind-Ra’s expectation of a continued low plant load factor of 60.0%-62.0% of coal-based thermal power plants over the rest of FY19, because of large capacity additions in the past five years and domestic coal availability challenges. Ind-Ra expects India’s dependence on thermal power generation to remain high in the absence of any substantial improvement in power generation from other sources.
The agency has maintained a Stable Outlook on most of its rated power sector entities for the rest of FY19, as the agency expects the entities to continue to manage fuel and counterparty risks on account of a favourable tariff mechanism, a comfortable liquidity position and support from central and state governments.
Ind-Ra expects the dependence on coal-based power generation to continue despite a likely increase in capacity addition in the renewable segment, as capacity addition is low on an equivalent thermal basis owing to the low plant load factor in the renewable segment.
Given Ind-Ra’s expectation of healthy power demand growth in the rest of FY19 and thermal power capacity contributing to the required growth, coal availability becomes a key determinant for required power demand growth. Considering the historical growth rate of domestic non-coking coal production and offtake, Ind-Ra estimates imported coal requirement to increase to 62.0 million tonnes in FY19 from 56.0 million tonnes in FY18 to meet incremental power generation. Hence, there could be higher imported coal usage in FY19 than that in FY16-FY18, when imported coal usage declined. According to Ind-Ra, in a scenario of lower-than-required growth in domestic coal output, short-term power prices would remain firm and are likely to be determined by the marginal cost of energy production undertaken using imported coal.
Ind-Ra estimates project internal rate of returns to decline to a single-digit level in view of the recent aggressive bidding for wind power projects. Ind-Ra believes a high un-hedged forex exposure from the depreciating Indian rupee further lowers projects’ internal rate of returns. Moreover, access to the banking system may tighten, in case bidding continues to remain aggressive.
Solicitation Disclosures
Ratings are not a recommendation or suggestion, directly or indirectly, to you or any other person, to buy, sell, make or hold any investment, loan or security or to undertake any investment strategy with respect to any investment, loan or security or any issuer. Please also refer Ind-Ra’s Disclaimer
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- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- White Energy Company Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
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