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Wednesday, 31 January 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
Days before the celebrations of the Lunar New Year, the dry bulk market seems to be holding well, against negative predictions. Period numbers reported are close to last done levels and despite the pressure in the beginning of the month, the spot market also seems to be resisting a further drop during the past week. All this has helped S&P activity to stay rather strong during a time when Buyers traditionally remain on the sidelines.
But even if 2018 ends up being a good year overall for the dry bulk market or even better than 2017; how long can this last?
Don't get me wrong, I am not expecting a collapse or a blood bath. After the lengthy period during which the massive orderbook had been casting a shadow over earnings and chocking any efforts for recovery, the market seems to have finally started reaching a balance and by this I mean that we are finally heading towards a cyclical behavior of transparent highs and lows.
Now in regards to the duration of those ups and downs, this is yet to be seen but nonetheless a more predictable or at least foreseeable market is something that ship owners, charterers and yards would love to experience again after many years of uncertainty.
We have witnessed rather short cycles in the tanker market with highs and lows being fully developed in a span of 34-44 months. But as far as tankers are concerned, we have also seen a solid differentiation between the crude and product market. It is not wrong to even talk about two different markets instead of unifying them under a single tanker market.
The shorter cycles have caused shrinkage of the duration of any windows for buying low or selling high. It is not unreasonable to expect that the dry bulk market will eventually start to show similar patterns if the aforementioned balance occurs.
It is hard to say if any specific dry bulk size segments that are highly dependable on very specific/limited number of cargoes will form sub-markets that will affect respectively asset values independently from the course of the sector as a whole as it has been the case for tankers. For example product cargo vessels have retained a more stable residual value (especially in the case of assets younger than 11 years) compared the crude carrying ships whose values appeared to be way more volatile.
But this it not the main concern or question of this insight. The main point is that a return to a more cyclical market will indeed require better reflexes on behalf of investors when it comes to placing money into either second hand or newbuilding assets.
This will put pressure to investors to have cash or finance easily accessible when opportunities arise. How will this influence the overall ship-owing land scape is yet to be seen. All of the above is pure speculation. For what is worth, we might be in the doorstep of another super cycle that will last more than 4 years. Time will tell.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 19 February 24
METALS INVESTMENT: THE DARKEST HOUR IS JUST BEFORE THE DAWN - WOOD MACKENZIE
Things often seem at their worst just before they get better. In terms of meeting our net zero 2050 scenario, we’ve reached a watershed momen ...
Tuesday, 13 February 24
WHAT IS THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NATURAL GAS SPOT PRICE IN 2024 AND 2025? EIA
We expect the U.S. benchmark Henry Hub natural gas spot price to average higher in 2024 and 2025 than in 2023, but to remain lower than $3.00 per m ...
Monday, 12 February 24
US THERMAL COAL EXPORTS HIT 5-YEAR HIGHS AND TOP $5 BLN IN 2023 - REUTERS
United States exporters of thermal coal earned more than $5 billion in 2023 as they shipped out more than 32.5 million metric tons of the high-poll ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
NEW E-FUELS PROJECT TO MAKE INTERNATIONAL SHIPPING CLIMATE-NEUTRAL - RINA
Transport and trade on the ocean blue must be made much greener. This is the goal of the new €17 million European GAMMA project, where compani ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
INDIA SEES ANNUAL COAL OUTPUT UP 10.9% IN 2024/25 - REUTERS
India expects domestic coal output to increase by 10.9% to 1.13 billion metric tons in the fiscal year ending March 2025, a senior government offic ...
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Showing 11 to 15 news of total 6846 |
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- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
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