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Wednesday, 13 December 17
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE PANAGOPOULOS
 As another year is coming to an end and much has been already written about the positive reversal in the dry bulk market, we think it is interesting at this point to focus in the tanker sector, where market fundamentals have been casting a shadow of uncertainty over next year’s performance.
In a rather unconventional development, despite the fact that earnings for the sector have continued to move lower this year, tanker newbuilding orders have actually increased year to date by 17%, compared to 2016.
The most logical explanation for this has been the admittedly attractive newbuilding prices that still continue to tempt a number of owners into ordering despite a rather challenging freight market. When it comes to SnP activity, things have been rather steady; we are counting around 340 SnP tanker transactions so far, compared to the 333 transactions we have on record for the same period in 2016.
Tanker asset prices have consequently moved down this year as well, with tonnage older than ten years naturally noting the biggest declines in value. Saying that, there has been some rather decent resistance especially in prices for more modern vessels, which of course could be succumbed if pressure on earnings resumes in 2018.
Indeed, taking into account the scheduled deliveries next year and the fairly young average age of the tanker fleet that sets a rather low ceiling to the number of potential demo candidates, we wouldn’t be surprised to see way more attractive second-hand prices next year and a consequent spike in SnP interest/activity.
As far as oil prices are concerned, the latest decision taken by OPEC and its partner nations, who have agreed to extend crude output cuts until the end of next year, has offered additional support to the commodity.
Following this, analysts are now expressing a more positive view for next year. Goldman Sachs is optimistic on global oil demand growth and actually expects the output cuts to end earlier, in Q3 2018. Moreover, Credit Suisse raised its 2018 oil price forecasts citing strong OPEC adherence to pledged output cuts.
A survey recently conducted by Reuters also showed that the rally on oil prices is expected to continue in 2018. Rounding up the positive expectations, OPEC anticipates oil demand to rise by 1.51 million bpd next year, up 130,000 bpd from previously, to 98.45 million bpd.
Despite the very positive vibe in the investing community as far as the price of the commodity is concerned, U.S. production continues to cast a shadow over bullish sentiment. After all the higher prices go the more sense it makes for US to increase its production from a commercial point of view and last month’s US crude inventories revealing the highest monthly production since 2015 is solid proof of that. This is not bad for tankers though, as a balanced oil price is naturally much more appealing and supportive of demand.
By George Panagopoulos
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 19 February 24
METALS INVESTMENT: THE DARKEST HOUR IS JUST BEFORE THE DAWN - WOOD MACKENZIE
Things often seem at their worst just before they get better. In terms of meeting our net zero 2050 scenario, we’ve reached a watershed momen ...
Tuesday, 13 February 24
WHAT IS THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NATURAL GAS SPOT PRICE IN 2024 AND 2025? EIA
We expect the U.S. benchmark Henry Hub natural gas spot price to average higher in 2024 and 2025 than in 2023, but to remain lower than $3.00 per m ...
Monday, 12 February 24
US THERMAL COAL EXPORTS HIT 5-YEAR HIGHS AND TOP $5 BLN IN 2023 - REUTERS
United States exporters of thermal coal earned more than $5 billion in 2023 as they shipped out more than 32.5 million metric tons of the high-poll ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
NEW E-FUELS PROJECT TO MAKE INTERNATIONAL SHIPPING CLIMATE-NEUTRAL - RINA
Transport and trade on the ocean blue must be made much greener. This is the goal of the new €17 million European GAMMA project, where compani ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
INDIA SEES ANNUAL COAL OUTPUT UP 10.9% IN 2024/25 - REUTERS
India expects domestic coal output to increase by 10.9% to 1.13 billion metric tons in the fiscal year ending March 2025, a senior government offic ...
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- PTC India Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
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