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Wednesday, 23 August 17
THE STRONG IRON ORE TRADE ROUTES SUPPORT CAPESIZE SEGMENT - INTERMODAL
IntermodalThe upward trend in the Capesize segment is definitely being supported by the strong momentum in the key iron ore trade routes. The price of high-quality iron ore is now trading up around 47% from its 2017 lows just two months ago as Chinese anti-pollution crackdown on its heavy industries has forced the country's steelmakers to chase high-quality imports and avoid domestic producers that contend with Fe content in the 20%-range. Environmental inspections in China have caused great impact on prices of the commodity. Production in some mines, processing plants and mills is already being disrupted. The import price of high quality 62% Fe content iron ore in North China jumped again as the country's steelmakers stoke production ahead of mandated cuts going into winter.

In general, China's steel production last month rose to a record 74m tonnes, which is more than 10% compared to last year, with some analysts believing that, up to a certain extent, this has to do with traders worrying about a steel supply crunch in the near future. Evidently, Beijing wants to ensure that the industry cuts output by as much as 50% during winter months to fight smog, particularly in its capital city and surrounding areas. As an example, in Hebei province which is one of China's key producing regions, steelmakers said they will have to comply with stringent new emissions regulations by the September 1st deadline.

Last week, Capesize iron ore freight rates were flirting with 2017 highs on all key iron ore routes from Australia, Brazil and South Africa to China on robust tonnage demand and seasonal pickup coupled with a firming freight derivative market.

The Tubarao to Qingdao 170,000 mt (plus/minus 10%) route was assessed Thursday at $17.25/wmt, which corresponded to a TCE of $19,308/day. The Saldanha Bay-Qingdao 170,000 mt (plus/minus 10%) route was assessed at $13/wmt, with a TCE of $19,879/day. The Port Hedland, Australia to Qingdao, China route, for 170,000 mt (plus/minus 10%) was also assessed at $7.50/wmt, the highest so far this year. The previous 2017 high was $7.20/wmt on March 28. The push in the Port Hedland-Qingdao freight rate saw the time charter equivalent (TCE) assessed at $19,308/day on this route.

Fearing steel shortages in Q4 2017 and Q1 2018, participants are said to be stepping up the stockpiling steel currently. While the mood is upbeat in the Capesize segment, some market watchers feel the burgeoning vessel supply side could be a concern. The market seems like it is firming up on sentiment, but analysts are still concerned that the current supply of ore is more than matched by the supply of Capesizes.

Over the last two years, the oversupply of Capesize vessels was keeping a lid on freight levels. Approximately 69 Capesize plus VLOC newbuildings have been delivered so far this year, the same as in the corresponding period last year.

However, demolitions of older Capesize tonnage have taken a backseat with just 20 vessels torched year to date compared with 71 ships in the same period last year.
By Christopher T. Whitty
Commercial Manager 
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.

Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations


Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima


Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.

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