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Tuesday, 22 August 17
THOSE DOG DAYS OF SUMMER STEEL PRODUCTION IN CHINA - COMMODORE
CommodoreCOALspot.com: One popular but inaccurate narrative that makes the rounds every June and July (and occurred again this year) is that China’s steel output and demand are very weak in summer months.

The pundits that make this claim year after year ignore what actually occurs in China.  However, as examined in Commodore Research's July 3rd Weekly China Report, a look back at seasonal steel output in China showed that steel output usually comes under only a small amount of pressure every June, July, and August.  As Commodore Research advocated in that report, there was no reason to expect a large drop in Chinese steel output would occur this summer -- but nevertheless, that is what many pundits were predicting.

As discussed in Commodore Research's July 3rd Weekly China Report, last year saw China produce 70.5 million tons of crude steel in May (which at that time was close to a record).  The next three months then saw crude steel production average 68.3 million tons, which worked out to a decline of only 3% from May’s production. This type of very small decline has been commonly seen in recent years.  In addition, compared to the 65.3 million ton production average seen during the first four months of 2016, the 68.3 million ton production average seen during June, July, and August 2016 was up by 3 million tons (5%).

Leading up to this summer, it was wrong when many pundits were stating that Chinese steel output comes under great pressure during the summer of each year.  This is not true, and Commodore Research insisted this would not occur this year.  Going forward, though, many pundits will remain of the view that China's steel output typically comes under great pressure every summer.  This year they are seeing how that is not true, but come next year the same inaccurate narrative will surface again before the summer of 2018 begins.

Overall, in many markets, economic coverage is often wrong and misleading.  There is a great deal of money to be made in the shipping and related equity markets whenever perception is not aligned with reality.  

About Commodore Research & Consultancy
Commodore Research & Consultancy focuses on providing forward-looking views and analysis on the global economy, national economies, and individual equity and commodity markets. Commodore Research & Consultancy work provides non-consensus research and analysis and often highlights flaws in market consensus.


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