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Thursday, 13 April 17
OPEC OVER-DELIVERS ON OIL CUTS, BUT SEES RIVALS' OUTPUT RISING
Crude Oil Price Movements
The OPEC Reference Basket averaged $50.32/b in March, representing a decline of 5.7% from the previous month. Crude futures also declined on concerns about growing oil output and high crude inventories in the US. ICE Brent ended 6.2% lower at $52.54/b, while NYMEX WTI decreased 7.1% to $49.67/b. The BrentWTI spread widened to $2.86/b, supporting US crude oil exports. Hedge funds liquidated their large net long positions in crude, contributing to the sharp drop in oil prices.
World Economy
The momentum in global economic growth has been improving resulting in an upward revision in the 2017 forecast to now stand at 3.3% from 3.2% previously, while growth for 2016 remains at 3.0%. OECD growth in 2017 remains at 1.9%, with the US and Euro-zone seeing no revisions. Japan’s 2017 growth forecast was revised up to 1.2% from 1.1% previously. China’s 2017 growth was also revised higher to 6.3% from 6.2%, while India’s forecast remains at 7.0%. Russia’s 2017 growth was revised up to 1.2% from 1.0%, while the forecast for Brazil is unchanged at 0.5%.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand growth in 2016 was kept broadly unchanged at 1.38 mb/d, averaging 95.05 mb/d. For 2017, oil demand growth is anticipated to be around 1.27 mb/d, following an upward revision of 10 mb/d to average 96.32 mb/d. The ‘Other Asia’ group – which includes India – is anticipated to lead oil demand growth in 2017, followed by China and OECD Americas. OECD Asia-Pacific is the only region anticipated to see a decline in oil demand in 2017.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC oil supply is estimated to have averaged 57.32 mb/d in 2016, representing a contraction of 0.69 mb/d y-o-y following a minor downward revision of 30 tb/d. In 2017, non-OPEC oil supply is projected to grow by 0.58 mb/d, following an upward revision of 176 tb/d due to higher than expected growth in the US and lesser contractions in Colombia and China, to average 57.89 mb/d. The US supply growth forecast was revised up by 0.20 mb/d to stand at 0.54 mb/d. OPEC NGLs and non-conventional oil production is forecast to grow by 0.13 mb/d in 2017, following growth of 0.14 mb/d in 2016. In March, OPEC production decreased by 153 tb/d, according to secondary sources, to average 31.93 mb/d. Product Markets and
Refining Operations
Product markets exhibited a mixed performance in the Atlantic Basin, as the lack of export opportunities for gasoline amid increasing inflows of middle distillates impacted the European market. Meanwhile, stronger domestic gasoline demand in the US ahead of the transition to summer grades lent strong support to refinery margins. In Asia, the lack of arbitrage amid increasing inflows into the region weighed on the market despite the onset of the spring refinery maintenance season.
Tanker Market
The tanker market showed a mixed pattern in March. VLCCs exhibiting an average decline of 23% m-o-m in spot rates on its various trading routes, as the tonnage availability remained abundant. In contrast, Suezmax and Aframax rates increased m-o-m by 13%, and 6%, respectively, mainly due to transit delays in the Turkish Straits, discharge delays in the east, and occasional tightening in tonnage supply. The market experienced higher monthly freight rates for clean tankers on most reported routes.
Stock Movements
Total OECD commercial oil stocks fell in February to 2,987 mb to now stand 268 mb above the latest five years average. Crude and product stocks indicated a surplus of around 227 mb and 41 mb, respectively. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks stood at 64.2 days, some 4.6 days higher than the latest five-year average Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2016 now stands at 31.7 mb/d, which is 1.9 mb/d higher than the 2015 level. In 2017, demand for OPEC crude is projected at 32.2 mb/d, around 0.6 mb/d higher than the 2016 level.
Source: OPEC
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Friday, 22 March 24
CASE STUDY: DANGERS OF COAL CARGO - SKULD
Recently, a bulk cargo vessel carrying coal from South Africa to Singapore suffered a fatal accident, resulting in the deaths of three crew members ...
Friday, 22 March 24
INDONESIA APPROVES 922.14 MLN T COAL PRODUCTION QUOTA FOR 2024, ABOVE TARGET - REUTERS
Indonesia has approved coal production quotas totalling 922.14 million metric tons for 2024, Bambang Suswantono, a senior official at the mining mi ...
Friday, 22 March 24
CHINA COAL INDUSTRY GROUP EXPECTS OUTPUT GROWTH TO SLOW IN 2024 - REUTERS
China’s coal output is expected to increase 36 million metric tons, or 0.8%, to about 4.7 billion tonnes in 2024, a Chinese coal industry gro ...
Monday, 18 March 24
THREE KEY TAKEAWAYS FROM OUR EUROPE GAS MARKETS SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK Q1 2024 - WOOD MACKENZIE
European gas prices are currently back to pre-crisis levels, but with a complex series of factors affecting future supply and demand, are they set ...
Wednesday, 06 March 24
INDONESIA AIMS TO FINISH MINING OUTPUT QUOTAS APPROVAL BY END-MARCH, OFFICIAL SAYS - REUTERS
Indonesia’s has approved the mining production quotarequests from more than 120mineral companies and aims to complete the approval process th ...
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- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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- India Bulls Power Limited - India
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- Australian Coal Association
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- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- VISA Power Limited - India
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- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
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- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
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- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
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- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
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- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
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- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
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- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
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- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
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- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
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- GMR Energy Limited - India
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- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- The University of Queensland
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
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