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Wednesday, 01 March 17
2017 IS LOOKING LIKE IT WILL BE A GOOD YEAR FOR A NUMBER OF COMMODITIES - LINOS KOGEVINAS
2017 is looking like it will be a good year for a number of commodities. Following the price recovery witnessed in 2016 across a number of commodities, the price of iron ore, zinc, copper, oil and natural gas appears poised to continue its upward trend.
Specifically, industrial metals were some of the largest winners of 2016 and this trend has continued in 2017 so far. Iron ore was the foremost gainer making a strong recovery from the lows of a disastrous 2015, with prices reaching USD82.4/tonne in December.
The climb has continued in 2017 with yesterday’s (27/02) price closing in excess of USD 87 /tonne, a far cry from 2015’s levels. While iron ore and steel futures did exhibit a slow-down last week, they jumped again on Monday by ~4% signalling the bullishness of the market. The latest 4-month rally has left a positive impression on market players, with mining giants such as Vale or BHP expecting a very strong year.
In any discussion regarding iron ore, it is important to take a look at the most influential nation in this market, China. While there has been some anxiety regarding China’s increasing production in 2017 (expected to increase by 0.5%, up to 825m metric tonnes), it is also important to note the increase in domestic demand, as China is expected to consume approx. 87% of this production.
Iron ore tends to follow Chinese steelmaking trends and the increase in infrastructure projects has driven up demand for steel, with Shanghai rebar hitting its highest price since February 2014. As China continues to provide support to the construction sector mainly through partnerships with private sector businesses on public infrastructure projects, this interior demand is expected to hold up for the rest of the year as well. This coupled with expected steel production limitations in 2017 leads to strong price expectations.
One variable to look at in 2017 is Trump’s alleged US infrastructure plan. While we have seen infrastructure spending affecting metal prices before, at this point there are not enough specifics to be able to draw a conclusion on whether this would provide any significant uptick on industrial metal prices or if indeed the promise itself will be materialized. It is worth noting that the 2009 US stimulus package which saw ~105bn going to infrastructure spending failed to produce a significant net effect on copper or steel prices.
While optimism continues to abound in most circles, various analysts are questioning whether this rally will be sustainable in the mid-long term with many of them expecting a softening of prices in the second half of 2017 due to the increase in Australian and Brazilian production.
In any case, this sustainable demand has had a noticeable effect on shipping markets and especially the Capesize segment, with today’s earnings quoted in excess of USD 8,000/day compared to the same time last year when average earnings for the size were hovering at around USD 2,300/day.
By Linos Kogevinas
Commercial Executive, Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 22 March 24
CASE STUDY: DANGERS OF COAL CARGO - SKULD
Recently, a bulk cargo vessel carrying coal from South Africa to Singapore suffered a fatal accident, resulting in the deaths of three crew members ...
Friday, 22 March 24
INDONESIA APPROVES 922.14 MLN T COAL PRODUCTION QUOTA FOR 2024, ABOVE TARGET - REUTERS
Indonesia has approved coal production quotas totalling 922.14 million metric tons for 2024, Bambang Suswantono, a senior official at the mining mi ...
Friday, 22 March 24
CHINA COAL INDUSTRY GROUP EXPECTS OUTPUT GROWTH TO SLOW IN 2024 - REUTERS
China’s coal output is expected to increase 36 million metric tons, or 0.8%, to about 4.7 billion tonnes in 2024, a Chinese coal industry gro ...
Monday, 18 March 24
THREE KEY TAKEAWAYS FROM OUR EUROPE GAS MARKETS SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK Q1 2024 - WOOD MACKENZIE
European gas prices are currently back to pre-crisis levels, but with a complex series of factors affecting future supply and demand, are they set ...
Wednesday, 06 March 24
INDONESIA AIMS TO FINISH MINING OUTPUT QUOTAS APPROVAL BY END-MARCH, OFFICIAL SAYS - REUTERS
Indonesia’s has approved the mining production quotarequests from more than 120mineral companies and aims to complete the approval process th ...
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- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
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