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Wednesday, 11 January 17
MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE DERMATIS
 A new year has dawned upon us and it sure promises to be an exciting one which makes it practically impossible to resist the challenge of making a forecast –especially when asked to do the first insight of the year. And given the range of variables ahead, let make it a bit harder; let’s take a closer look on the DRY sector which remains at the forefront of volatility and the inherent liquidity of assets creates paradoxical examples faster than we can justify why it happened.
Many were anticipating a sluggish start to the year due to a strong Q4, markets taking a step back as they digest Trump taking over on 20Jan17 and of course the “inevitable seasonal lullaby” caused by the upcoming Chinese New year -28th January. However, activity levels and appetite for new business thus far point to a different direction. Sentiment remains strongly positive and literature around a much healthier 2017 is already stacking up. Negative fleet growth, lower than expected actual orderbook, higher commodity prices, focus on higher infrastructure spending globally and increasing pressure on older tonnage through a tighter regulatory framework are becoming the flavor of the month and it’s becoming impossible to spot even ONE person that believes that 2017 will be similar –let alone worse- than 2016. Yes, sentiment plays a huge role but before talking about a self-fulfilling prophecy have we really sailed away from Scylla and Charybdis?
With Dow Jones, Nasdaq and other indices worldwide trading at historical highs, it is rather worrisome that Bankers observe such procrastination from investors towards new offerings as well as increasing criticism over the production potential of existing stocks. Most pundits believe that the commodity and energy post-election rally to be largely overvalued and we could soon see its flipside. Continuous delays on the Basel III implementation schedule seem to be short-term “wins” for the banking system but, truth be told, access to finance is not going to change until we see the new system being in place.
2016 was a record-setting year in the post-Lehman year in terms of sales transacted as well as asset value appreciations across all sizes but on the contrary demo activity –especially in the second half of 2016- dropped considerably and, god forbid, if deliveries-demolition balance looks as bad as the graph below, then we might reach a new dead-end. If you add to the equation a rising appetite and itchy fingers lining up for newbuilding orders due to low prices and Tier II regulations, it makes for an explosive “cocktail”.
Finally, don’t forget that when it comes to dry bulk Shipping in the new millennium, the determining factor was, is and will be China and they have two important milestones coming up -ahead of the implementation of its newly voted environmental tax law. Firstly, the timeline and extent of adopting to Basel III regulations and secondly, the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China will be held in Beijing, China in the autumn of 2017. The new 5-year-plan is the focal point of the Chinese economy and hopefully the trigger event for a truly happy year.
All in all, the industry has certainly found a footing BUT we need to remain rational, stay the course of recovery and manage expectations based on the fundamentals that have brought us to the present.
By George Dermatis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 22 March 24
CASE STUDY: DANGERS OF COAL CARGO - SKULD
Recently, a bulk cargo vessel carrying coal from South Africa to Singapore suffered a fatal accident, resulting in the deaths of three crew members ...
Friday, 22 March 24
INDONESIA APPROVES 922.14 MLN T COAL PRODUCTION QUOTA FOR 2024, ABOVE TARGET - REUTERS
Indonesia has approved coal production quotas totalling 922.14 million metric tons for 2024, Bambang Suswantono, a senior official at the mining mi ...
Friday, 22 March 24
CHINA COAL INDUSTRY GROUP EXPECTS OUTPUT GROWTH TO SLOW IN 2024 - REUTERS
China’s coal output is expected to increase 36 million metric tons, or 0.8%, to about 4.7 billion tonnes in 2024, a Chinese coal industry gro ...
Monday, 18 March 24
THREE KEY TAKEAWAYS FROM OUR EUROPE GAS MARKETS SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK Q1 2024 - WOOD MACKENZIE
European gas prices are currently back to pre-crisis levels, but with a complex series of factors affecting future supply and demand, are they set ...
Wednesday, 06 March 24
INDONESIA AIMS TO FINISH MINING OUTPUT QUOTAS APPROVAL BY END-MARCH, OFFICIAL SAYS - REUTERS
Indonesia’s has approved the mining production quotarequests from more than 120mineral companies and aims to complete the approval process th ...
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- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
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