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Thursday, 10 March 16
CHINA'S NEW POLICY PLAN COULD BE POSITIVE FOR SHIPPING, BUT TARGETS SEEM RATHER AMBITIOUS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
PanamaxChina set out its new policy plan during the course of the past weekend, but it seems to have set some very ambitious goals, which could be difficult to achieve, warns a relative analysis from Allied Shipbroking. The shipbroker noted that “after this week’s meeting by Chinese policy makers and their affirmation as to their determination to bolster growth and deal with some of the underlining issues that have fostered the recent slowdown in economic growth, the market was set alight with speculation amongst investors. Iron ore futures jumped by more than anything seen since 2009, though most of this lacking the necessary backing by what the actual market fundamentals are still saying. All this has been taken as a good sign, though it should be taken with a considerable “pinch of salt”, said Allied Shipbroking.

According to Allied’s, Mr. George Lazaridis, head of Market Research &Asset Valuations, “the problems faced by the Chinese economy are deep routed within the very approach taken by the government in terms of bolstering growth and more specifically in terms of how investments were handled. The grow over investment taken in the past faltered in its goal to provide the perceived growth outcome, as most of it ended up as unfinished goals (take for example the large number of scattered semi-finished real estate projects undertaken throughout the majority of China’s mainland) which never took up their role within the actual economy in order to generate the necessary returns to their investors and more importantly generate the increased productivity and growth in employment that they were poised to do. Equally so, this has been in part the decision of the Chinese government to cut back on the overcapacity noted in steel production (something that would essentially translate into a further curbing in demand for iron ore)”.

Lazaridis added that “what needs to be taking from all of this is hidden in the details, as well placed efforts within Chinese next stimulus plan could be used to bring about a quicker rebalancing of markets and in turn making a quick shift of the market trajectory back into high growth levels. After all some of the latest consumer data coming out of China paints a much better picture of how there are still well performing drivers in the market that could be utilised to generate growth. The main point though here is that this new round of stimulus has mounting pressure to be well targeted and seen through till the end so as to properly achieve the goals of the program. This will be a tough job, as in part the government has lost some of its credibility in regards to managing to guide the market properly, while at the same time it is taking up the challenge during a period were most of its manufacturing indices are pointing to a continual loss of steam”.

Allied’s analyst added that “in terms of this recent rally in iron ore, most expect it to be short lived, in part because there is still a considerable growth in iron ore supply over the next quarters of 2016, while at the same time demand for steel has yet to catch up. With a notable correction being seen in real estate prices in Chinese cities, we should start to see some of this feeding into the real economy, with the normal relationship between the raw material and demand for the manufactured product driving the next round of supply increases rather than speculative investments and non-materialised expectations of demand which have driven the steel market in the recent past”, Lazaridis concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News


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Monday, 16 May 16
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