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Monday, 08 February 16
DRY BULK: SHIPBROKER SEES BDI MARKET REACHING LOW POINT OF 236 POINTS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 The endless pit that is the dry bulk market over the past two months, has been the issue of debate among ship owners, shipbroker and analysts alike, as market delegates are looking for ways to cope with the record low freight rates and determine whether the market will go next. In its latest weekly report, shipbroker Allied Shipbroking said that “with January having closed off with record lows on almost all dry indices (the exception is for the Capesize index which thanks to a small rally during the final week managed to prop slightly higher than the low of 185 points that was achieved on the 19th), many are feeling the pressure and are worried that this market has no bottom and has turned into an endless black hole”.
According to Allied’s Head of Market Research & Asset Valuations, Mr. George Lazaridis, “the initial resistance point many believed the market would reach was at 345 in the BDI. This was reached this Tuesday, with quick softening followed on subsequent days easily breaking below this level. The next point in sight that it seems should provide some resistance to further drops should be at around 298 points”. This was also reached on Thursday, while Friday’s session saw thw BDI closing at 297 points. Lazaridis said that “to put this index value into perspective and given the current state of each of the individual markets, this point would refer to average TCE rates of the Capesize at around US$ 2,618pd, that of Panamaxes at US$ 2,161pd, Supramaxes at US$ 2,989pd and that of Handysizes at US$ 3,034pd.”
Yet, the main question still remains as to if this will really be a resistance level that will be hard to break. According to Lazaridis, “Logically there is a level at which the market just doesn’t make sense for anyone to trade below that point. This however depends on a number of factors with most prominent that of the time period that has passed under which the market has been receiving “subpar” rates. To explain this further, owners might be willing to accept abnormally low freight rates if they know it will only be for one-two voyages (i.e. it is a small glitch in the market). However, it is nonsensical to continually trade for long periods of time at a constant loss. Therefore, given the fact that we have been seeing these poor freight levels for around two months now and given the rumours of many owners in the market already looking seriously into their options in terms of cold lay-up, it makes sense to assume that we are under the case of the latter and are likely going to hit a level deemed as the absolute low the market can sustain for now”, Allied’s analyst noted.
He added: “Noting at the same time that we have already seen a break in the consecutive negative days posted in the Capesize market, it looks as though we can presume that this size segment might well have reached its absolute low under the current market conditions, fluctuating thereafter at levels just above and just below this until the market finds a foothold from where to improve. Taking the same premise however on all the other size segments and we see that this next theoretical resistance point will likely be reached easily within this week and could possibly drop even further”.
According to Lazaridis, “a more reasonable resistance level is likely going to prove to be at 236 points on the BDI, a level that will be hard to reach as it will require the combination of all four size segments reaching their theoretical “breaking points” at the same time, but given the market conditions we have seen over the past month, it doesn’t sound like it’s an unthinkable scenario either. Nevertheless, all this will prove to be theoretical, as in practice the market may well have further surprises down the road. The current levels are already well below what the majority of owners can sustain given their OPEX levels, as such pushing more and more to take up options such as that of scrapping or layingup vessels and in turn helping improve the supply side of things”. On the demand side of things many are hopeful of slightly better interest from Charterers after the Chinese New Year, however these hopes have faltered in the past and may well do again”, he concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide
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Wednesday, 03 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
November is here and soon the all time seasonal favorite “all I want or Christmas is you” by Mariah Carey will be played in radio stati ...
Monday, 01 November 21
COAL PRICES HAVE FURTHER ROOM TO DROP: TOP ECONOMIC PLANNER - GLOBAL TIMES
China’s top economic planner said coal prices have further room to drop on Friday, as the most traded coal futures dropped to below 1,000 yua ...
Saturday, 30 October 21
CHINA'S COAL PRICES SEE BIGGEST WEEKLY FALL IN MORE THAN 5 YEARS - REUTERS
China’s coal futures prices saw their biggest fall in more than five years after the powerful state planner said there is still room to adjus ...
Saturday, 30 October 21
G-20 LEADERS PREPARE STATEMENT TO STOP FUNDING FOREIGN COAL PLANTS - BLOOMBERG
Leaders of the Group of 20 wealthy economies are preparing to pledge to stop funding foreign coal-fired plants, but are still wrangling over climat ...
Friday, 29 October 21
APAC THERMAL COAL SUPPLY TO REMAIN TIGHT AS WINTER LOOMS - FITCH RATINGS
APAC thermal coal prices have surged, hitting historically high levels. The benchmark Newcastle 6,000kcal/kg grade coal reached USD228/tonne in mid ...
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- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- White Energy Company Limited
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
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