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Monday, 08 February 16
DRY BULK: SHIPBROKER SEES BDI MARKET REACHING LOW POINT OF 236 POINTS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 The endless pit that is the dry bulk market over the past two months, has been the issue of debate among ship owners, shipbroker and analysts alike, as market delegates are looking for ways to cope with the record low freight rates and determine whether the market will go next. In its latest weekly report, shipbroker Allied Shipbroking said that “with January having closed off with record lows on almost all dry indices (the exception is for the Capesize index which thanks to a small rally during the final week managed to prop slightly higher than the low of 185 points that was achieved on the 19th), many are feeling the pressure and are worried that this market has no bottom and has turned into an endless black hole”.
According to Allied’s Head of Market Research & Asset Valuations, Mr. George Lazaridis, “the initial resistance point many believed the market would reach was at 345 in the BDI. This was reached this Tuesday, with quick softening followed on subsequent days easily breaking below this level. The next point in sight that it seems should provide some resistance to further drops should be at around 298 points”. This was also reached on Thursday, while Friday’s session saw thw BDI closing at 297 points. Lazaridis said that “to put this index value into perspective and given the current state of each of the individual markets, this point would refer to average TCE rates of the Capesize at around US$ 2,618pd, that of Panamaxes at US$ 2,161pd, Supramaxes at US$ 2,989pd and that of Handysizes at US$ 3,034pd.”
Yet, the main question still remains as to if this will really be a resistance level that will be hard to break. According to Lazaridis, “Logically there is a level at which the market just doesn’t make sense for anyone to trade below that point. This however depends on a number of factors with most prominent that of the time period that has passed under which the market has been receiving “subpar” rates. To explain this further, owners might be willing to accept abnormally low freight rates if they know it will only be for one-two voyages (i.e. it is a small glitch in the market). However, it is nonsensical to continually trade for long periods of time at a constant loss. Therefore, given the fact that we have been seeing these poor freight levels for around two months now and given the rumours of many owners in the market already looking seriously into their options in terms of cold lay-up, it makes sense to assume that we are under the case of the latter and are likely going to hit a level deemed as the absolute low the market can sustain for now”, Allied’s analyst noted.
He added: “Noting at the same time that we have already seen a break in the consecutive negative days posted in the Capesize market, it looks as though we can presume that this size segment might well have reached its absolute low under the current market conditions, fluctuating thereafter at levels just above and just below this until the market finds a foothold from where to improve. Taking the same premise however on all the other size segments and we see that this next theoretical resistance point will likely be reached easily within this week and could possibly drop even further”.
According to Lazaridis, “a more reasonable resistance level is likely going to prove to be at 236 points on the BDI, a level that will be hard to reach as it will require the combination of all four size segments reaching their theoretical “breaking points” at the same time, but given the market conditions we have seen over the past month, it doesn’t sound like it’s an unthinkable scenario either. Nevertheless, all this will prove to be theoretical, as in practice the market may well have further surprises down the road. The current levels are already well below what the majority of owners can sustain given their OPEX levels, as such pushing more and more to take up options such as that of scrapping or layingup vessels and in turn helping improve the supply side of things”. On the demand side of things many are hopeful of slightly better interest from Charterers after the Chinese New Year, however these hopes have faltered in the past and may well do again”, he concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide
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Friday, 22 March 24
CASE STUDY: DANGERS OF COAL CARGO - SKULD
Recently, a bulk cargo vessel carrying coal from South Africa to Singapore suffered a fatal accident, resulting in the deaths of three crew members ...
Friday, 22 March 24
INDONESIA APPROVES 922.14 MLN T COAL PRODUCTION QUOTA FOR 2024, ABOVE TARGET - REUTERS
Indonesia has approved coal production quotas totalling 922.14 million metric tons for 2024, Bambang Suswantono, a senior official at the mining mi ...
Friday, 22 March 24
CHINA COAL INDUSTRY GROUP EXPECTS OUTPUT GROWTH TO SLOW IN 2024 - REUTERS
China’s coal output is expected to increase 36 million metric tons, or 0.8%, to about 4.7 billion tonnes in 2024, a Chinese coal industry gro ...
Monday, 18 March 24
THREE KEY TAKEAWAYS FROM OUR EUROPE GAS MARKETS SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK Q1 2024 - WOOD MACKENZIE
European gas prices are currently back to pre-crisis levels, but with a complex series of factors affecting future supply and demand, are they set ...
Wednesday, 06 March 24
INDONESIA AIMS TO FINISH MINING OUTPUT QUOTAS APPROVAL BY END-MARCH, OFFICIAL SAYS - REUTERS
Indonesia’s has approved the mining production quotarequests from more than 120mineral companies and aims to complete the approval process th ...
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- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- The University of Queensland
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
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