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Wednesday, 20 January 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - NASOS SOULAKIS
 If you believe in the “January effect”, the theory according to which the beginning of a new year has a positive effect on financial indicators, then stock markets across the world have been set to disappoint you this year.
China’s stock market is leading the way, having lost about 20% of its value since December; a free fall that was suspended only after automatic procedures that halted any transactions came into effect. Even though some analysts have blamed structural particularities of the Chinese stock market itself for the magnitude of this sharp fall, no one should rule out the fact that beyond structural problems and non-efficiencies, the downward move could very well be the long-overdue bursting of the Chinese stock bubble.
The same negative course, during the first days of the year, was followed by the rest of the stock markets in the United States and in Europe. In particular, both the NASDAQ and the Dow Jones indices are facing their worst month during the last seven years. Energy stocks like BP or Exxon are under severe pressure, impacted by falling oil prices that are now below $30/barrel for the first time after more than 13 years and with numerous market experts believing that it may even fall below $20/barrel in the next months.
If this wasn’t enough, Iran, having been out of the market for ten years is about to add its own oil production to the global supply; a fact that will exert further pressure on prices. This is expected to generate additional stress on the rest of the oil producing countries.
Besides Iran, whose economy is expected to undergo a major boom, tanker owners are among the few winners of the aforementioned developments. Tanker rates remain at very satisfactory levels, although owners are cautious on whether rates can be sustained at these levels or if they will experience a downward correction during 2016. Last week’s sharp fall in the crude carriers market acted as a definite reminder of how volatility, which hasn't been experienced much on the tanker side since the end of 2014, can quickly result in profits evaporating and further added to owners concerns for this year. This is already being observed in the second hand market where owners are developing modern vessels for sale, particularly MRs, something that could possibly lead to a short term oversupply of sale candidates and drive prices south depending of course on whether owners are actually willing to sell or if they are just testing the market.
At the same time, the dry bulk market is still struggling, with consecutive historical lows marked last week again. This has significantly affected market sentiment and it has now become a widespread opinion that 2016 will mark the absolute bottom. A point of optimism is the fact that big players that abstained from the dry bulk investments for a while, like East Med or Anangel, are now stepping off the sidelines and doing so by investing mostly on larger vessels like Capes, these being currently sold at the highest discount in the second hand market.
In this rather unstable environment and on the background of an explosive geopolitical environment one thing remains certain and this is that the shipping industry is facing one of the most challenging and interesting times in its history.
Besides the “January effect” there is also the “January barometer” hypothesis, which states that the first month of the year sets the tone for the entire year. From our side, let us just hope that this will not be the case for 2016.
By Nasos Soulakis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Friday, 22 March 24
CASE STUDY: DANGERS OF COAL CARGO - SKULD
Recently, a bulk cargo vessel carrying coal from South Africa to Singapore suffered a fatal accident, resulting in the deaths of three crew members ...
Friday, 22 March 24
INDONESIA APPROVES 922.14 MLN T COAL PRODUCTION QUOTA FOR 2024, ABOVE TARGET - REUTERS
Indonesia has approved coal production quotas totalling 922.14 million metric tons for 2024, Bambang Suswantono, a senior official at the mining mi ...
Friday, 22 March 24
CHINA COAL INDUSTRY GROUP EXPECTS OUTPUT GROWTH TO SLOW IN 2024 - REUTERS
China’s coal output is expected to increase 36 million metric tons, or 0.8%, to about 4.7 billion tonnes in 2024, a Chinese coal industry gro ...
Monday, 18 March 24
THREE KEY TAKEAWAYS FROM OUR EUROPE GAS MARKETS SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK Q1 2024 - WOOD MACKENZIE
European gas prices are currently back to pre-crisis levels, but with a complex series of factors affecting future supply and demand, are they set ...
Wednesday, 06 March 24
INDONESIA AIMS TO FINISH MINING OUTPUT QUOTAS APPROVAL BY END-MARCH, OFFICIAL SAYS - REUTERS
Indonesia’s has approved the mining production quotarequests from more than 120mineral companies and aims to complete the approval process th ...
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- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Australian Coal Association
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
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