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Thursday, 08 October 15
CAPESIZE: MOST PEOPLE AGREE A SPIKE IN RATES WILL HAPPEN; WHEN, HOW LONG AND HOW SUBSTANTIAL? - FEARNLEYS
Fearnleys logoCape
Depressives start of the fourth quarter, with c3 approaching USD 12 pmt and c5 presently in the mind 5's. According to Fearnleys ship broker, there is still hope rates will improve when the Chinese are back from holidays, although it seems unlikely given the drop in rates on the last date of the break.

The Fearnleys weekly report indicated that, period rates have been under pressure accordingly, and owners with the period tonnage tend to fix their ships for shorter duration voyages whilst awaiting better rates; most people agree a spike in rates will happen, the question is when, how long it will last and how substantial the improvement in rates will be.

Panamax
While commenting on Panamax, the broker noted that, despite the Chinese being off most of the week, the market is holding surprisingly well in both hemispheres. Expectations for Q4 in general and for USG in particular have contributed to Owners upping rates for trips out. 12800 + 280 was done from USG early week.

The report further said that, Transatlantic activity is bit reduced and not showing the same strength. However, Owners are able to secure a tick better levels, up to around 5-6 K. Pacific activity is limited, but some stronger fixtures are being reported; above 7,000 for Aussies rounds and above 8,000 for trips to India. The forward curve is moving sideways with a clear backwardation for Q1. Period activity also a bit subdued with levels in the 7's for short medium duration.

Handy
Chinese Golden Week has had a market effect on the activity levels this past week. In the Far East, rates are still flat and below the index, giving little reason for a paper rally. In the Atlantic the story is the same. Most players are hoping things pick  up once China is back, that next week's Coaltrans is over, The lack of activity and mismatch between the paper and physical market has slowed period fixing, Only a couple of fixed price deals have been rumoured, said Fearnleys in its latest weekly report.


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