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Thursday, 17 September 15
MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KONTOMICHIS
Intermodal LogoHaving experienced, as it was much anticipated, a poor 1st half combined with negative forecasts, summer, in sharp contrast, proved to be more hopeful for Dry Bulk owners. Following several months of rates barely above or even below OPEX, bulk carriers started to enjoy better rates sometime in the beginning of July. In the 3rd quarter, charterers became admittedly more active, absorbed more units and provided healthier rates. Consequently, higher returns started covering operational costs and gave a huge relief to managing companies that in their majority were counting losses for a long period of time, during which the S&P market aligned with the freight market.

In February the modern Kamsarmax M/V Flora Island (Abt 81k dwt 2012 Blt Korea) was sold at $18.4 mill. Later in June, the M/V Miraero Brave (Abt 81k dwt 2012 Blt Korea) was sold at a shade lower, $17.8 mill, obviously due to the negative pressure exerted on rates at the time. However in July the BDI started correcting upward and the similar vessel M/V Asita Sun (Abt 81k dwt 2012 Blt Korea) was been fixed at $20.2 mill, followed by its near sister vessel M/V Pinchat (Abt 81k dwt 2012 Blt Korea), the sale of which took place in August at $21.5 mill.

During the last few weeks, market sentiment is changing over again with the BDI now moving well below the 1,000 point threshold. Is it only a matter of time before asset prices follow along? During 2015 so far the index fell to 509 points and bounced back to 1222 points in August. Yet, even within this volatile environment the price of a 2012 Kamsarmax vessel increased by 16%. Today the BDI is approaching 800 points.

Financial instabilities that prevail in the majority of the developed countries together with the macroeconomic troubles that the rest of developing economies are facing, has resulted in the weakening of global trade that is severely affecting the Dry Bulk market. The future remains unsure. The constant growth in production of commodities is not only ensuring ample supply but also attractive prices. As demand growth for some of these commodities is faltering due to slower global economic growth, concerns that tonnage supply, despite all the scrapping, might still be too much in the medium term, remain present.

While waiting for a definitive market recovery, these ups and downs at the bottom of the shipping cycle create great short-term buying opportunities. When someone who is deciding which sector to invest in, is thinking about the condition of the global economy, the “ocean” might still be one of the safer ones out there.
By Konstantinos Kontomichis
SnP Broker

Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations

Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima


Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.

Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.


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