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Thursday, 10 September 15
IF NOT NOW, WHEN? - GIANNIS ANDRITSOPOULOS
Our industry is well known to be cyclical with some cycles lasting longer than others. Despite the fact that these shifts in the behavior of the freight market are hardly a surprise anymore, the bottom of each cycle will always find some market participants better prepared than others, having made provisions for the difficult days that follow a period of healthy rates.
The fall in rates naturally succeeds a good period in the market that is characterized by increased freight rates and high asset values. When this fall is combined with low demolition activity and overwhelming deliveries, oversupply of tonnage is the natural consequence. Many owners believe that the bottom of each cycle offers the market a chance to find its balance, while at the same time it also presents buying opportunities that owners can capitalize on once the rebound in rates finally comes.
If we focus on what has been happening during the last three quarters of the year and how the freight market has moved from very low to healthier levels, it is evident that despite the fact that demand cannot be predicted and safely placed into the trade equation, increased demolition and decelerating order books are definitely pushing towards the right direction.
Looking at the year to date period, an interesting point is that buying interest expressed by some owners that usually focus their activity on wet tonnage, has now oriented towards second hand Dry Bulk vessels. The attractive secondhand values over at the Dry Bulk market seem to have convinced non-traditional Dry Bulk owners to invest in the sector, with modern units that are currently priced well below the respective new building assets, luring most of the market interest.
In the first quarter of the year we only saw a small number of second-hand transactions concluding when compared to the number of inspections performed, while as we headed towards the second quarter, the number of buyers in the second hand dry bulk market increased impressively despite the fact that the BDI had hardly moved.
Having as a starting point the sale of the “PRABHU MOHINI” (82,000dwt, ‘11 blt 2011, S. Korea) at low $17.0m back in the beginning of April up to the sale of the “PINCHAT (81,290dwt, ‘12 blt, S. Korea) at $21.5m a couple of weeks ago, we see a gradual improvement in asset values that has not been affected by the ups and downs of the BDI during the second half of the summer season.
Is therefore now the time for an owner who is determined and can support the acquisition of a vessel for a few years to invest in the second-hand market? With the last done for a Japanese Supramax blt ‘08 at $10.8m and the last done for a Japanese Handysize blt ‘11 at $10.0m, the argument for acquisitions is definitely strong.
Predicting the bottom or the top of the cycle is fairly impossible. Back in 2005 owners who acquired second-hand tonnage had to watch rates fall for more than a year most probably thinking; ”Game Over”. Yet a bit later on and for the next two years, their uncertainty was replaced by the feeling of absolute success and the rest is history. We are not suggesting that asset values could over-perform in the same way they did back then..but saying this, is anyone convinced that there is no significant upside to current levels?
By Giannis Andritsopoulos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 03 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
November is here and soon the all time seasonal favorite “all I want or Christmas is you” by Mariah Carey will be played in radio stati ...
Monday, 01 November 21
COAL PRICES HAVE FURTHER ROOM TO DROP: TOP ECONOMIC PLANNER - GLOBAL TIMES
China’s top economic planner said coal prices have further room to drop on Friday, as the most traded coal futures dropped to below 1,000 yua ...
Saturday, 30 October 21
CHINA'S COAL PRICES SEE BIGGEST WEEKLY FALL IN MORE THAN 5 YEARS - REUTERS
China’s coal futures prices saw their biggest fall in more than five years after the powerful state planner said there is still room to adjus ...
Saturday, 30 October 21
G-20 LEADERS PREPARE STATEMENT TO STOP FUNDING FOREIGN COAL PLANTS - BLOOMBERG
Leaders of the Group of 20 wealthy economies are preparing to pledge to stop funding foreign coal-fired plants, but are still wrangling over climat ...
Friday, 29 October 21
APAC THERMAL COAL SUPPLY TO REMAIN TIGHT AS WINTER LOOMS - FITCH RATINGS
APAC thermal coal prices have surged, hitting historically high levels. The benchmark Newcastle 6,000kcal/kg grade coal reached USD228/tonne in mid ...
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- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
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