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Friday, 20 March 15
HARD COAL MARKET 2014: DESPITE THE ENERGY TURNAROUND, HARD COAL IMPORTS TO GERMANY RISE BY MORE THAN 6% (PART 1)
 German Coal Importer AssociationHard Coal Market 2014: Despite The Energy Turnaround, Hard Coal Imports To Germany Rise By More Than 6%, Although Hard Coal-Fired Power Generation Declines (Part 1)

The German Coal Importer Association (VDKi) has prepared the initial consolidated estimates for the global, European and German hard coal market for all of 2014. Although the growth of production globally stagnated with around 7.2bn tonnes, the seaborne trade growth increased by 5% compared to 2013. Hard coal imports to Germany reached an all-time high at 56m tonnes.

World output

The VDKi estimates that global hard coal production last year (7.2bn tonnes) remained at the level of 2013. The most important factors:

- Slowing economic growth and weakened growth in the demand for electric power in Asia, especially in China;

- Newly introduced regulations implemented in China, prompted by environmental protection concerns, prohibiting the burning of low-calorific coal with high ash and sulphur content, especially in densely populated urban areas;

- Accelerating replacement of coal in the USA with low-priced shale gas for power generation and environmental protection regulations for power plants, which caused early closures;

- Reduction of overcapacities in the form of mine shutdowns, temporarily shut down of mines or cutbacks in production in hard coal mining owing to low world market prices and the cancellation or slower development of new coal projects, e.g. in Australia or the USA;

- Regulatory interventions in coal mining, e.g. in Indonesia.

However, there were differences in the way the industry developed in the various countries.

- For the first time since 1998, China produced less coal, a decline of 2.5%. With a total output of 3.87bn tonnes about 90m to 100m tonnes less hard coal was extracted. Moreover, hard coal imports to China fell by 36m tonnes (11%) to 292m tonnes. Coal quality requirements concerning ash and sulphur content in coal used for power generation as well as calorific values were introduced to reduce air pollution in 2014. Inner Mongolia alone, China’s second-largest coal region, therefore reduced output compared to 2013 by 86m tonnes (almost 12%) to 908m tonnes in 2014, while the two other coal regions (Shanxi and Shaanxi) increased production by 1.5% and 3.6% to 977m tonnes and 511m tonnes, respectively.

- India will probably not reach its hard coal production target. The largest state mining company, Coal India Ltd. (CIL), reported that output in the 11 months from April 2013 to February 2014 (the fiscal year in India starts on 1st of April and ends 31st of March the following year) of 437m tonnes was about 3% below the target of 450m tonnes for this period.

- In the USA, output in many mines was throttled, especially in 2013, while other mines were shut down completely. The greater use of coal in place of gas for power generation resulted solely from the cold weather conditions in January and February 2014 and the explosion in gas prices which resulted. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates that coal production in 2014 rose again slightly by 17,2m tonnes to 904 m tonnes in comparison with 2013, and coal consumption for power generation fell only slightly by 6,4m tonnes (0.8%) over the previous year.

- In Australia, only a few mines were closed while new projects were postponed; however, cost cutbacks and, in some cases, production increases using the same level of personnel and equipment were initiated everywhere. Estimates by the Australian Ministry of Industry (Resources and Energy Quarterly, December 2014) indicate that there was an increase in coking coal production of 4.7% to 189m tonnes and in steam coal production of 2.1% to 250m tonnes.
 
- In Indonesia, production of hard, including low-calorific (sub-bituminous) coal, declined in 2014 for the first time in many years by 3.5% to about 407m tonnes. The most important reasons for this decline are the increase in royalties for certain mining companies, the low price level (which prompted some mining companies to reduce output) and the introduction of an export licence system in October 2014. Many companies exporting hard coal were unable to obtain the licence early enough because of bureaucratic requirements and were therefore not able to export coal. A contrary effect came from the devaluation of the Indonesian rupiah in relation to the US dollar and falling diesel prices that favoured production because the largest expenditures for coal production must be paid in domestic currency.

- Other countries such as South Africa, Colombia and especially Russia were also able to compensate for declining world market prices by the devaluation of the domestic currency against the US dollar and could even increase their competitiveness because they paid their major expenditures for coal production in domestic currency while receiving payment for the exported coal in US dollars.

As a consequence, the following countries increased their output in 2014 over the comparable period of the previous year:

- South Africa to presumably 265m tonnes (= +3.6%),
- Colombia to 75m tonnes (= about +2%) and
- Russia to 356m tonnes (= +2.6%)


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