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Wednesday, 20 August 14
DRY BULK MARKET TO REBOUND IN THE FOURTH QUARTER, OR NOT....- NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 The projected rebound of the dry bulk market is still an elusive trend and shipbrokers and analysts are looking to identify the timing of the looming rally. According to the latest monthly report from shipbroker Intermodal, “it has without a doubt been “a cruel, cruel summer” for the dry bulk market so far and with second hand values still standing high com-pared to last year, the anticipation for the freight market to recover, feels a bit more intense than usual. So what could Q4 be holding for dry bulkers? Are we in for a similar end of year surge like the one witnessed last year”, wondered Eva Tzima, Research Analyst with Intermodal.
According to the analyst, “in the case of the Capesize segment, all eyes are currently turned on China and the iron ore trade. In the beginning of the month, stock-piles at the country’s ports stood at record high levels. Although high levels of iron ore inventory usually reflect that strong steel production is anticipated, it doesn’t look like this is the case here. While steel production levels have been kept high throughout the first half of 2014, profits for the steelmaking industry have been sluggish. This most likely means that production remained at high levels through-out the year due to the Chinese government’s efforts to sustain growth with direct investments in the industry and in anticipation of greater future demand, a demand which has yet to be witnessed”.
Tzima added that “the continuously declining price of the commodity, which in June reached its lowest level since September 2012 has also sustained port inventories at high levels, despite the fact that end demand wasn’t keeping up pace. If we look back in the summer of 2013 things were dramatically different, with port inventories standing well below the historical average, at around 70 million tonnes, compared to 113.65 million tonnes a few weeks ago. Since the restocking started in September of 2013, inventory levels have been on an upward trend, currently leaving little space for aggressive imports and even less room for Cape rates to thrive in the same way they did during the last quarter of last year.
Moving on to the smaller size segments, the upcoming grain season is what the market is currently focusing on and it looks like grains might come to the rescue this year as well. Europe has been witnessing excessive rainfall lately and as a result, the harvest, in France, Germany and other traditional grain producers, is being delayed and its quality jeopardized” she noted.
According to Intermodal’s analyst, “this means that the EU will have to intensify its imports and consequently help seaborne trade volumes, with business in the Black Sea being the first beneficiary in line. In fact, Russia is currently exporting wheat at record pace, as despite sanctions short term finance has not been affected and therefore wheat trade is not being obstructed. Ukraine’s exports are also due to keep the Black Sea busy, while both countries are experiencing a near record harvest”.
Meanwhile, “moving on to the other side of the Atlantic, the US has been con-firming that a bumper harvest is expected, while at the same time prices for the US grains have been fairing at very attractive levels. Similarly to the last quarter of 2013, it looks like Brazil will once again play an important role in the performance of the USG business in the following months. The country has temporarily eliminated the Common External Tariff, which is traditionally imposed on imports from non-Mercosul countries. An identical policy was set last sum-mer, just in time before North American wheat cargoes en-route to Brazil started flooding the USG and pushing rates for the geared sizes up. With Brazil being uncertain as to whether Argentina would be able to satisfy this year’s demand either, the country has again distanced itself from its traditional wheat supplier and a similar rec-ord volume of US imports is anticipated this year as well”, she noted.
Tzima concluded that “so it could well be the case that during Q4 we end up witnessing a market of two speeds, with the performance of the Capesize market lugging behind that of the geared sizes, as China appears to have turned its back on Capers for now. We are always in for a good surprise that could come in the form of stronger stimulus by the Chinese government or an upward revision of global growth. Any hypothesis aside though, my sense is that we have hyper inflated our expectations for the last quarter of the year, in the same way we did at the end of 2013 for the entire 2014, while in terms of tonnage performance; bigger might not be better this fall”.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Friday, 22 March 24
CASE STUDY: DANGERS OF COAL CARGO - SKULD
Recently, a bulk cargo vessel carrying coal from South Africa to Singapore suffered a fatal accident, resulting in the deaths of three crew members ...
Friday, 22 March 24
INDONESIA APPROVES 922.14 MLN T COAL PRODUCTION QUOTA FOR 2024, ABOVE TARGET - REUTERS
Indonesia has approved coal production quotas totalling 922.14 million metric tons for 2024, Bambang Suswantono, a senior official at the mining mi ...
Friday, 22 March 24
CHINA COAL INDUSTRY GROUP EXPECTS OUTPUT GROWTH TO SLOW IN 2024 - REUTERS
China’s coal output is expected to increase 36 million metric tons, or 0.8%, to about 4.7 billion tonnes in 2024, a Chinese coal industry gro ...
Monday, 18 March 24
THREE KEY TAKEAWAYS FROM OUR EUROPE GAS MARKETS SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK Q1 2024 - WOOD MACKENZIE
European gas prices are currently back to pre-crisis levels, but with a complex series of factors affecting future supply and demand, are they set ...
Wednesday, 06 March 24
INDONESIA AIMS TO FINISH MINING OUTPUT QUOTAS APPROVAL BY END-MARCH, OFFICIAL SAYS - REUTERS
Indonesia’s has approved the mining production quotarequests from more than 120mineral companies and aims to complete the approval process th ...
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- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The University of Queensland
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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