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Thursday, 13 June 13
BIMCO EXPECTS SUBDUED CAPESIZE EARNINGS FOR THE COMING WEEKS - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 Bulk is not only about China even though it is a key driver. In this section, we have taken a closer look at the European seaborne coal markets, which is going through some interesting times right now. European coal demand has been in a slump ever since early 2009, where seaborne demand fell by 14 million tons from the first to the second quarter. Import volumes during the last three quarters of 2011 indicated that seaborne coal demand was recovering, but the development stalled somewhat in 2012. Looking on a country basis, the nation with the biggest decline was Italy, with annual seaborne imports being roughly 8 million tons lower today than before the financial crisis. France has also decreased its imports by around 4-5 million tons annually. The United Kingdom and Spain have weakened as well, but these countries seem to be on a rebound, with volumes being slightly below pre-financial crisis levels. The Netherlands and Germany have had relatively stable import numbers since 2005.
The bulk of seaborne coal going to Europe comes from North America, Colombia and Russia. The United States and Colombia have doubled their exports to Europe, while Russia has maintained its share of the European demand. Russian coal is shipped from both Russian and Latvian ports; Colombian coal is primarily shipped from the Caribbean, while US coal is primarily shipped from the Atlantic Coast and the Mexican Gulf. The drop in European seaborne demand for coal did not affect these countries, but rather South Africa. From being the single largest coal exporter to Europe with 52.0 million tons in 2005, the country has become a footnote, with 13.6 million tons in 2011. This represents bad business for the shipping industry, since the sailing distance from Richards Bay to Rotterdam is 98% longer than from Hampton Roads and 61% longer than from Puerto Bolivar.
Although European coal imports didn’t tell a particular positive story for shipping, US exports most certainly did. We expect to publish a story on this within the next couple of weeks.
On a more general note regarding the bulk market, China is expected to increase its imports of wheat, as sub-standard storage facilities have damaged a part of the huge Chinese stockpiles. Traders said that China is seeking to increase imports when global prices are in a slump. Current forward prices indicate that this may happen during the third quarter of 2013. According to Chinese customs statistics, the main exporters of wheat to China are Australia, Canada and United States, the latter two providing significant tonne miles.
Meanwhile, Argentina is exporting record high volumes of grains; CRSL reported that Argentina exported 4.86 million tons of grains in March – the highest number ever for a single month. This gave a spike in Panamax rates with the BPI staying just below the psychological barrier of USD 10,000 per day in March and April, but earnings are now slightly lower at around USD 7,000 per day. In our last report, we predicted that Panamax rates would stay in the USD 5,000-10,000 per day territory; going forward seasonal events like Argentinian exports are likely to provide for the upside ticks.
SUPPLY
New dry bulk deliveries walk the anticipated line and have now reached 29 million DWT. Meanwhile, 11 million DWT have been sold for recycling, which brings the year-to-date fleet growth up to 2.8%. The inflow is seen primarily in the Panamax segment, where 136 (in 2012: 162) new vessels are keeping Panamax fleet growth high. Simultaneously, the Capesize segment only saw 48 (in 2012: 115) new vessels coming on stream, eventually easing some of the pain from the current overcapacity.
Average age and size of the demolished tonnage is 28 years and 60,000 DWT. In line with the development seen in the last couple of years, the average age is still trending down – whereas the average size is essentially unchanged. BIMCO forecasts a slightly lower level of tonnage being demolished in 2013 as compared to last year; however, it is still going to be the second-largest year on record. The solid level of demolition prices will inspire owners to consider recycling, rather than trading their old tonnage in a very volatile market without certainty of sustainable freight rates and against more energy efficient tonnage.
As regards the orderbook, it’s also moving in the right direction in spite of the recent flurry of new orders for more fuel-efficient tonnage. During the past 10 weeks the number of newbuilding orders in the book has come down from 1,599 to 1,548. Finally, on the ordering side, strong interest in Capesizes remains evident, with 62 new orders in 2013. A total of 18 million DWT has been ordered in the year so far, with March and April seeing total new orders placed in excess of 4.5 million DWT each month.
OUTLOOK
The Summer lull is creeping up on dry bulk shipping demand following the successful South American grain season. Fortunately, solid demand is keeping spirits up in the dry bulk industry, while the severe extent of overcapacity is pushing the date for a full-blown recovery of earnings into a somewhat distant future. For now the market is getting more and more spot focused, as no owners want to commit tonnage for longer terms at offered levels. Don’t look at the paper market for any support, because you won’t find it. FFA indications (10/6) for Capesize tonnage go to the tune of USD per day: Q3-13, Q4-13, Cal 14 and Cal 15: 7,550, 12,000, 11,450 and 13,700 and for Supramax the indications go as follows in USD per day for the same dates: 7,900, 8,400, 8,600 and 8,900. USD per day in the spot market (10/6): Capesize for 5,571 and Supramax for 9,307.
Expect the unexpected from the dry bulk market seems to be the message passed on in recent years – and today is no different, as Handysize tonnage is earning USD 10,900 per day on an Atlantic round voyage whereas Capesizes are struggling to get a 1 year T/C fixed at USD 10,500 per day if at all. With respect to freight rates for Panamax and Supramax tonnage, they have lost ground since the beginning of March.
To sum up, our forecast for the coming 6 weeks: BIMCO holds the view that Capesize TC average rates are expected to remain subdued around USD 4,500-7,500 per day. Panamax is expected to stay in the USD 4,500-8,000 per day interval. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 7,000-10,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are forecast to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-8,500 per day.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping News
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Friday, 28 June 24
INDIAN POWER STATIONS STOCKED WITH BUMPER COAL SUPPLY AS TRANSPORT WOES EASE - BUSINESS STANDARD
Even as power demand has touched a historic high of 250 gigawatts (Gw) amid sweltering heat this June, India’s power stations are stocked wit ...
Friday, 28 June 24
INDIA'S CY23 COAL USE LARGER THAN NORTH AMERICA, EUROPE COMBINED - THE HINDU
For the first time, India’s coal consumption surpassed that of North America and Europe combined in the calendar year 2023, said Energy Insti ...
Monday, 24 June 24
PLN'S FINANCIAL SUSTAINABILITY RESTS ON ACCELERATED COAL RETIREMENT AND RENEWABLES DEPLOYMENT - MUTYA YUSTIKA
On 28 May 2024, Indonesia’s national electricity utility, PT Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN), released its financial report for 2023. Althoug ...
Monday, 24 June 24
INDIA'S COAL-BASED POWER DEMAND AT ALL-TIME HIGH, GOVERNMENT SAYS - REUTERS
India’s demand for coal-based power has risen by 7.3% this fiscal year to an all-time high, the government said in a statement on Wednesday.
...
Monday, 24 June 24
CHINA'S COAL INDUSTRY TURNS GREENER THROUGH INNOVATIVE APPROACHES - PEOPLE'S DAILY
At an opencast mine operated by Inner Mongolia Pingzhuang Coal Group Co. Ltd., a subsidiary of CHN Energy Investment Group (CHN Energy), a 14-meter ...
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Showing 11 to 15 news of total 6871 |
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- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Planning Commission, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The University of Queensland
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
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