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Thursday, 13 June 13
BIMCO EXPECTS SUBDUED CAPESIZE EARNINGS FOR THE COMING WEEKS - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 Bulk is not only about China even though it is a key driver. In this section, we have taken a closer look at the European seaborne coal markets, which is going through some interesting times right now. European coal demand has been in a slump ever since early 2009, where seaborne demand fell by 14 million tons from the first to the second quarter. Import volumes during the last three quarters of 2011 indicated that seaborne coal demand was recovering, but the development stalled somewhat in 2012. Looking on a country basis, the nation with the biggest decline was Italy, with annual seaborne imports being roughly 8 million tons lower today than before the financial crisis. France has also decreased its imports by around 4-5 million tons annually. The United Kingdom and Spain have weakened as well, but these countries seem to be on a rebound, with volumes being slightly below pre-financial crisis levels. The Netherlands and Germany have had relatively stable import numbers since 2005.
The bulk of seaborne coal going to Europe comes from North America, Colombia and Russia. The United States and Colombia have doubled their exports to Europe, while Russia has maintained its share of the European demand. Russian coal is shipped from both Russian and Latvian ports; Colombian coal is primarily shipped from the Caribbean, while US coal is primarily shipped from the Atlantic Coast and the Mexican Gulf. The drop in European seaborne demand for coal did not affect these countries, but rather South Africa. From being the single largest coal exporter to Europe with 52.0 million tons in 2005, the country has become a footnote, with 13.6 million tons in 2011. This represents bad business for the shipping industry, since the sailing distance from Richards Bay to Rotterdam is 98% longer than from Hampton Roads and 61% longer than from Puerto Bolivar.
Although European coal imports didn’t tell a particular positive story for shipping, US exports most certainly did. We expect to publish a story on this within the next couple of weeks.
On a more general note regarding the bulk market, China is expected to increase its imports of wheat, as sub-standard storage facilities have damaged a part of the huge Chinese stockpiles. Traders said that China is seeking to increase imports when global prices are in a slump. Current forward prices indicate that this may happen during the third quarter of 2013. According to Chinese customs statistics, the main exporters of wheat to China are Australia, Canada and United States, the latter two providing significant tonne miles.
Meanwhile, Argentina is exporting record high volumes of grains; CRSL reported that Argentina exported 4.86 million tons of grains in March – the highest number ever for a single month. This gave a spike in Panamax rates with the BPI staying just below the psychological barrier of USD 10,000 per day in March and April, but earnings are now slightly lower at around USD 7,000 per day. In our last report, we predicted that Panamax rates would stay in the USD 5,000-10,000 per day territory; going forward seasonal events like Argentinian exports are likely to provide for the upside ticks.
SUPPLY
New dry bulk deliveries walk the anticipated line and have now reached 29 million DWT. Meanwhile, 11 million DWT have been sold for recycling, which brings the year-to-date fleet growth up to 2.8%. The inflow is seen primarily in the Panamax segment, where 136 (in 2012: 162) new vessels are keeping Panamax fleet growth high. Simultaneously, the Capesize segment only saw 48 (in 2012: 115) new vessels coming on stream, eventually easing some of the pain from the current overcapacity.
Average age and size of the demolished tonnage is 28 years and 60,000 DWT. In line with the development seen in the last couple of years, the average age is still trending down – whereas the average size is essentially unchanged. BIMCO forecasts a slightly lower level of tonnage being demolished in 2013 as compared to last year; however, it is still going to be the second-largest year on record. The solid level of demolition prices will inspire owners to consider recycling, rather than trading their old tonnage in a very volatile market without certainty of sustainable freight rates and against more energy efficient tonnage.
As regards the orderbook, it’s also moving in the right direction in spite of the recent flurry of new orders for more fuel-efficient tonnage. During the past 10 weeks the number of newbuilding orders in the book has come down from 1,599 to 1,548. Finally, on the ordering side, strong interest in Capesizes remains evident, with 62 new orders in 2013. A total of 18 million DWT has been ordered in the year so far, with March and April seeing total new orders placed in excess of 4.5 million DWT each month.
OUTLOOK
The Summer lull is creeping up on dry bulk shipping demand following the successful South American grain season. Fortunately, solid demand is keeping spirits up in the dry bulk industry, while the severe extent of overcapacity is pushing the date for a full-blown recovery of earnings into a somewhat distant future. For now the market is getting more and more spot focused, as no owners want to commit tonnage for longer terms at offered levels. Don’t look at the paper market for any support, because you won’t find it. FFA indications (10/6) for Capesize tonnage go to the tune of USD per day: Q3-13, Q4-13, Cal 14 and Cal 15: 7,550, 12,000, 11,450 and 13,700 and for Supramax the indications go as follows in USD per day for the same dates: 7,900, 8,400, 8,600 and 8,900. USD per day in the spot market (10/6): Capesize for 5,571 and Supramax for 9,307.
Expect the unexpected from the dry bulk market seems to be the message passed on in recent years – and today is no different, as Handysize tonnage is earning USD 10,900 per day on an Atlantic round voyage whereas Capesizes are struggling to get a 1 year T/C fixed at USD 10,500 per day if at all. With respect to freight rates for Panamax and Supramax tonnage, they have lost ground since the beginning of March.
To sum up, our forecast for the coming 6 weeks: BIMCO holds the view that Capesize TC average rates are expected to remain subdued around USD 4,500-7,500 per day. Panamax is expected to stay in the USD 4,500-8,000 per day interval. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 7,000-10,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are forecast to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-8,500 per day.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping News
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Wednesday, 14 October 20
CHINA COKING COAL FUTURES RALLY ON REPORTED BAN ON AUSTRALIA CARGOES - REUTERS
Dalian coking coal futures rallied for a sixth straight session on Tuesday after reports surfaced that China had stopped buying coal from Australia ...
Wednesday, 14 October 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The tanker market has experienced severe freight rate and asset value declines over the past 5 months. A potential market upturn may arise in the c ...
Friday, 09 October 20
INDIA'S COAL IMPORTS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT, BUT RECOVERY IS UNEVEN - REUTERS
India’s coal imports, depressed by the impact of coronavirus this year, regained ground in September, but in an uneven uptick – shipmen ...
Thursday, 08 October 20
CHINA'S COAL IMPORTS FROM INDONESIA DECLINED 16.4% Y-O-Y, TO 80.2 MLN TONNES IN THE FIRST 9 MONTHS OF 2020 - BANCHERO COSTA
China's coal imports boomed in 2019, surprising many who had expected the government would clamp down strictly on shipments.
...
Thursday, 08 October 20
GLIMMER OF LIGHT FOR COAL, BUT SHORT TERM - FNARENA
Is coal on the rebound? Demand appears stronger and supply reductions have underpinned a tightening market. Certainly, the Newcastle thermal coal p ...
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- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Planning Commission, India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
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