We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Thursday, 13 June 13
BIMCO EXPECTS SUBDUED CAPESIZE EARNINGS FOR THE COMING WEEKS - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 Bulk is not only about China even though it is a key driver. In this section, we have taken a closer look at the European seaborne coal markets, which is going through some interesting times right now. European coal demand has been in a slump ever since early 2009, where seaborne demand fell by 14 million tons from the first to the second quarter. Import volumes during the last three quarters of 2011 indicated that seaborne coal demand was recovering, but the development stalled somewhat in 2012. Looking on a country basis, the nation with the biggest decline was Italy, with annual seaborne imports being roughly 8 million tons lower today than before the financial crisis. France has also decreased its imports by around 4-5 million tons annually. The United Kingdom and Spain have weakened as well, but these countries seem to be on a rebound, with volumes being slightly below pre-financial crisis levels. The Netherlands and Germany have had relatively stable import numbers since 2005.
The bulk of seaborne coal going to Europe comes from North America, Colombia and Russia. The United States and Colombia have doubled their exports to Europe, while Russia has maintained its share of the European demand. Russian coal is shipped from both Russian and Latvian ports; Colombian coal is primarily shipped from the Caribbean, while US coal is primarily shipped from the Atlantic Coast and the Mexican Gulf. The drop in European seaborne demand for coal did not affect these countries, but rather South Africa. From being the single largest coal exporter to Europe with 52.0 million tons in 2005, the country has become a footnote, with 13.6 million tons in 2011. This represents bad business for the shipping industry, since the sailing distance from Richards Bay to Rotterdam is 98% longer than from Hampton Roads and 61% longer than from Puerto Bolivar.
Although European coal imports didn’t tell a particular positive story for shipping, US exports most certainly did. We expect to publish a story on this within the next couple of weeks.
On a more general note regarding the bulk market, China is expected to increase its imports of wheat, as sub-standard storage facilities have damaged a part of the huge Chinese stockpiles. Traders said that China is seeking to increase imports when global prices are in a slump. Current forward prices indicate that this may happen during the third quarter of 2013. According to Chinese customs statistics, the main exporters of wheat to China are Australia, Canada and United States, the latter two providing significant tonne miles.
Meanwhile, Argentina is exporting record high volumes of grains; CRSL reported that Argentina exported 4.86 million tons of grains in March – the highest number ever for a single month. This gave a spike in Panamax rates with the BPI staying just below the psychological barrier of USD 10,000 per day in March and April, but earnings are now slightly lower at around USD 7,000 per day. In our last report, we predicted that Panamax rates would stay in the USD 5,000-10,000 per day territory; going forward seasonal events like Argentinian exports are likely to provide for the upside ticks.
SUPPLY
New dry bulk deliveries walk the anticipated line and have now reached 29 million DWT. Meanwhile, 11 million DWT have been sold for recycling, which brings the year-to-date fleet growth up to 2.8%. The inflow is seen primarily in the Panamax segment, where 136 (in 2012: 162) new vessels are keeping Panamax fleet growth high. Simultaneously, the Capesize segment only saw 48 (in 2012: 115) new vessels coming on stream, eventually easing some of the pain from the current overcapacity.
Average age and size of the demolished tonnage is 28 years and 60,000 DWT. In line with the development seen in the last couple of years, the average age is still trending down – whereas the average size is essentially unchanged. BIMCO forecasts a slightly lower level of tonnage being demolished in 2013 as compared to last year; however, it is still going to be the second-largest year on record. The solid level of demolition prices will inspire owners to consider recycling, rather than trading their old tonnage in a very volatile market without certainty of sustainable freight rates and against more energy efficient tonnage.
As regards the orderbook, it’s also moving in the right direction in spite of the recent flurry of new orders for more fuel-efficient tonnage. During the past 10 weeks the number of newbuilding orders in the book has come down from 1,599 to 1,548. Finally, on the ordering side, strong interest in Capesizes remains evident, with 62 new orders in 2013. A total of 18 million DWT has been ordered in the year so far, with March and April seeing total new orders placed in excess of 4.5 million DWT each month.
OUTLOOK
The Summer lull is creeping up on dry bulk shipping demand following the successful South American grain season. Fortunately, solid demand is keeping spirits up in the dry bulk industry, while the severe extent of overcapacity is pushing the date for a full-blown recovery of earnings into a somewhat distant future. For now the market is getting more and more spot focused, as no owners want to commit tonnage for longer terms at offered levels. Don’t look at the paper market for any support, because you won’t find it. FFA indications (10/6) for Capesize tonnage go to the tune of USD per day: Q3-13, Q4-13, Cal 14 and Cal 15: 7,550, 12,000, 11,450 and 13,700 and for Supramax the indications go as follows in USD per day for the same dates: 7,900, 8,400, 8,600 and 8,900. USD per day in the spot market (10/6): Capesize for 5,571 and Supramax for 9,307.
Expect the unexpected from the dry bulk market seems to be the message passed on in recent years – and today is no different, as Handysize tonnage is earning USD 10,900 per day on an Atlantic round voyage whereas Capesizes are struggling to get a 1 year T/C fixed at USD 10,500 per day if at all. With respect to freight rates for Panamax and Supramax tonnage, they have lost ground since the beginning of March.
To sum up, our forecast for the coming 6 weeks: BIMCO holds the view that Capesize TC average rates are expected to remain subdued around USD 4,500-7,500 per day. Panamax is expected to stay in the USD 4,500-8,000 per day interval. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 7,000-10,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are forecast to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-8,500 per day.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping News
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Monday, 02 November 20
PHILIPPINES GOVERNMENT SAYS NO TO NEW COAL PLANT PROPOSALS - IEEFA | 24 PILIPINAS
The Duterte administration will no longer accept proposals to construct new coal power plants, a dramatic shift in energy policy that counts on dec ...
Sunday, 01 November 20
GRADUAL RECOVERY FOR INDONESIAN COAL FROM 4Q20; RISKS REMAIN - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects the credit metrics of Indonesian coal miners and coal contractors to improve from 4Q20 with the recovery in volumes and price ...
Wednesday, 28 October 20
BIODIESEL - NEW FUELS, NEW CHALLENGES - GARD | DNV GL
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
One of numerous possible ways to comply with the IMO’s strategy on the reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions ...
Wednesday, 28 October 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.35 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 127.94 points Monday, up 0.35 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
Wednesday, 28 October 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The global strive towards eco-friendliness and environmental sustainability in the shipping industry is mounting. There are currently almost 200 co ...
|
|
|
Showing 746 to 750 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Planning Commission, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The University of Queensland
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
|
| |
| |
|
