We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Tuesday, 11 June 13
COAL: NO SIGN OF RECOVERY - GABRIELLA
 COALspot.com: We attended the 19th Annual Coaltrans Asia Conference, where we found most of the speakers were not very optimistic on the outlook for coal mining in the months ahead. The main concern is abundant supply outreaching demand growth.
We maintain an UNDERWEIGHT recommendation on the sector.
However, for investors still seeking some exposure to the coal mining sector, PTBA is a solid defensive play given:
1) its low cost structure and defensive earnings,
2) its abundant reserves supporting strong production growth and
3) its strong balance sheet. Going forward, we foresee further declines in EPS due to continued depressed coal prices which will result in lower Target Prices from current levels. Below are some key takeaways:
Coal Mining Conditions in Indonesia as the biggest exporter
As of May 2013, Indonesia’s coal resources amounted to 159bn tons with coal reserves of 32bn tons – about 3% of the world’s coal reserves. Presently, there are 76 Coal Agreements (PKP2B) and 3,892 coal licenses (IUP). Most of them are for operations in Kalimantan and Sumatra. The majority are in Kalimantan which has 61 PKP2B (80%) and 2,670 IUP (69%). All in all, Kalimantan accounts for around 90% of the total national coal production. Most of the IUP (around 80%) are at the exploration stage with the rest in the production stage. There are problems with around 400 IUP. Most of the coal production is undertaken by coal agreement holders and SOE (which account for around 70% of the national coal production).
Fuelling Indonesia’s domestic coal demand: an additional 55GW of power generation capacity
Indonesia’s electricity demand growth is still high (9.4% per year), with PLN, the state electricity company as the biggest coal buyer in Indonesia (66mn tons in 2013). PLN has stated that electricity supply in Indonesia will continue to rely on coal fired power plants (CFPP) for at least the next 10 years given the relatively cheap production costs involved. By 2020, PLN expects total additional power generation capacity to reach 55GW (PLN: 31GW, IPP: 24GW). Of this amount, 35GW or 65% is expected to come from coal power plants translating into additional coal demand of around 100mn tons p.a.
China’s Coal Import Restrictions: 50mn tons from Indonesia
From 2010 to 2012, China’s thermal coal imports increased each year, more than doubling from 71mn tons to 155mn tons, with Indonesia’s thermal coal amounting to 54% of the total in 2012. This year, China is expected to import 380mn tons of coal in total (+31% or half last year’s growth rate). One of the hot issues being discussed was China’s coal import restrictions stipulating: 1) a minimum CV of 3,750kcal/kg (NAR), 2) maximum sulphur content of 2% and 3) maximum ash content of 25%. Around 30% of China’s steam coal imports - or about 50mn tons coming from Indonesia - were lignite. India would benefit from China implementing an imports ban as it would mean lower prices. In 1Q13, however, China’s coal imports still showed an increase of 30% yoy.
Future of Indonesia’s low rank coal
The government seeks a greater role for domestic coal, especially in LRC (mine mouth power plants, gasification, liquefaction). Indonesia has abundant low rank coal resources, accounting for 40% of Indonesia’s total resources, with medium and high rank coal accounting for about 50% and 10%, respectively. There is a need to foster greater international cooperation to develop the technology for the utilization of low rank coal for domestic needs by implementing Clean Coal Technologies with build operate transfer schemes (BOT schemes) to improve calorific value and efficiency.
A Challenging Outlook
The outlook for coal mining will remain challenging, in our view, given the currently depressed coal prices (down 5% average YTD) and persistent global economic headwinds. China and India combined account for more than 30% of the world’s seaborne import volume. Their dominance is expected to continue with potential growth seen in India. Environmental and Regulatory issues will limit coal imports growth, however, as reflected in China’s draft proposal for a ban on imports and the current development of Hydropower and Nuclear generation.
Adding to the woes, Indonesia’s new draft regulation (increasing coal royalties, export quotas) has worsened the investment climate for coal producers in the country.
The author of this article Ms. Maureen Natasha, an equity analyst in PT Danareksa Sekuritas. Danareksa is a pioneering Indonesian financial institution and was the first to introduce mutual funds in Indonesia. It was also the first to launch a US Dollar-denominated fixed-income fund and promote syariah-based investments. Today, Danareksa is the only local company to offer direct market access services to clients worldwide and has grown to become the company that has underwritten the most equity and debt placements in Indonesia.
Views and opinions / conclusion expressed herein are personal views of the author and not that of COALspot.com. This article is subject to disclaimer terms of PT. Danareksa Sekuritas.
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Friday, 02 August 24
COAL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: FALLING PRICES AMID RECORD-HIGH OUTPUT - WORLD BANK
Coal prices inched up in May (m/m) following an 8 percent decline in 2024Q1. The Australian and South African benchmarks have plummeted more ...
Friday, 26 July 24
FUELEU MARITME IS COMING. IS YOUR CHARTERPARTY READY? - GARD
With less than six months to implementation of FuelEU Maritime in EU and EEA trades, there has been little published advice regarding how to alloca ...
Thursday, 04 July 24
INDIA'S COAL PRODUCTION RISES 14% IN JUNE - PTI
The country’s coal production rose by 14.49% to 84.63 million tonne (MT) in June. The country’s coal output was 73.92 MT in June last f ...
Tuesday, 02 July 24
NTPC CAPTIVE COAL OUTPUT GROWS 15% IN Q1; DESPATCH RISES 17%
State-owned NTPC on Monday reported a 15 per cent year-on-year increase in the production of coal from captives mines to 9.862 metric million tonne ...
Friday, 28 June 24
KOSPO INVITED BIDS FOR 400,000 MT OF MINIMUM 4000 NCV COAL FOR FIVE YEARS
Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO), is inviting bids for total 400,000 MT of Low Calorific Value Coal for 5 years starting from July 2024 until ...
|
|
|
Showing 6 to 10 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- White Energy Company Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
|
| |
| |
|
