We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Tuesday, 11 June 13
COAL: NO SIGN OF RECOVERY - GABRIELLA
 COALspot.com: We attended the 19th Annual Coaltrans Asia Conference, where we found most of the speakers were not very optimistic on the outlook for coal mining in the months ahead. The main concern is abundant supply outreaching demand growth.
We maintain an UNDERWEIGHT recommendation on the sector.
However, for investors still seeking some exposure to the coal mining sector, PTBA is a solid defensive play given:
1) its low cost structure and defensive earnings,
2) its abundant reserves supporting strong production growth and
3) its strong balance sheet. Going forward, we foresee further declines in EPS due to continued depressed coal prices which will result in lower Target Prices from current levels. Below are some key takeaways:
Coal Mining Conditions in Indonesia as the biggest exporter
As of May 2013, Indonesia’s coal resources amounted to 159bn tons with coal reserves of 32bn tons – about 3% of the world’s coal reserves. Presently, there are 76 Coal Agreements (PKP2B) and 3,892 coal licenses (IUP). Most of them are for operations in Kalimantan and Sumatra. The majority are in Kalimantan which has 61 PKP2B (80%) and 2,670 IUP (69%). All in all, Kalimantan accounts for around 90% of the total national coal production. Most of the IUP (around 80%) are at the exploration stage with the rest in the production stage. There are problems with around 400 IUP. Most of the coal production is undertaken by coal agreement holders and SOE (which account for around 70% of the national coal production).
Fuelling Indonesia’s domestic coal demand: an additional 55GW of power generation capacity
Indonesia’s electricity demand growth is still high (9.4% per year), with PLN, the state electricity company as the biggest coal buyer in Indonesia (66mn tons in 2013). PLN has stated that electricity supply in Indonesia will continue to rely on coal fired power plants (CFPP) for at least the next 10 years given the relatively cheap production costs involved. By 2020, PLN expects total additional power generation capacity to reach 55GW (PLN: 31GW, IPP: 24GW). Of this amount, 35GW or 65% is expected to come from coal power plants translating into additional coal demand of around 100mn tons p.a.
China’s Coal Import Restrictions: 50mn tons from Indonesia
From 2010 to 2012, China’s thermal coal imports increased each year, more than doubling from 71mn tons to 155mn tons, with Indonesia’s thermal coal amounting to 54% of the total in 2012. This year, China is expected to import 380mn tons of coal in total (+31% or half last year’s growth rate). One of the hot issues being discussed was China’s coal import restrictions stipulating: 1) a minimum CV of 3,750kcal/kg (NAR), 2) maximum sulphur content of 2% and 3) maximum ash content of 25%. Around 30% of China’s steam coal imports - or about 50mn tons coming from Indonesia - were lignite. India would benefit from China implementing an imports ban as it would mean lower prices. In 1Q13, however, China’s coal imports still showed an increase of 30% yoy.
Future of Indonesia’s low rank coal
The government seeks a greater role for domestic coal, especially in LRC (mine mouth power plants, gasification, liquefaction). Indonesia has abundant low rank coal resources, accounting for 40% of Indonesia’s total resources, with medium and high rank coal accounting for about 50% and 10%, respectively. There is a need to foster greater international cooperation to develop the technology for the utilization of low rank coal for domestic needs by implementing Clean Coal Technologies with build operate transfer schemes (BOT schemes) to improve calorific value and efficiency.
A Challenging Outlook
The outlook for coal mining will remain challenging, in our view, given the currently depressed coal prices (down 5% average YTD) and persistent global economic headwinds. China and India combined account for more than 30% of the world’s seaborne import volume. Their dominance is expected to continue with potential growth seen in India. Environmental and Regulatory issues will limit coal imports growth, however, as reflected in China’s draft proposal for a ban on imports and the current development of Hydropower and Nuclear generation.
Adding to the woes, Indonesia’s new draft regulation (increasing coal royalties, export quotas) has worsened the investment climate for coal producers in the country.
The author of this article Ms. Maureen Natasha, an equity analyst in PT Danareksa Sekuritas. Danareksa is a pioneering Indonesian financial institution and was the first to introduce mutual funds in Indonesia. It was also the first to launch a US Dollar-denominated fixed-income fund and promote syariah-based investments. Today, Danareksa is the only local company to offer direct market access services to clients worldwide and has grown to become the company that has underwritten the most equity and debt placements in Indonesia.
Views and opinions / conclusion expressed herein are personal views of the author and not that of COALspot.com. This article is subject to disclaimer terms of PT. Danareksa Sekuritas.
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Friday, 04 September 20
IN A DEEPENING DEBT HOLE OF $34 BILLION, INDONESIA’S PLN MUST STOP DIGGING - IEEFA
The utility has added IDR100 trillion in debt annually for the last five years
Utilities globally started changing the way they do business ye ...
Friday, 04 September 20
KOMIPO INVITED BIDS FOR AUSTRALIAN MIN 5,700 NCV COAL FOR NOVEMBER
COALspot.com: Korea Midland Power Co. Ltd, has issued an International tender for 260,000 MT Min.5,700 kcal/kg NCV coal November, 2020 loading. Acc ...
Thursday, 03 September 20
BRINGING SERVICES OF FTCCI CLOSER TO THE EXPORTERS AT GMR AIR CARGO COMPLEX AT SHAMSHABAD
Press Release: “FTCCI Trade Facilitation Services at your doorstep now” says J.S. Chandrashekar, IRS., Principal Commissioner of Custom ...
Thursday, 03 September 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE REMAINS FLAT - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price remained flat during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Wednesday, 02 September 20
COAL PRODUCTION FALLS 7% IN APR-AUG; OFF TAKE DIPS 13.4% - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
In the month of August coal off take also increased 9.3% y-o-y to 44.34 MT as compared with 40.57 MT in the same period last year.
C ...
|
|
|
Showing 796 to 800 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
|
| |
| |
|
