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Tuesday, 11 June 13
OUTLOOK FOR CAPESIZES LOOKS GRIM, DESPITE FALLING IRON ORE PRICES - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 Things aren't looking all that rosy for the dry bulk market, despite a stronger volume of iron ore imports during the months of March and April, as freight rates haven't had that necessary push to jumpstart. According to the latest monthly report from shipbroker Intermodal, "this has been reflected in the continuous drop in price for the commodity which was on an almost free-fall course from its latest price peak of $158.9 per dry ton reached on the 20th of February. The significantly slower economic momentum of China has slashed demand for this development-linked commodity, dragging both the price as well as the freight cost to multi-month lows. This is set to continue for most of the year, with destocking still a central strategy in China", the report said.
According to Mr. George Lazaridis, Research Analyst with Intermodal, "the industry view tends to be that for the long-run, even these bottom-of-the-cycle prices are much higher than what most analysts believe should be the prevailing level. This leads to an expectation of surplus production which eventually could lead to problems in ship-ping, as sources such as South Africa increase their stake in China’s iron ore imports, slashing in turn tonne-mile demand for Capes.
The question that is of more vital importance and an ongoing topic of conversation this year amongst shipping circles is; When can we expect an improvement in market fundamentals?
The answer is looking somewhat more worrying for Capes. It will take a lot more than just cheap commodity prices to get things going again. The Chinese slowdown does not seem to be a temporary hiccup and as such people should be taking it more serious", he noted.
With China accounting last year for 47% of global steel production, there is no debate as to who drives the demand for Capes. "Being heavily dependent on Chinese heavy industry production and investment in infrastructure any further slowdown in economic growth has an imminent impact on freight rates for this sector. Without this driving demand it is hard for this segment to see the sharp rise in freight rates and secondhand prices that many had hoped we would reach within this year. Nevertheless it’s not all black. Baosteel sees a 1-2 pct increase in Chinese steel production this year. The year-to-date increase in output of 7% shows a promise for improved markets in the final quarter, while at the same time it would take a substantial slow-down in output in the second-half for there to be a year-on-year drop in Chinese steel output", Lazaridis said.
With all the above in mind a few questions arise, like for instance, where is the basis for all this business being reported in the Capesize market? Is there a sense that previous bullish sentiment for this size group is leading new investment without there being a real demand for further fleet growth? Could this lead to further dragging out of sub-performing markets?
According to Lazaridis' viewpoint, "over the past couple of months we have seen the majority of trading sessions being reported at average freight figures bellow what is expected for most owners to cover OPEX. Even on some of the more positive trading days, TCE increases are temporary and usually attributed to momentary decreases in bunker costs as well as slow steaming throughout the fleet which helps increase what little extra earnings owners can squeeze out of the current market rates. The counter argument to this can be found in part in the wisdom of old. Through most shipping cycles owners have usually taken a long-term position hoping to make high gains through the cycle rather than only looking to act during periods where the market is on the rise. If they waited for the later we would not have any ship owners left. This may explain activity in the secondhand market however things are very different when it comes to newbuildings. Capesize newbuilding designs have not had the same overhaul in performance that we have seen in other size segments. So why are owner’s risking of drowning the market with further ordering when there are plenty of well-priced secondhand units available. It seems to be yet again the case of easier financing, respectively lower prices, easi-er payment terms and forward delivery that have the upside of even gaining in value before you have made full payment. As promising as all these sound to a potential buyer, a word of caution to the brave, “as you sow, so shall you reap”, he concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Tuesday, 25 August 20
INDIA'S IMPORTS FALL AS LOCKDOWNS IMPACT THE POWER AND INDUSTRIAL SECTORS - REPORT
India is the world’s second largest thermal coal consumer and importer, importing an estimated 211 million tonnes of thermal coal in 2019.&nb ...
Monday, 24 August 20
A COMBINATION OF DEVELOPMENTS DROVE THE FALLOFF COAL PRICES - CHIEF ECONOMIST’ OFFICE, AUSTRALIA
China, rising domestic production combined with subdued power demand;
India, a lockdown coupled with government directives that fav ...
Monday, 24 August 20
AUSTRALIA'S THERMAL COAL EXPORTS ARE FORECAST TO DROP FROM AN ESTIMATED $20 BILLION IN 2019-20 TO $16 BILLION IN 2020-21: REPORT
Thermal coal spot prices have fallen sharply as the impact of COVID-19 drives a contraction in seaborne trade for only the second time this century ...
Saturday, 22 August 20
REPORT SEES INDIA’S RELIANCE ON THERMAL POWER DROPPING TO 50% IN 2021, 43% IN 2026 - ET ENERGY | IEEFA
India’s dependence on thermal power will reduce to 50 per cent by 2021-22 and 43 per cent by 2026-27 on the back of renewable energy (RE) cap ...
Friday, 21 August 20
323 MILLION ELECTRIC VEHICLES WILL BE ON THE ROADS BY 2040 - WOOD MACKENZIE
Electric vehicle (EV) sales are expected to reach 45 million units per year by 2040, with a total global EV stock of 323 million, according to new ...
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- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Planning Commission, India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
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