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Tuesday, 11 June 13
OUTLOOK FOR CAPESIZES LOOKS GRIM, DESPITE FALLING IRON ORE PRICES - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 Things aren't looking all that rosy for the dry bulk market, despite a stronger volume of iron ore imports during the months of March and April, as freight rates haven't had that necessary push to jumpstart. According to the latest monthly report from shipbroker Intermodal, "this has been reflected in the continuous drop in price for the commodity which was on an almost free-fall course from its latest price peak of $158.9 per dry ton reached on the 20th of February. The significantly slower economic momentum of China has slashed demand for this development-linked commodity, dragging both the price as well as the freight cost to multi-month lows. This is set to continue for most of the year, with destocking still a central strategy in China", the report said.
According to Mr. George Lazaridis, Research Analyst with Intermodal, "the industry view tends to be that for the long-run, even these bottom-of-the-cycle prices are much higher than what most analysts believe should be the prevailing level. This leads to an expectation of surplus production which eventually could lead to problems in ship-ping, as sources such as South Africa increase their stake in China’s iron ore imports, slashing in turn tonne-mile demand for Capes.
The question that is of more vital importance and an ongoing topic of conversation this year amongst shipping circles is; When can we expect an improvement in market fundamentals?
The answer is looking somewhat more worrying for Capes. It will take a lot more than just cheap commodity prices to get things going again. The Chinese slowdown does not seem to be a temporary hiccup and as such people should be taking it more serious", he noted.
With China accounting last year for 47% of global steel production, there is no debate as to who drives the demand for Capes. "Being heavily dependent on Chinese heavy industry production and investment in infrastructure any further slowdown in economic growth has an imminent impact on freight rates for this sector. Without this driving demand it is hard for this segment to see the sharp rise in freight rates and secondhand prices that many had hoped we would reach within this year. Nevertheless it’s not all black. Baosteel sees a 1-2 pct increase in Chinese steel production this year. The year-to-date increase in output of 7% shows a promise for improved markets in the final quarter, while at the same time it would take a substantial slow-down in output in the second-half for there to be a year-on-year drop in Chinese steel output", Lazaridis said.
With all the above in mind a few questions arise, like for instance, where is the basis for all this business being reported in the Capesize market? Is there a sense that previous bullish sentiment for this size group is leading new investment without there being a real demand for further fleet growth? Could this lead to further dragging out of sub-performing markets?
According to Lazaridis' viewpoint, "over the past couple of months we have seen the majority of trading sessions being reported at average freight figures bellow what is expected for most owners to cover OPEX. Even on some of the more positive trading days, TCE increases are temporary and usually attributed to momentary decreases in bunker costs as well as slow steaming throughout the fleet which helps increase what little extra earnings owners can squeeze out of the current market rates. The counter argument to this can be found in part in the wisdom of old. Through most shipping cycles owners have usually taken a long-term position hoping to make high gains through the cycle rather than only looking to act during periods where the market is on the rise. If they waited for the later we would not have any ship owners left. This may explain activity in the secondhand market however things are very different when it comes to newbuildings. Capesize newbuilding designs have not had the same overhaul in performance that we have seen in other size segments. So why are owner’s risking of drowning the market with further ordering when there are plenty of well-priced secondhand units available. It seems to be yet again the case of easier financing, respectively lower prices, easi-er payment terms and forward delivery that have the upside of even gaining in value before you have made full payment. As promising as all these sound to a potential buyer, a word of caution to the brave, “as you sow, so shall you reap”, he concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Tuesday, 27 October 20
PLN STILL REFUSING TO ADAPT, A MOVE WHICH WILL HURT INVESTORS, CONSUMERS, AND THE GOVERNMENT PURSE - IEEFA
Utility’s latest planning report locks PLN into the past
PLN would be better served restructuring its business to address the current en ...
Monday, 26 October 20
'LONG ASCENT' TO RECOVERY OF GLOBAL GROWTH - BALTIC EXCHANGE
The global economy has so far avoided a “financial catastrophe” but growth projections from the International Monetary Fund’s lat ...
Friday, 23 October 20
SHIPPING LOANS AND COLLATERAL DAMAGE - VICTOR ONYEGBADO, AKABOGU & ASSOCIATES
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Shipping finance transactions are characterised by peculiar risk factors principally on account of the shipping asset&rsq ...
Friday, 23 October 20
WHAT WILL THE 2020 ELECTIONS MEAN FOR US ENERGY? - WOOD MACKENZIE
The 2020 elections present American voters with a choice between two radically different visions for the future of energy. President Donald Trump r ...
Wednesday, 21 October 20
BRAZIL EXPORTED 238.7 MLN TONNES OF IRON ORE IN THE FIRST 9 MONTHS OF 2020 - BANCHERO COSTA
Brazil’s iron ore exports have been gradually but steadily recovering following a disastrous winter period of 2019/2020. In the first 9 month ...
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- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- The University of Queensland
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
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- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- White Energy Company Limited
- Australian Coal Association
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
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- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Planning Commission, India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
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