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Tuesday, 04 June 13
WOOD MACKENZIE SAYS THE CHINA'S THERMAL COAL DEMAND WILL REACH NEARLY 7BTPA BY 2030
 COALspot.com - The Illusion of Peak Coal' says that despite efforts to limit coal consumption and seek alternative fuel options, China's strong appetite for thermal coal will lead to a doubling of demand by 2030. China’s demand will grow to approximately seven billion tonnes per annum (btpa) of thermal coal which is contrary to speculation that China's thermal coal demand may be reaching a peak in the next decade.
"It is very unlikely that demand for thermal coal in China will peak before 2030," states Mr. William Durbin, Wood Mackenzie’s Beijing-based President of Global Markets. "Why? Because China’s aggressive investment program for nuclear, natural gas and renewables capacity is centred in the coastal region while coal-fired capacity grows in the central and western provinces. Indeed, there are also a plethora of coal-intensive conversion projects being built or planned that are significantly adding to demand.”
"Wood Mackenzie’s analysis already takes into account a rapid improvement in energy efficiency the likes of which have not been seen. We expect power demand per unit of GDP to fall by half in just 17 years, an extraordinary achievement for an economy experiencing such sustained growth. In spite of this efficiency improvement, power demand is still set to nearly triple to 15,000 Terawatt hours (TWh) by 2030. Indeed, if expected efficiency improvements do not materialise, then in the absence of alternatives, coal demand could increase further."
Coal is an important natural resource for a number of provinces seeking investment, jobs and tax revenues. Already there are government-approved coal conversion projects (coal-to-gas, coal-to-liquids, coal-to-petrochemicals) that account for over 0.25 btpa of thermal demand. Additionally, there are planned projects that will increase demand by another 0.6 btpa. Mr. Durbin notes that “Total Chinese industrial demand for thermal coal is expected to grow from 1.5 to nearly 2.1 btpa by 2030. In comparison, the US, the world’s second largest domestic market for coal, consumes only 1.0 btpa in total. If a cap on coal consumption in China is imposed, it will come at a cost to provincial economies.”
In order for China to reduce power-driven demand for coal, a significant increase in the availability of natural gas for the power and industrial sectors is required. But Wood Mackenzie believes natural gas supplies will struggle to meet demand growth due to modest investment in conventional reserves and the very slow development of domestic unconventional shale gas reserves. Additionally, the high cost of LNG and pipeline imports is uncompetitive with low cost coal.
China’s gas price and power tariff regulations will need to be reformed in order to create incentives for the national oil companies (NOCs) to make expensive investments in unconventional gas. Mr. Durbin highlights, “Our analysis already assumes an intensive investment program in unconventionals post-2020. To ramp up shale gas developments and production faster to displace coal will require a near-doubling of investment. We expect coal to hold its cost advantage until shale gas breakeven costs fall by 40-50%."
Aside from coal substitution by natural gas, China hopes to reduce coal usage in the coastal demand centres by building Ultra High Voltage (UHV) electricity transmission lines from the Northwest and Southwest. Wood Mackenzie's report says this will have a limited impact on coal demand. The transmission lines from the northwest will transmit coal-fired generation; hence, it just moves coal demand from the coast to the interior. The UHV lines from the southwest will transmit seasonal hydro, requiring base load coal when hydro output falls. The net effect of the UHV lines and the non-coal-fired capacity is a flattening in thermal coal demand in the coastal power region.
Mr. Durbin concludes, "Government mandates to improve the environment by reducing coal use will require steep investments in alternatives, the use of emission control technology or reduce economic growth rate targets further—options which are not currently happening. But what is noteworthy, however, is that there is greater potential for further demand growth beyond our expectations. Failure to meet an aggressive non-coal power capacity build, investment in more efficient technologies and the expansion of the UHV network will increase the dependence on and use of coal. In the end, China's thermal coal demand will see persistent growth until 2030, rendering peak coal an illusion.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
About Wood Mackenzie
Wood Mackenzie is the most comprehensive source of knowledge about the world’s energy and metals industries. We analyse and advise on every stage along the value chain - from discovery to delivery, and beyond - to provide clients with the commercial insight that makes them stronger. For more information visit: www.woodmac.com
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Tuesday, 18 August 20
BLACKBALLED: WILL COAL BOUNCE BACK FROM SLUMP OR IS IT TERMINAL? - SYDNEY MORNING HERALD
Even by the standards of this miserable year, 2020 has been a shocker for the global coal industry.
As the lockdown kicked in demand ...
Friday, 14 August 20
EIA: COAL PLANTS UNECONOMICAL IN MOST REGIONS - IEEFA
U.S. coal power generation plunged by 30 percent in the first half of 2020 off an already-depressed base, shoved out by natural gas and renewables ...
Thursday, 13 August 20
INDIA SHOULD RECORD A SLIGHT DECREASE IN THERMAL COAL IMPORTS, REACHING A VOLUME OF 167 MILLION TONS BY THE END OF 2020 - ASSOCARBONI
Regarding 2020 thermal coal imports forecasts, Vietnam’s coal imports showed a very strong growth in the first half of 2020 and it is believe ...
Thursday, 13 August 20
INDONESIA REMAINS THE LARGEST EXPORTER OF COAL IN THE WORLD - ASSOCARBONI
According to the last Assocarboni data for 2019, Indonesia remains the largest exporter in the world. Thermal coal exports have in fact reached 456 ...
Wednesday, 12 August 20
VIETNAM WAS THE PROTAGONIST OF A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN COAL IMPORTS IN 2019 - ASSOCARBONI
The latest Assocarboni data for 2019 also provide a detailed picture on the trend of the global coal import.
According to Assocarbon ...
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- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
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- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
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- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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- Planning Commission, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
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- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
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- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
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- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
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