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Tuesday, 04 June 13
WOOD MACKENZIE SAYS THE CHINA'S THERMAL COAL DEMAND WILL REACH NEARLY 7BTPA BY 2030
 COALspot.com - The Illusion of Peak Coal' says that despite efforts to limit coal consumption and seek alternative fuel options, China's strong appetite for thermal coal will lead to a doubling of demand by 2030. China’s demand will grow to approximately seven billion tonnes per annum (btpa) of thermal coal which is contrary to speculation that China's thermal coal demand may be reaching a peak in the next decade.
"It is very unlikely that demand for thermal coal in China will peak before 2030," states Mr. William Durbin, Wood Mackenzie’s Beijing-based President of Global Markets. "Why? Because China’s aggressive investment program for nuclear, natural gas and renewables capacity is centred in the coastal region while coal-fired capacity grows in the central and western provinces. Indeed, there are also a plethora of coal-intensive conversion projects being built or planned that are significantly adding to demand.”
"Wood Mackenzie’s analysis already takes into account a rapid improvement in energy efficiency the likes of which have not been seen. We expect power demand per unit of GDP to fall by half in just 17 years, an extraordinary achievement for an economy experiencing such sustained growth. In spite of this efficiency improvement, power demand is still set to nearly triple to 15,000 Terawatt hours (TWh) by 2030. Indeed, if expected efficiency improvements do not materialise, then in the absence of alternatives, coal demand could increase further."
Coal is an important natural resource for a number of provinces seeking investment, jobs and tax revenues. Already there are government-approved coal conversion projects (coal-to-gas, coal-to-liquids, coal-to-petrochemicals) that account for over 0.25 btpa of thermal demand. Additionally, there are planned projects that will increase demand by another 0.6 btpa. Mr. Durbin notes that “Total Chinese industrial demand for thermal coal is expected to grow from 1.5 to nearly 2.1 btpa by 2030. In comparison, the US, the world’s second largest domestic market for coal, consumes only 1.0 btpa in total. If a cap on coal consumption in China is imposed, it will come at a cost to provincial economies.”
In order for China to reduce power-driven demand for coal, a significant increase in the availability of natural gas for the power and industrial sectors is required. But Wood Mackenzie believes natural gas supplies will struggle to meet demand growth due to modest investment in conventional reserves and the very slow development of domestic unconventional shale gas reserves. Additionally, the high cost of LNG and pipeline imports is uncompetitive with low cost coal.
China’s gas price and power tariff regulations will need to be reformed in order to create incentives for the national oil companies (NOCs) to make expensive investments in unconventional gas. Mr. Durbin highlights, “Our analysis already assumes an intensive investment program in unconventionals post-2020. To ramp up shale gas developments and production faster to displace coal will require a near-doubling of investment. We expect coal to hold its cost advantage until shale gas breakeven costs fall by 40-50%."
Aside from coal substitution by natural gas, China hopes to reduce coal usage in the coastal demand centres by building Ultra High Voltage (UHV) electricity transmission lines from the Northwest and Southwest. Wood Mackenzie's report says this will have a limited impact on coal demand. The transmission lines from the northwest will transmit coal-fired generation; hence, it just moves coal demand from the coast to the interior. The UHV lines from the southwest will transmit seasonal hydro, requiring base load coal when hydro output falls. The net effect of the UHV lines and the non-coal-fired capacity is a flattening in thermal coal demand in the coastal power region.
Mr. Durbin concludes, "Government mandates to improve the environment by reducing coal use will require steep investments in alternatives, the use of emission control technology or reduce economic growth rate targets further—options which are not currently happening. But what is noteworthy, however, is that there is greater potential for further demand growth beyond our expectations. Failure to meet an aggressive non-coal power capacity build, investment in more efficient technologies and the expansion of the UHV network will increase the dependence on and use of coal. In the end, China's thermal coal demand will see persistent growth until 2030, rendering peak coal an illusion.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
About Wood Mackenzie
Wood Mackenzie is the most comprehensive source of knowledge about the world’s energy and metals industries. We analyse and advise on every stage along the value chain - from discovery to delivery, and beyond - to provide clients with the commercial insight that makes them stronger. For more information visit: www.woodmac.com
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Wednesday, 19 August 20
COAL INDIA TRADE UNIONS DEFER DAY-LONG STRIKE: PTI
The unions had decided to go on strike against the commercial mining and the proposed divestment or buyback of shares of Coal India Ltd (CIL).
...
Wednesday, 19 August 20
MISC MARKS ITS MAIDEN FORAY INTO MAJOR DEEP-WATER PROJECT IN LATIN AMERICA WITH MERO 3 FPSO
MISC Berhad (MISC) is pleased to announce its acceptance of Letter of Intent (LOI) from Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. (Petrobras) for the provisi ...
Wednesday, 19 August 20
MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE LAIOS | INTERMODAL
Since the Covid-19 outbreak, governments and central banks around the globe have been using their ammunition and stimulus packages to keep their ec ...
Wednesday, 19 August 20
INDIA SAW A SHARP DECLINE IN ENERGY COAL IMPORTS IN JANUARY - JUNE 2020; –27 PER CENT YOY - BHP
Energy coal prices were weak in the second half of financial year 2020, BHP says in its Economic and Commodity Outlook FY20.
Accordi ...
Wednesday, 19 August 20
COAL PRICES TO REMAIN SUBDUED THIS FISCAL AMID WEAK DEMAND, HIGH INVENTORY - THE HINDU BUSINESS LINE
Coal offtake is improving gradually as lockdown eases
Coal prices are expected to remain subdued to weak demand and high inventory l ...
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- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Planning Commission, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Parliament of New Zealand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
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