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Tuesday, 04 June 13
WOOD MACKENZIE SAYS THE CHINA'S THERMAL COAL DEMAND WILL REACH NEARLY 7BTPA BY 2030
 COALspot.com - The Illusion of Peak Coal' says that despite efforts to limit coal consumption and seek alternative fuel options, China's strong appetite for thermal coal will lead to a doubling of demand by 2030. China’s demand will grow to approximately seven billion tonnes per annum (btpa) of thermal coal which is contrary to speculation that China's thermal coal demand may be reaching a peak in the next decade.
"It is very unlikely that demand for thermal coal in China will peak before 2030," states Mr. William Durbin, Wood Mackenzie’s Beijing-based President of Global Markets. "Why? Because China’s aggressive investment program for nuclear, natural gas and renewables capacity is centred in the coastal region while coal-fired capacity grows in the central and western provinces. Indeed, there are also a plethora of coal-intensive conversion projects being built or planned that are significantly adding to demand.”
"Wood Mackenzie’s analysis already takes into account a rapid improvement in energy efficiency the likes of which have not been seen. We expect power demand per unit of GDP to fall by half in just 17 years, an extraordinary achievement for an economy experiencing such sustained growth. In spite of this efficiency improvement, power demand is still set to nearly triple to 15,000 Terawatt hours (TWh) by 2030. Indeed, if expected efficiency improvements do not materialise, then in the absence of alternatives, coal demand could increase further."
Coal is an important natural resource for a number of provinces seeking investment, jobs and tax revenues. Already there are government-approved coal conversion projects (coal-to-gas, coal-to-liquids, coal-to-petrochemicals) that account for over 0.25 btpa of thermal demand. Additionally, there are planned projects that will increase demand by another 0.6 btpa. Mr. Durbin notes that “Total Chinese industrial demand for thermal coal is expected to grow from 1.5 to nearly 2.1 btpa by 2030. In comparison, the US, the world’s second largest domestic market for coal, consumes only 1.0 btpa in total. If a cap on coal consumption in China is imposed, it will come at a cost to provincial economies.”
In order for China to reduce power-driven demand for coal, a significant increase in the availability of natural gas for the power and industrial sectors is required. But Wood Mackenzie believes natural gas supplies will struggle to meet demand growth due to modest investment in conventional reserves and the very slow development of domestic unconventional shale gas reserves. Additionally, the high cost of LNG and pipeline imports is uncompetitive with low cost coal.
China’s gas price and power tariff regulations will need to be reformed in order to create incentives for the national oil companies (NOCs) to make expensive investments in unconventional gas. Mr. Durbin highlights, “Our analysis already assumes an intensive investment program in unconventionals post-2020. To ramp up shale gas developments and production faster to displace coal will require a near-doubling of investment. We expect coal to hold its cost advantage until shale gas breakeven costs fall by 40-50%."
Aside from coal substitution by natural gas, China hopes to reduce coal usage in the coastal demand centres by building Ultra High Voltage (UHV) electricity transmission lines from the Northwest and Southwest. Wood Mackenzie's report says this will have a limited impact on coal demand. The transmission lines from the northwest will transmit coal-fired generation; hence, it just moves coal demand from the coast to the interior. The UHV lines from the southwest will transmit seasonal hydro, requiring base load coal when hydro output falls. The net effect of the UHV lines and the non-coal-fired capacity is a flattening in thermal coal demand in the coastal power region.
Mr. Durbin concludes, "Government mandates to improve the environment by reducing coal use will require steep investments in alternatives, the use of emission control technology or reduce economic growth rate targets further—options which are not currently happening. But what is noteworthy, however, is that there is greater potential for further demand growth beyond our expectations. Failure to meet an aggressive non-coal power capacity build, investment in more efficient technologies and the expansion of the UHV network will increase the dependence on and use of coal. In the end, China's thermal coal demand will see persistent growth until 2030, rendering peak coal an illusion.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
About Wood Mackenzie
Wood Mackenzie is the most comprehensive source of knowledge about the world’s energy and metals industries. We analyse and advise on every stage along the value chain - from discovery to delivery, and beyond - to provide clients with the commercial insight that makes them stronger. For more information visit: www.woodmac.com
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Friday, 21 August 20
BHP COMMITS TO SELLING ITS THERMAL COALMINES WITHIN TWO YEARS - THE GUARDIAN
Move follows pressure from investors but company stops short of full exit from coalmining
BHP has announced it plans to sell off its ...
Thursday, 20 August 20
MINER BHP CONFIRMS PLANS TO EXIT THERMAL COAL SECTOR - THE SYDNEY MORNING HERALD
The head of mining giant BHP has laid out plans for a reshaping of its global operations by seeking to quit thermal coal mining, offload some cokin ...
Thursday, 20 August 20
LONDON RETAINS ARBITER CROWN - BALTIC EXCHANGE | HFW
Fears that the UK’s decision to leave the European Union would dent the reputation of the nation’s capital as the leader in maritime ar ...
Wednesday, 19 August 20
U.S. COAL STOCKPILES STEADILY INCREASE AFTER REACHING LOWEST LEVEL IN A DECADE IN 2019 - EIA
After reaching their lowest level in more than a decade in March 2019, U.S. coal stockpiles steadily increased to 152 million tons in April 2020, r ...
Wednesday, 19 August 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 0.26 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 124.92 points Monday, down 0.26 percent week on week.
The index, released by Chi ...
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- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
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- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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- McConnell Dowell - Australia
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- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
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- Planning Commission, India
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- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
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- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Australian Coal Association
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
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