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Tuesday, 04 June 13
WOOD MACKENZIE SAYS THE CHINA'S THERMAL COAL DEMAND WILL REACH NEARLY 7BTPA BY 2030
 COALspot.com - The Illusion of Peak Coal' says that despite efforts to limit coal consumption and seek alternative fuel options, China's strong appetite for thermal coal will lead to a doubling of demand by 2030. China’s demand will grow to approximately seven billion tonnes per annum (btpa) of thermal coal which is contrary to speculation that China's thermal coal demand may be reaching a peak in the next decade.
"It is very unlikely that demand for thermal coal in China will peak before 2030," states Mr. William Durbin, Wood Mackenzie’s Beijing-based President of Global Markets. "Why? Because China’s aggressive investment program for nuclear, natural gas and renewables capacity is centred in the coastal region while coal-fired capacity grows in the central and western provinces. Indeed, there are also a plethora of coal-intensive conversion projects being built or planned that are significantly adding to demand.”
"Wood Mackenzie’s analysis already takes into account a rapid improvement in energy efficiency the likes of which have not been seen. We expect power demand per unit of GDP to fall by half in just 17 years, an extraordinary achievement for an economy experiencing such sustained growth. In spite of this efficiency improvement, power demand is still set to nearly triple to 15,000 Terawatt hours (TWh) by 2030. Indeed, if expected efficiency improvements do not materialise, then in the absence of alternatives, coal demand could increase further."
Coal is an important natural resource for a number of provinces seeking investment, jobs and tax revenues. Already there are government-approved coal conversion projects (coal-to-gas, coal-to-liquids, coal-to-petrochemicals) that account for over 0.25 btpa of thermal demand. Additionally, there are planned projects that will increase demand by another 0.6 btpa. Mr. Durbin notes that “Total Chinese industrial demand for thermal coal is expected to grow from 1.5 to nearly 2.1 btpa by 2030. In comparison, the US, the world’s second largest domestic market for coal, consumes only 1.0 btpa in total. If a cap on coal consumption in China is imposed, it will come at a cost to provincial economies.”
In order for China to reduce power-driven demand for coal, a significant increase in the availability of natural gas for the power and industrial sectors is required. But Wood Mackenzie believes natural gas supplies will struggle to meet demand growth due to modest investment in conventional reserves and the very slow development of domestic unconventional shale gas reserves. Additionally, the high cost of LNG and pipeline imports is uncompetitive with low cost coal.
China’s gas price and power tariff regulations will need to be reformed in order to create incentives for the national oil companies (NOCs) to make expensive investments in unconventional gas. Mr. Durbin highlights, “Our analysis already assumes an intensive investment program in unconventionals post-2020. To ramp up shale gas developments and production faster to displace coal will require a near-doubling of investment. We expect coal to hold its cost advantage until shale gas breakeven costs fall by 40-50%."
Aside from coal substitution by natural gas, China hopes to reduce coal usage in the coastal demand centres by building Ultra High Voltage (UHV) electricity transmission lines from the Northwest and Southwest. Wood Mackenzie's report says this will have a limited impact on coal demand. The transmission lines from the northwest will transmit coal-fired generation; hence, it just moves coal demand from the coast to the interior. The UHV lines from the southwest will transmit seasonal hydro, requiring base load coal when hydro output falls. The net effect of the UHV lines and the non-coal-fired capacity is a flattening in thermal coal demand in the coastal power region.
Mr. Durbin concludes, "Government mandates to improve the environment by reducing coal use will require steep investments in alternatives, the use of emission control technology or reduce economic growth rate targets further—options which are not currently happening. But what is noteworthy, however, is that there is greater potential for further demand growth beyond our expectations. Failure to meet an aggressive non-coal power capacity build, investment in more efficient technologies and the expansion of the UHV network will increase the dependence on and use of coal. In the end, China's thermal coal demand will see persistent growth until 2030, rendering peak coal an illusion.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
About Wood Mackenzie
Wood Mackenzie is the most comprehensive source of knowledge about the world’s energy and metals industries. We analyse and advise on every stage along the value chain - from discovery to delivery, and beyond - to provide clients with the commercial insight that makes them stronger. For more information visit: www.woodmac.com
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Thursday, 27 August 20
BANGLADESH POWER MINISTRY SEEKING AUTHORITY TO CANCEL 13,000 MW OF PROPOSED COAL-FIRED CAPACITY - BUSINESS STANDARD
In a bid to move away from dirty energy, the Ministry of Power, Energy and Mineral Resources is seeking the prime minister’s approval to conv ...
Wednesday, 26 August 20
ASIAN COAL PRICES LIKELY TO REMAIN DEPRESSED SAY TRADERS, ANALYSTS - REUTERS
Asian coal prices, which have fallen around 25% this year as power demand slumped due to the coronavirus outbreak, are unlikely to move higher befo ...
Wednesday, 26 August 20
WORLD COAL EXPORTS: INDONESIAN THERMAL COAL EXPORTS HAVE COME UNDER PRESSURE AS THERMAL COAL PRICES WEAKEN - REPORT
Indonesia’s exports to decline sharply from record highs
Indonesia is the world’s largest thermal coal exporter, sellin ...
Wednesday, 26 August 20
JAPAN'S COAL IMPORTS ARE BEING AFFECTED BY COMPETING INFLUENCES - REPORT
Japan is the world’s third largest thermal coal importer, importing an estimated 135 million tonnes of thermal coal in 2019. The country&rsqu ...
Wednesday, 26 August 20
PENDING SOUTH KOREA LEGISLATION COULD FORCE HALT TO COUNTRY’S COAL PLANT EXPORT DEALS - KOREA ECONOMIC DAILY
South Korea’s parliament looks set to pass new legislation to ban financing on foreign coal power projects, putting all overseas coal-fired p ...
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- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Australian Coal Association
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
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