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Tuesday, 04 June 13
WOOD MACKENZIE SAYS THE CHINA'S THERMAL COAL DEMAND WILL REACH NEARLY 7BTPA BY 2030
 COALspot.com - The Illusion of Peak Coal' says that despite efforts to limit coal consumption and seek alternative fuel options, China's strong appetite for thermal coal will lead to a doubling of demand by 2030. China’s demand will grow to approximately seven billion tonnes per annum (btpa) of thermal coal which is contrary to speculation that China's thermal coal demand may be reaching a peak in the next decade.
"It is very unlikely that demand for thermal coal in China will peak before 2030," states Mr. William Durbin, Wood Mackenzie’s Beijing-based President of Global Markets. "Why? Because China’s aggressive investment program for nuclear, natural gas and renewables capacity is centred in the coastal region while coal-fired capacity grows in the central and western provinces. Indeed, there are also a plethora of coal-intensive conversion projects being built or planned that are significantly adding to demand.”
"Wood Mackenzie’s analysis already takes into account a rapid improvement in energy efficiency the likes of which have not been seen. We expect power demand per unit of GDP to fall by half in just 17 years, an extraordinary achievement for an economy experiencing such sustained growth. In spite of this efficiency improvement, power demand is still set to nearly triple to 15,000 Terawatt hours (TWh) by 2030. Indeed, if expected efficiency improvements do not materialise, then in the absence of alternatives, coal demand could increase further."
Coal is an important natural resource for a number of provinces seeking investment, jobs and tax revenues. Already there are government-approved coal conversion projects (coal-to-gas, coal-to-liquids, coal-to-petrochemicals) that account for over 0.25 btpa of thermal demand. Additionally, there are planned projects that will increase demand by another 0.6 btpa. Mr. Durbin notes that “Total Chinese industrial demand for thermal coal is expected to grow from 1.5 to nearly 2.1 btpa by 2030. In comparison, the US, the world’s second largest domestic market for coal, consumes only 1.0 btpa in total. If a cap on coal consumption in China is imposed, it will come at a cost to provincial economies.”
In order for China to reduce power-driven demand for coal, a significant increase in the availability of natural gas for the power and industrial sectors is required. But Wood Mackenzie believes natural gas supplies will struggle to meet demand growth due to modest investment in conventional reserves and the very slow development of domestic unconventional shale gas reserves. Additionally, the high cost of LNG and pipeline imports is uncompetitive with low cost coal.
China’s gas price and power tariff regulations will need to be reformed in order to create incentives for the national oil companies (NOCs) to make expensive investments in unconventional gas. Mr. Durbin highlights, “Our analysis already assumes an intensive investment program in unconventionals post-2020. To ramp up shale gas developments and production faster to displace coal will require a near-doubling of investment. We expect coal to hold its cost advantage until shale gas breakeven costs fall by 40-50%."
Aside from coal substitution by natural gas, China hopes to reduce coal usage in the coastal demand centres by building Ultra High Voltage (UHV) electricity transmission lines from the Northwest and Southwest. Wood Mackenzie's report says this will have a limited impact on coal demand. The transmission lines from the northwest will transmit coal-fired generation; hence, it just moves coal demand from the coast to the interior. The UHV lines from the southwest will transmit seasonal hydro, requiring base load coal when hydro output falls. The net effect of the UHV lines and the non-coal-fired capacity is a flattening in thermal coal demand in the coastal power region.
Mr. Durbin concludes, "Government mandates to improve the environment by reducing coal use will require steep investments in alternatives, the use of emission control technology or reduce economic growth rate targets further—options which are not currently happening. But what is noteworthy, however, is that there is greater potential for further demand growth beyond our expectations. Failure to meet an aggressive non-coal power capacity build, investment in more efficient technologies and the expansion of the UHV network will increase the dependence on and use of coal. In the end, China's thermal coal demand will see persistent growth until 2030, rendering peak coal an illusion.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
About Wood Mackenzie
Wood Mackenzie is the most comprehensive source of knowledge about the world’s energy and metals industries. We analyse and advise on every stage along the value chain - from discovery to delivery, and beyond - to provide clients with the commercial insight that makes them stronger. For more information visit: www.woodmac.com
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- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
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- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
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- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
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- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
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- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
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- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
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- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
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- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
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- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
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- SMC Global Power, Philippines
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- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- White Energy Company Limited
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- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
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- The Treasury - Australian Government
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- Indian Energy Exchange, India
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- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
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- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
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- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
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- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
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- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
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- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
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- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
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- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
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- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
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- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
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- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
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- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
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- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
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- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
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- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
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- Planning Commission, India
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