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Tuesday, 04 June 13
WOOD MACKENZIE SAYS THE CHINA'S THERMAL COAL DEMAND WILL REACH NEARLY 7BTPA BY 2030
 COALspot.com - The Illusion of Peak Coal' says that despite efforts to limit coal consumption and seek alternative fuel options, China's strong appetite for thermal coal will lead to a doubling of demand by 2030. China’s demand will grow to approximately seven billion tonnes per annum (btpa) of thermal coal which is contrary to speculation that China's thermal coal demand may be reaching a peak in the next decade.
"It is very unlikely that demand for thermal coal in China will peak before 2030," states Mr. William Durbin, Wood Mackenzie’s Beijing-based President of Global Markets. "Why? Because China’s aggressive investment program for nuclear, natural gas and renewables capacity is centred in the coastal region while coal-fired capacity grows in the central and western provinces. Indeed, there are also a plethora of coal-intensive conversion projects being built or planned that are significantly adding to demand.”
"Wood Mackenzie’s analysis already takes into account a rapid improvement in energy efficiency the likes of which have not been seen. We expect power demand per unit of GDP to fall by half in just 17 years, an extraordinary achievement for an economy experiencing such sustained growth. In spite of this efficiency improvement, power demand is still set to nearly triple to 15,000 Terawatt hours (TWh) by 2030. Indeed, if expected efficiency improvements do not materialise, then in the absence of alternatives, coal demand could increase further."
Coal is an important natural resource for a number of provinces seeking investment, jobs and tax revenues. Already there are government-approved coal conversion projects (coal-to-gas, coal-to-liquids, coal-to-petrochemicals) that account for over 0.25 btpa of thermal demand. Additionally, there are planned projects that will increase demand by another 0.6 btpa. Mr. Durbin notes that “Total Chinese industrial demand for thermal coal is expected to grow from 1.5 to nearly 2.1 btpa by 2030. In comparison, the US, the world’s second largest domestic market for coal, consumes only 1.0 btpa in total. If a cap on coal consumption in China is imposed, it will come at a cost to provincial economies.”
In order for China to reduce power-driven demand for coal, a significant increase in the availability of natural gas for the power and industrial sectors is required. But Wood Mackenzie believes natural gas supplies will struggle to meet demand growth due to modest investment in conventional reserves and the very slow development of domestic unconventional shale gas reserves. Additionally, the high cost of LNG and pipeline imports is uncompetitive with low cost coal.
China’s gas price and power tariff regulations will need to be reformed in order to create incentives for the national oil companies (NOCs) to make expensive investments in unconventional gas. Mr. Durbin highlights, “Our analysis already assumes an intensive investment program in unconventionals post-2020. To ramp up shale gas developments and production faster to displace coal will require a near-doubling of investment. We expect coal to hold its cost advantage until shale gas breakeven costs fall by 40-50%."
Aside from coal substitution by natural gas, China hopes to reduce coal usage in the coastal demand centres by building Ultra High Voltage (UHV) electricity transmission lines from the Northwest and Southwest. Wood Mackenzie's report says this will have a limited impact on coal demand. The transmission lines from the northwest will transmit coal-fired generation; hence, it just moves coal demand from the coast to the interior. The UHV lines from the southwest will transmit seasonal hydro, requiring base load coal when hydro output falls. The net effect of the UHV lines and the non-coal-fired capacity is a flattening in thermal coal demand in the coastal power region.
Mr. Durbin concludes, "Government mandates to improve the environment by reducing coal use will require steep investments in alternatives, the use of emission control technology or reduce economic growth rate targets further—options which are not currently happening. But what is noteworthy, however, is that there is greater potential for further demand growth beyond our expectations. Failure to meet an aggressive non-coal power capacity build, investment in more efficient technologies and the expansion of the UHV network will increase the dependence on and use of coal. In the end, China's thermal coal demand will see persistent growth until 2030, rendering peak coal an illusion.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
About Wood Mackenzie
Wood Mackenzie is the most comprehensive source of knowledge about the world’s energy and metals industries. We analyse and advise on every stage along the value chain - from discovery to delivery, and beyond - to provide clients with the commercial insight that makes them stronger. For more information visit: www.woodmac.com
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Monday, 28 September 20
NEW LNG PROJECTS - ALL DRESSED UP AND NO PLACE TO GO - WOOD MACKENZIE
It was meant to be another boom year. After a record 70 mmtpa of new LNG capacity was sanctioned in 2019, at least as much capacity was lined up fo ...
Thursday, 24 September 20
SUPRAMAX: INDO TO INDIA FIXING AROUND US$13,000 - FEARNLEYS
Cape
Over the last week the iron ore segment from Brazil to China has picked up, and we see freight rates up USD 2 (12%) week on week Fearnleys ...
Thursday, 24 September 20
KOREA MIDLAND POWER TO BUY 1.92 MILLION TONS OF 4,300-4,700 NCV COAL FOR THREE YEARS
COALspot.com: Korea Midland Power Co. Ltd, has issued an International tender for 640,000 MT 4,300-4,700 kcal/kg NCV coal per year.
...
Wednesday, 23 September 20
VIETNAM'S NEW POWER DEVELOPMENT PLAN MUST OPTIMIZE RENEWABLES AND AVOID FOSSIL FUEL LOCK-IN: IEEFA
EVN’s financial constraints leaves the utility with little room for error
Implementing Vietnam’s soon-to-be-launched next Power De ...
Wednesday, 23 September 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Undoubtedly, this year (ongoing) will never be forgotten because in a matter of months it has managed to severely affect and shape our day to day p ...
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- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
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