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Tuesday, 04 June 13
WOOD MACKENZIE SAYS THE CHINA'S THERMAL COAL DEMAND WILL REACH NEARLY 7BTPA BY 2030
 COALspot.com - The Illusion of Peak Coal' says that despite efforts to limit coal consumption and seek alternative fuel options, China's strong appetite for thermal coal will lead to a doubling of demand by 2030. China’s demand will grow to approximately seven billion tonnes per annum (btpa) of thermal coal which is contrary to speculation that China's thermal coal demand may be reaching a peak in the next decade.
"It is very unlikely that demand for thermal coal in China will peak before 2030," states Mr. William Durbin, Wood Mackenzie’s Beijing-based President of Global Markets. "Why? Because China’s aggressive investment program for nuclear, natural gas and renewables capacity is centred in the coastal region while coal-fired capacity grows in the central and western provinces. Indeed, there are also a plethora of coal-intensive conversion projects being built or planned that are significantly adding to demand.”
"Wood Mackenzie’s analysis already takes into account a rapid improvement in energy efficiency the likes of which have not been seen. We expect power demand per unit of GDP to fall by half in just 17 years, an extraordinary achievement for an economy experiencing such sustained growth. In spite of this efficiency improvement, power demand is still set to nearly triple to 15,000 Terawatt hours (TWh) by 2030. Indeed, if expected efficiency improvements do not materialise, then in the absence of alternatives, coal demand could increase further."
Coal is an important natural resource for a number of provinces seeking investment, jobs and tax revenues. Already there are government-approved coal conversion projects (coal-to-gas, coal-to-liquids, coal-to-petrochemicals) that account for over 0.25 btpa of thermal demand. Additionally, there are planned projects that will increase demand by another 0.6 btpa. Mr. Durbin notes that “Total Chinese industrial demand for thermal coal is expected to grow from 1.5 to nearly 2.1 btpa by 2030. In comparison, the US, the world’s second largest domestic market for coal, consumes only 1.0 btpa in total. If a cap on coal consumption in China is imposed, it will come at a cost to provincial economies.”
In order for China to reduce power-driven demand for coal, a significant increase in the availability of natural gas for the power and industrial sectors is required. But Wood Mackenzie believes natural gas supplies will struggle to meet demand growth due to modest investment in conventional reserves and the very slow development of domestic unconventional shale gas reserves. Additionally, the high cost of LNG and pipeline imports is uncompetitive with low cost coal.
China’s gas price and power tariff regulations will need to be reformed in order to create incentives for the national oil companies (NOCs) to make expensive investments in unconventional gas. Mr. Durbin highlights, “Our analysis already assumes an intensive investment program in unconventionals post-2020. To ramp up shale gas developments and production faster to displace coal will require a near-doubling of investment. We expect coal to hold its cost advantage until shale gas breakeven costs fall by 40-50%."
Aside from coal substitution by natural gas, China hopes to reduce coal usage in the coastal demand centres by building Ultra High Voltage (UHV) electricity transmission lines from the Northwest and Southwest. Wood Mackenzie's report says this will have a limited impact on coal demand. The transmission lines from the northwest will transmit coal-fired generation; hence, it just moves coal demand from the coast to the interior. The UHV lines from the southwest will transmit seasonal hydro, requiring base load coal when hydro output falls. The net effect of the UHV lines and the non-coal-fired capacity is a flattening in thermal coal demand in the coastal power region.
Mr. Durbin concludes, "Government mandates to improve the environment by reducing coal use will require steep investments in alternatives, the use of emission control technology or reduce economic growth rate targets further—options which are not currently happening. But what is noteworthy, however, is that there is greater potential for further demand growth beyond our expectations. Failure to meet an aggressive non-coal power capacity build, investment in more efficient technologies and the expansion of the UHV network will increase the dependence on and use of coal. In the end, China's thermal coal demand will see persistent growth until 2030, rendering peak coal an illusion.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
About Wood Mackenzie
Wood Mackenzie is the most comprehensive source of knowledge about the world’s energy and metals industries. We analyse and advise on every stage along the value chain - from discovery to delivery, and beyond - to provide clients with the commercial insight that makes them stronger. For more information visit: www.woodmac.com
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Tuesday, 27 October 20
PLN STILL REFUSING TO ADAPT, A MOVE WHICH WILL HURT INVESTORS, CONSUMERS, AND THE GOVERNMENT PURSE - IEEFA
Utility’s latest planning report locks PLN into the past
PLN would be better served restructuring its business to address the current en ...
Monday, 26 October 20
'LONG ASCENT' TO RECOVERY OF GLOBAL GROWTH - BALTIC EXCHANGE
The global economy has so far avoided a “financial catastrophe” but growth projections from the International Monetary Fund’s lat ...
Friday, 23 October 20
SHIPPING LOANS AND COLLATERAL DAMAGE - VICTOR ONYEGBADO, AKABOGU & ASSOCIATES
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Shipping finance transactions are characterised by peculiar risk factors principally on account of the shipping asset&rsq ...
Friday, 23 October 20
WHAT WILL THE 2020 ELECTIONS MEAN FOR US ENERGY? - WOOD MACKENZIE
The 2020 elections present American voters with a choice between two radically different visions for the future of energy. President Donald Trump r ...
Wednesday, 21 October 20
BRAZIL EXPORTED 238.7 MLN TONNES OF IRON ORE IN THE FIRST 9 MONTHS OF 2020 - BANCHERO COSTA
Brazil’s iron ore exports have been gradually but steadily recovering following a disastrous winter period of 2019/2020. In the first 9 month ...
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- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
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- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
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- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
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- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
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- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
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- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
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- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Australian Coal Association
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
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- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
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- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
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- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
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- The University of Queensland
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
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- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
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