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Friday, 19 April 13
FIRST QUARTER OF 2013 PROVEN A POSITIVE SURPRISE FOR DRY BULK MARKET - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS


Despite ominous predictions regarding the negative performance of the dry bulk market during the – traditionally weak anyway – first quarter of the year, it seems that the market dodged a bullet and escaped unscathed from the tonnage oversupply concerns. According to the latest weekly report from shipbroker Intermodal, the first quarter proved to be a positive one for most of the mid-to-small sizes, like Panamaxes, Supras and Handies. Time-charter equivalent earnings have brought some relief as earnings improved and moved to a positive territory beyond the point of covering their operating expenses.

According to Intermodal's S&P shipbroker Yannis Olziersky, "the strong demand for tonnage is driven mainly by the South American grain season, which pushed Panamax rates to an unexpectedly significant improvement. In the Pacific, Panamaxes also found support due to the increased demand for Indonesian exports such as iron ore, bauxite, nickel ore and coal. As a result the BPI during March averaged at around 1,147 points, with rates for a front haul voyage rising up to US$ 18,000/day and round voyages in the Far East edging up to US$ 10,000/day.

Smaller segments like Supras and Handies gained higher returns due to the grain season and their indices where raised by 30% and 20% respectively. On the other hand, weak demand persisted in the Cape size market, which failed to sustain gains. Disruptions in mineral cargo supply like iron ore and coal combined with the massive supply of vessels have driven the Cape size average T/C earnings to sink below US$ 5,000/day, which is the lowest level since Q3 2012", Olziersky said.

He added that "the upward trend in freight rates during Q1 2013 has also affected asset values. Second hand prices have been inched up in all segments (including Capers despite their downward trend in freight). Additionally, activity on the second hand market has also picked up significantly. A comparison between the dry bulk units sold back in Q1 2012 and those reported sold in Q1 2013, points towards an increase in activity by as much as 40pct.

The million dollar question is whether we have seen the bottom on asset values or not. Quite hard and risky to say, however certain things show that present values are attractive enough and, in the mind of some owners, prices have indeed touched the ground. Some facts which may support this perspective are:

Prices in all segments and especially for quality modern tonnage have shown a noticeable upward correction since February/January.
- Major players whom are traditional shipowners are buying vessels and appear to have appetite for more.
- A significant number of Buyers are inspecting quality tonnage that enters the market. In some occasions we hear more than 20 parties inspecting and chasing the same vessel!
- Orderbook to fleet ratio has been reduced significantly and today stands at 16% compared to last year which was at around 26%.
- Fleet removals are still going at a satisfactory pace. Upheld firm demo prices are assisting owners in making the difficult decision to scrap their older units", the shipbroker stated in the report.

He went on to conclude his argument by raising the questions of "Are we moving towards the right direction? and "Is this the right time for investments?. Two questions which time can only answer but by which time it may well be too late to get on board. Given the present facts and market trends though, we feel we may be witnessing a glimpse of hope and a glimmer at the end of the tunnel", he concluded.
Source:  Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping news



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