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Thursday, 18 April 13
FEATURE: PREDICTING THE FUTURE - AND THE PAST - BIMCO
 It’s not predicting the future that is problematical, it’s the realisation that you have to relive the past again and again when you fail to learn from your mistakes. So much so in fact that, like a scientist studying the formation of the universe, it should become possible to predict the past too.
Shipping knows exactly how this feels, having ignored the simplest of supply/demand equations and instead put its faith in fanciful predictions that the world – and therefore business – had changed forever.
The trouble is that the more things change, the more they also stay the same. The belief that an industry could break completely free of the cycles which had marked its history for hundreds of years was in fact a departure from reality, the consequences of which we continue to live with.
At least we know now, in case we did not before, that the world will continue to be a difficult place in which to trade, and one need only attend one of the regular shipping industry trade shows to experience that feeling first hand.
Even in Asia, grounded more in trade and consumption rather than the optimism of capital markets, there is an expectation that the world which emerges from the industry’s longest downturn in a generation will be different to the one that went into it.
Classification Society Lloyd’s Register used the recent Singapore Maritime Week to launch its own piece of long range research, laying down competing scenarios of what the industry might have to be grappling with by 2030.
A thorough piece of work put together by LR, QinetiQ and Strathclyde University, it nonetheless can only really succeed in telling the reader what they might already suspect, particularly with regard to the economic/political backdrop.
It seems highly unlikely, for example, that the world will adopt anything but an aggressive posture to protection and preference, not simply for the length of the recession but subsequently, as the emerging nations that (again, we know) will come to dominate the industry flex their muscles.
The shipping industry gives thanks en masse for China’s rise but it must surely recognise that the trading partner with which it will have to deal is no US, no Europe, not even a Russia.
Shipping has traditionally enjoyed freedom of capital, movement of people, goods and services, all commodities it cannot be certain will be so readily available in future. The evidence of the tension emerging in Singapore last week over the need to balance immigration against the requirement to import skills to cement the city-state’s future growth is one clear example and far from being the only one.
Shipping also likes to be left alone and to do its own thing, rather in the same way as entrepreneurs enjoy conditions of privacy to found and grow businesses – unfettered by regulation and competitive constraints, served by relatively free-flowing debt financing.
Again, little to no hope there. Shipping’s dalliance with unreality has left it, if not high and dry, then in a new room with different lenders with very different ideas compared to its former ship finance partners.
Shipping is also highly regulated, but in some areas, less highly regulated than other comparable industries. The trouble is that the industry has done a bad job too often of arguing its case that the positives outweigh the negatives.
There are a number of reasons for that, not least that its main regulator has to juggle the demands of being a technical body on the one hand with being a political one on the other. The tidal wave of opprobrium heaped upon regulators during CMA was a little less obvious during Maritime Week but it is clear the costs of compliance, the need to demonstrate transparency and the requirement to operate under greater scrutiny will all be firm future requirements.
But can shipping change by enough to meet these needs? Of course it should – by practising restraint, by being more commercially adept, by making friends with regulators earlier in the rulemaking process, by recognising that market share without profit margin is a pointless metric and that it something looks too good to be true, it probably is.
To carve out a survival strategy that goes beyond merely putting off the inevitable for another seven years, shipping certainly has to get smarter, and not just in terms of the above commercial issues, however pressing they appear.
Shipping needs to cure itself of the affliction that it has suffered under for at least the last 20 years – you take care of providing sufficient growth, we’ll take care of the rest. The industry is being asked tough questions about its place in the world, just at the time when it has demonstrated the definition of commercial irresponsibility and lack of regulatory engagement. So, back to the future. There is a fine living to be made predicting even short term scenarios, but better cuttings and weblinks to be garnered by mopping up in the aftermath. Most of those doing the latter focus on how we failed to spot the emergence of various technologies and services in time to either make our fortunes or to adopt them to our competitive advantage, preferring to dismiss them as the short term fads driven by people who just want to sell us things before our current things have worn out.
But watch this space – there are two factors that will be decisive in marking out corporates for survival and perhaps the wider industry for adaptive evolution: attitudes to people and the use of technology. The entry into force of the MLC might not by itself guarantee better working conditions for all seafarers but it demonstrates a much clearer focus by regulators that owners will be unable to ignore and should turn to their advantage.
And as for technology? Well, without new approaches to designing, building and operating ships, incorporating not just some tried and trusted techniques but new – and as yet unproven – technologies, there is little hope of meeting future regulatory hurdles and energy efficiency requirements.
I said that predicting the past was possible and here is the history lesson. Owners will adapt and survive. Some will leave the stage and some big names disappear but long before 2030, we will see a new industry emerge. In fact this is not a prediction. It will have to happen.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping
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Friday, 02 February 24
DRY BULK MARKET: THE DOWNWARD REVISION IN THE GROWTH OF CAPESIZE TONNE DAYS IN JANUARY WITH THE BCI DROPPING - MARIA BERTZELETOU
In the last week of January, the dry freight market sustained weakness in the Capesize segment, while the number of ballasters in the Southeast (SE ...
Friday, 02 February 24
COAL INDIA ACHIEVES NEARLY 80% OF ITS FY24 PRODUCTION TARGET IN TEN MONTHS - CNBCTV18
For the month of January, the company’s production grew by 9.1% from the same period last year to 78.4 Million Tonnes (MT), from 71.9 MT last ...
Thursday, 01 February 24
CHINA'S WIND, SOLAR CAPACITY TO OVERTAKE COAL IN 2024 - INDUSTRY BODY, REUTERS REPORTED
China’s installed wind and solar capacity is expected to overtake coal for the first time this year, according to industry forecasts.
&nb ...
Thursday, 01 February 24
ANTI-DEDUCTION CLAUSES: CAN A CHARTERER WITHHOLD HIRE WITHOUT AN OWNER'S CONSENT? - SKULD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Summary
In The Anna Dorothea, the Court found that where a charterparty provides that no deduction from hire may be m ...
Thursday, 01 February 24
INDIA REBUILDS COAL STOCKS TO ENSURE ELECTRIC RELIABILITY - REUTERS
India’s electricity supply is much more comfortable at the start of 2024 than in either 2023 or 2022 as coal production has ramped up and the ...
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- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Planning Commission, India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
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