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Thursday, 18 April 13
FEATURE: PREDICTING THE FUTURE - AND THE PAST - BIMCO
 It’s not predicting the future that is problematical, it’s the realisation that you have to relive the past again and again when you fail to learn from your mistakes. So much so in fact that, like a scientist studying the formation of the universe, it should become possible to predict the past too.
Shipping knows exactly how this feels, having ignored the simplest of supply/demand equations and instead put its faith in fanciful predictions that the world – and therefore business – had changed forever.
The trouble is that the more things change, the more they also stay the same. The belief that an industry could break completely free of the cycles which had marked its history for hundreds of years was in fact a departure from reality, the consequences of which we continue to live with.
At least we know now, in case we did not before, that the world will continue to be a difficult place in which to trade, and one need only attend one of the regular shipping industry trade shows to experience that feeling first hand.
Even in Asia, grounded more in trade and consumption rather than the optimism of capital markets, there is an expectation that the world which emerges from the industry’s longest downturn in a generation will be different to the one that went into it.
Classification Society Lloyd’s Register used the recent Singapore Maritime Week to launch its own piece of long range research, laying down competing scenarios of what the industry might have to be grappling with by 2030.
A thorough piece of work put together by LR, QinetiQ and Strathclyde University, it nonetheless can only really succeed in telling the reader what they might already suspect, particularly with regard to the economic/political backdrop.
It seems highly unlikely, for example, that the world will adopt anything but an aggressive posture to protection and preference, not simply for the length of the recession but subsequently, as the emerging nations that (again, we know) will come to dominate the industry flex their muscles.
The shipping industry gives thanks en masse for China’s rise but it must surely recognise that the trading partner with which it will have to deal is no US, no Europe, not even a Russia.
Shipping has traditionally enjoyed freedom of capital, movement of people, goods and services, all commodities it cannot be certain will be so readily available in future. The evidence of the tension emerging in Singapore last week over the need to balance immigration against the requirement to import skills to cement the city-state’s future growth is one clear example and far from being the only one.
Shipping also likes to be left alone and to do its own thing, rather in the same way as entrepreneurs enjoy conditions of privacy to found and grow businesses – unfettered by regulation and competitive constraints, served by relatively free-flowing debt financing.
Again, little to no hope there. Shipping’s dalliance with unreality has left it, if not high and dry, then in a new room with different lenders with very different ideas compared to its former ship finance partners.
Shipping is also highly regulated, but in some areas, less highly regulated than other comparable industries. The trouble is that the industry has done a bad job too often of arguing its case that the positives outweigh the negatives.
There are a number of reasons for that, not least that its main regulator has to juggle the demands of being a technical body on the one hand with being a political one on the other. The tidal wave of opprobrium heaped upon regulators during CMA was a little less obvious during Maritime Week but it is clear the costs of compliance, the need to demonstrate transparency and the requirement to operate under greater scrutiny will all be firm future requirements.
But can shipping change by enough to meet these needs? Of course it should – by practising restraint, by being more commercially adept, by making friends with regulators earlier in the rulemaking process, by recognising that market share without profit margin is a pointless metric and that it something looks too good to be true, it probably is.
To carve out a survival strategy that goes beyond merely putting off the inevitable for another seven years, shipping certainly has to get smarter, and not just in terms of the above commercial issues, however pressing they appear.
Shipping needs to cure itself of the affliction that it has suffered under for at least the last 20 years – you take care of providing sufficient growth, we’ll take care of the rest. The industry is being asked tough questions about its place in the world, just at the time when it has demonstrated the definition of commercial irresponsibility and lack of regulatory engagement. So, back to the future. There is a fine living to be made predicting even short term scenarios, but better cuttings and weblinks to be garnered by mopping up in the aftermath. Most of those doing the latter focus on how we failed to spot the emergence of various technologies and services in time to either make our fortunes or to adopt them to our competitive advantage, preferring to dismiss them as the short term fads driven by people who just want to sell us things before our current things have worn out.
But watch this space – there are two factors that will be decisive in marking out corporates for survival and perhaps the wider industry for adaptive evolution: attitudes to people and the use of technology. The entry into force of the MLC might not by itself guarantee better working conditions for all seafarers but it demonstrates a much clearer focus by regulators that owners will be unable to ignore and should turn to their advantage.
And as for technology? Well, without new approaches to designing, building and operating ships, incorporating not just some tried and trusted techniques but new – and as yet unproven – technologies, there is little hope of meeting future regulatory hurdles and energy efficiency requirements.
I said that predicting the past was possible and here is the history lesson. Owners will adapt and survive. Some will leave the stage and some big names disappear but long before 2030, we will see a new industry emerge. In fact this is not a prediction. It will have to happen.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping
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Friday, 23 February 24
STRONG OUTLOOK FOR THE TANKER MARKET IN 2024 AND BEYOND - DNV
Several factors have aligned over the past two years to create a robust and profitable market for tanker owners, which is expected to drive newbuil ...
Friday, 23 February 24
AUSTRALIAN COAL FLOWS TO ASIA HOVER ABOVE LAST YEAR’S VOLUME TONNES - SIGNAL GROUP
In the final days of February, the dry bulk freight market appeared to maintain a relatively stable momentum, particularly evident in the large ves ...
Friday, 23 February 24
RUSSIAN COAL SHIPMENTS FALL 14% AS SANCTIONS BITE - BIMCO
During the first seven weeks of 2024, Russian coal shipments have fallen 14% y/y. Volumes have gradually declined since October 2023 when logistica ...
Thursday, 22 February 24
BIMCO PUBLISHES SHIP FINANCING FORMS TO ENSURE UNINTERRUPTED USE OF SHIPS
BIMCO has published two standard Quiet Enjoyment Letters (QELs), the first standard form QELs available to the industry, to offer a tool that can e ...
Monday, 19 February 24
METALS INVESTMENT: THE DARKEST HOUR IS JUST BEFORE THE DAWN - WOOD MACKENZIE
Things often seem at their worst just before they get better. In terms of meeting our net zero 2050 scenario, we’ve reached a watershed momen ...
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Showing 31 to 35 news of total 6871 |
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- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- The University of Queensland
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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