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Thursday, 18 April 13
FEATURE: PREDICTING THE FUTURE - AND THE PAST - BIMCO
 It’s not predicting the future that is problematical, it’s the realisation that you have to relive the past again and again when you fail to learn from your mistakes. So much so in fact that, like a scientist studying the formation of the universe, it should become possible to predict the past too.
Shipping knows exactly how this feels, having ignored the simplest of supply/demand equations and instead put its faith in fanciful predictions that the world – and therefore business – had changed forever.
The trouble is that the more things change, the more they also stay the same. The belief that an industry could break completely free of the cycles which had marked its history for hundreds of years was in fact a departure from reality, the consequences of which we continue to live with.
At least we know now, in case we did not before, that the world will continue to be a difficult place in which to trade, and one need only attend one of the regular shipping industry trade shows to experience that feeling first hand.
Even in Asia, grounded more in trade and consumption rather than the optimism of capital markets, there is an expectation that the world which emerges from the industry’s longest downturn in a generation will be different to the one that went into it.
Classification Society Lloyd’s Register used the recent Singapore Maritime Week to launch its own piece of long range research, laying down competing scenarios of what the industry might have to be grappling with by 2030.
A thorough piece of work put together by LR, QinetiQ and Strathclyde University, it nonetheless can only really succeed in telling the reader what they might already suspect, particularly with regard to the economic/political backdrop.
It seems highly unlikely, for example, that the world will adopt anything but an aggressive posture to protection and preference, not simply for the length of the recession but subsequently, as the emerging nations that (again, we know) will come to dominate the industry flex their muscles.
The shipping industry gives thanks en masse for China’s rise but it must surely recognise that the trading partner with which it will have to deal is no US, no Europe, not even a Russia.
Shipping has traditionally enjoyed freedom of capital, movement of people, goods and services, all commodities it cannot be certain will be so readily available in future. The evidence of the tension emerging in Singapore last week over the need to balance immigration against the requirement to import skills to cement the city-state’s future growth is one clear example and far from being the only one.
Shipping also likes to be left alone and to do its own thing, rather in the same way as entrepreneurs enjoy conditions of privacy to found and grow businesses – unfettered by regulation and competitive constraints, served by relatively free-flowing debt financing.
Again, little to no hope there. Shipping’s dalliance with unreality has left it, if not high and dry, then in a new room with different lenders with very different ideas compared to its former ship finance partners.
Shipping is also highly regulated, but in some areas, less highly regulated than other comparable industries. The trouble is that the industry has done a bad job too often of arguing its case that the positives outweigh the negatives.
There are a number of reasons for that, not least that its main regulator has to juggle the demands of being a technical body on the one hand with being a political one on the other. The tidal wave of opprobrium heaped upon regulators during CMA was a little less obvious during Maritime Week but it is clear the costs of compliance, the need to demonstrate transparency and the requirement to operate under greater scrutiny will all be firm future requirements.
But can shipping change by enough to meet these needs? Of course it should – by practising restraint, by being more commercially adept, by making friends with regulators earlier in the rulemaking process, by recognising that market share without profit margin is a pointless metric and that it something looks too good to be true, it probably is.
To carve out a survival strategy that goes beyond merely putting off the inevitable for another seven years, shipping certainly has to get smarter, and not just in terms of the above commercial issues, however pressing they appear.
Shipping needs to cure itself of the affliction that it has suffered under for at least the last 20 years – you take care of providing sufficient growth, we’ll take care of the rest. The industry is being asked tough questions about its place in the world, just at the time when it has demonstrated the definition of commercial irresponsibility and lack of regulatory engagement. So, back to the future. There is a fine living to be made predicting even short term scenarios, but better cuttings and weblinks to be garnered by mopping up in the aftermath. Most of those doing the latter focus on how we failed to spot the emergence of various technologies and services in time to either make our fortunes or to adopt them to our competitive advantage, preferring to dismiss them as the short term fads driven by people who just want to sell us things before our current things have worn out.
But watch this space – there are two factors that will be decisive in marking out corporates for survival and perhaps the wider industry for adaptive evolution: attitudes to people and the use of technology. The entry into force of the MLC might not by itself guarantee better working conditions for all seafarers but it demonstrates a much clearer focus by regulators that owners will be unable to ignore and should turn to their advantage.
And as for technology? Well, without new approaches to designing, building and operating ships, incorporating not just some tried and trusted techniques but new – and as yet unproven – technologies, there is little hope of meeting future regulatory hurdles and energy efficiency requirements.
I said that predicting the past was possible and here is the history lesson. Owners will adapt and survive. Some will leave the stage and some big names disappear but long before 2030, we will see a new industry emerge. In fact this is not a prediction. It will have to happen.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping
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Monday, 24 June 24
PHILIPPINES COAL SUPPLY ENOUGH UNTIL 2030 - PHILSTAR GLOBAL
The country’s existing coal-fired power plants are sufficient to ensure enough base load capacity in the next six years, Energy Secretary Rap ...
Friday, 14 June 24
NEXTDECADE, SAUDI ARAMCO SIGN 20-YEAR LNG SUPPLY DEAL - REUTERS
U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) provider NextDecade has signed a non-binding agreement with Saudi Aramco 2222.SE to supply 1.2 million tonnes per ...
Friday, 14 June 24
NEWBUILDING PRICES CLIMB 3% TO HIGHEST LEVEL IN 16 YEARS - NIELS RASMUSSEN
“Since the start of the year, newbuilding prices have risen 3% to their highest level since 2008. Compared to their most recent low in late 2 ...
Friday, 14 June 24
INDIA TARGETS HIGHER DOMESTIC COAL PRODUCTION, REDUCED IMPORTS: GOVT - REUTERS
India wants to reduce coal imports and increase domestic production, federal coal minister G. Kishan Reddy said on Thursday.
The cou ...
Thursday, 13 June 24
US LNG TO ASIA FOR POWER GENERATION EXPECTED TO CUT EMISSIONS VERSUS COAL - RYSTAD ENERGY
The value-chain emissions of liquified natural gas (LNG) are lower on average than for coal-fired power generation, even when the fuel is shipp ...
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- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The University of Queensland
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Planning Commission, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PTC India Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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