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Thursday, 18 April 13
FEATURE: PREDICTING THE FUTURE - AND THE PAST - BIMCO
 It’s not predicting the future that is problematical, it’s the realisation that you have to relive the past again and again when you fail to learn from your mistakes. So much so in fact that, like a scientist studying the formation of the universe, it should become possible to predict the past too.
Shipping knows exactly how this feels, having ignored the simplest of supply/demand equations and instead put its faith in fanciful predictions that the world – and therefore business – had changed forever.
The trouble is that the more things change, the more they also stay the same. The belief that an industry could break completely free of the cycles which had marked its history for hundreds of years was in fact a departure from reality, the consequences of which we continue to live with.
At least we know now, in case we did not before, that the world will continue to be a difficult place in which to trade, and one need only attend one of the regular shipping industry trade shows to experience that feeling first hand.
Even in Asia, grounded more in trade and consumption rather than the optimism of capital markets, there is an expectation that the world which emerges from the industry’s longest downturn in a generation will be different to the one that went into it.
Classification Society Lloyd’s Register used the recent Singapore Maritime Week to launch its own piece of long range research, laying down competing scenarios of what the industry might have to be grappling with by 2030.
A thorough piece of work put together by LR, QinetiQ and Strathclyde University, it nonetheless can only really succeed in telling the reader what they might already suspect, particularly with regard to the economic/political backdrop.
It seems highly unlikely, for example, that the world will adopt anything but an aggressive posture to protection and preference, not simply for the length of the recession but subsequently, as the emerging nations that (again, we know) will come to dominate the industry flex their muscles.
The shipping industry gives thanks en masse for China’s rise but it must surely recognise that the trading partner with which it will have to deal is no US, no Europe, not even a Russia.
Shipping has traditionally enjoyed freedom of capital, movement of people, goods and services, all commodities it cannot be certain will be so readily available in future. The evidence of the tension emerging in Singapore last week over the need to balance immigration against the requirement to import skills to cement the city-state’s future growth is one clear example and far from being the only one.
Shipping also likes to be left alone and to do its own thing, rather in the same way as entrepreneurs enjoy conditions of privacy to found and grow businesses – unfettered by regulation and competitive constraints, served by relatively free-flowing debt financing.
Again, little to no hope there. Shipping’s dalliance with unreality has left it, if not high and dry, then in a new room with different lenders with very different ideas compared to its former ship finance partners.
Shipping is also highly regulated, but in some areas, less highly regulated than other comparable industries. The trouble is that the industry has done a bad job too often of arguing its case that the positives outweigh the negatives.
There are a number of reasons for that, not least that its main regulator has to juggle the demands of being a technical body on the one hand with being a political one on the other. The tidal wave of opprobrium heaped upon regulators during CMA was a little less obvious during Maritime Week but it is clear the costs of compliance, the need to demonstrate transparency and the requirement to operate under greater scrutiny will all be firm future requirements.
But can shipping change by enough to meet these needs? Of course it should – by practising restraint, by being more commercially adept, by making friends with regulators earlier in the rulemaking process, by recognising that market share without profit margin is a pointless metric and that it something looks too good to be true, it probably is.
To carve out a survival strategy that goes beyond merely putting off the inevitable for another seven years, shipping certainly has to get smarter, and not just in terms of the above commercial issues, however pressing they appear.
Shipping needs to cure itself of the affliction that it has suffered under for at least the last 20 years – you take care of providing sufficient growth, we’ll take care of the rest. The industry is being asked tough questions about its place in the world, just at the time when it has demonstrated the definition of commercial irresponsibility and lack of regulatory engagement. So, back to the future. There is a fine living to be made predicting even short term scenarios, but better cuttings and weblinks to be garnered by mopping up in the aftermath. Most of those doing the latter focus on how we failed to spot the emergence of various technologies and services in time to either make our fortunes or to adopt them to our competitive advantage, preferring to dismiss them as the short term fads driven by people who just want to sell us things before our current things have worn out.
But watch this space – there are two factors that will be decisive in marking out corporates for survival and perhaps the wider industry for adaptive evolution: attitudes to people and the use of technology. The entry into force of the MLC might not by itself guarantee better working conditions for all seafarers but it demonstrates a much clearer focus by regulators that owners will be unable to ignore and should turn to their advantage.
And as for technology? Well, without new approaches to designing, building and operating ships, incorporating not just some tried and trusted techniques but new – and as yet unproven – technologies, there is little hope of meeting future regulatory hurdles and energy efficiency requirements.
I said that predicting the past was possible and here is the history lesson. Owners will adapt and survive. Some will leave the stage and some big names disappear but long before 2030, we will see a new industry emerge. In fact this is not a prediction. It will have to happen.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping
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Friday, 28 June 24
INDIAN POWER STATIONS STOCKED WITH BUMPER COAL SUPPLY AS TRANSPORT WOES EASE - BUSINESS STANDARD
Even as power demand has touched a historic high of 250 gigawatts (Gw) amid sweltering heat this June, India’s power stations are stocked wit ...
Friday, 28 June 24
INDIA'S CY23 COAL USE LARGER THAN NORTH AMERICA, EUROPE COMBINED - THE HINDU
For the first time, India’s coal consumption surpassed that of North America and Europe combined in the calendar year 2023, said Energy Insti ...
Monday, 24 June 24
PLN'S FINANCIAL SUSTAINABILITY RESTS ON ACCELERATED COAL RETIREMENT AND RENEWABLES DEPLOYMENT - MUTYA YUSTIKA
On 28 May 2024, Indonesia’s national electricity utility, PT Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN), released its financial report for 2023. Althoug ...
Monday, 24 June 24
INDIA'S COAL-BASED POWER DEMAND AT ALL-TIME HIGH, GOVERNMENT SAYS - REUTERS
India’s demand for coal-based power has risen by 7.3% this fiscal year to an all-time high, the government said in a statement on Wednesday.
...
Monday, 24 June 24
CHINA'S COAL INDUSTRY TURNS GREENER THROUGH INNOVATIVE APPROACHES - PEOPLE'S DAILY
At an opencast mine operated by Inner Mongolia Pingzhuang Coal Group Co. Ltd., a subsidiary of CHN Energy Investment Group (CHN Energy), a 14-meter ...
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Showing 11 to 15 news of total 6871 |
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- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PTC India Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
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