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Thursday, 18 April 13
FEATURE: PREDICTING THE FUTURE - AND THE PAST - BIMCO
 It’s not predicting the future that is problematical, it’s the realisation that you have to relive the past again and again when you fail to learn from your mistakes. So much so in fact that, like a scientist studying the formation of the universe, it should become possible to predict the past too.
Shipping knows exactly how this feels, having ignored the simplest of supply/demand equations and instead put its faith in fanciful predictions that the world – and therefore business – had changed forever.
The trouble is that the more things change, the more they also stay the same. The belief that an industry could break completely free of the cycles which had marked its history for hundreds of years was in fact a departure from reality, the consequences of which we continue to live with.
At least we know now, in case we did not before, that the world will continue to be a difficult place in which to trade, and one need only attend one of the regular shipping industry trade shows to experience that feeling first hand.
Even in Asia, grounded more in trade and consumption rather than the optimism of capital markets, there is an expectation that the world which emerges from the industry’s longest downturn in a generation will be different to the one that went into it.
Classification Society Lloyd’s Register used the recent Singapore Maritime Week to launch its own piece of long range research, laying down competing scenarios of what the industry might have to be grappling with by 2030.
A thorough piece of work put together by LR, QinetiQ and Strathclyde University, it nonetheless can only really succeed in telling the reader what they might already suspect, particularly with regard to the economic/political backdrop.
It seems highly unlikely, for example, that the world will adopt anything but an aggressive posture to protection and preference, not simply for the length of the recession but subsequently, as the emerging nations that (again, we know) will come to dominate the industry flex their muscles.
The shipping industry gives thanks en masse for China’s rise but it must surely recognise that the trading partner with which it will have to deal is no US, no Europe, not even a Russia.
Shipping has traditionally enjoyed freedom of capital, movement of people, goods and services, all commodities it cannot be certain will be so readily available in future. The evidence of the tension emerging in Singapore last week over the need to balance immigration against the requirement to import skills to cement the city-state’s future growth is one clear example and far from being the only one.
Shipping also likes to be left alone and to do its own thing, rather in the same way as entrepreneurs enjoy conditions of privacy to found and grow businesses – unfettered by regulation and competitive constraints, served by relatively free-flowing debt financing.
Again, little to no hope there. Shipping’s dalliance with unreality has left it, if not high and dry, then in a new room with different lenders with very different ideas compared to its former ship finance partners.
Shipping is also highly regulated, but in some areas, less highly regulated than other comparable industries. The trouble is that the industry has done a bad job too often of arguing its case that the positives outweigh the negatives.
There are a number of reasons for that, not least that its main regulator has to juggle the demands of being a technical body on the one hand with being a political one on the other. The tidal wave of opprobrium heaped upon regulators during CMA was a little less obvious during Maritime Week but it is clear the costs of compliance, the need to demonstrate transparency and the requirement to operate under greater scrutiny will all be firm future requirements.
But can shipping change by enough to meet these needs? Of course it should – by practising restraint, by being more commercially adept, by making friends with regulators earlier in the rulemaking process, by recognising that market share without profit margin is a pointless metric and that it something looks too good to be true, it probably is.
To carve out a survival strategy that goes beyond merely putting off the inevitable for another seven years, shipping certainly has to get smarter, and not just in terms of the above commercial issues, however pressing they appear.
Shipping needs to cure itself of the affliction that it has suffered under for at least the last 20 years – you take care of providing sufficient growth, we’ll take care of the rest. The industry is being asked tough questions about its place in the world, just at the time when it has demonstrated the definition of commercial irresponsibility and lack of regulatory engagement. So, back to the future. There is a fine living to be made predicting even short term scenarios, but better cuttings and weblinks to be garnered by mopping up in the aftermath. Most of those doing the latter focus on how we failed to spot the emergence of various technologies and services in time to either make our fortunes or to adopt them to our competitive advantage, preferring to dismiss them as the short term fads driven by people who just want to sell us things before our current things have worn out.
But watch this space – there are two factors that will be decisive in marking out corporates for survival and perhaps the wider industry for adaptive evolution: attitudes to people and the use of technology. The entry into force of the MLC might not by itself guarantee better working conditions for all seafarers but it demonstrates a much clearer focus by regulators that owners will be unable to ignore and should turn to their advantage.
And as for technology? Well, without new approaches to designing, building and operating ships, incorporating not just some tried and trusted techniques but new – and as yet unproven – technologies, there is little hope of meeting future regulatory hurdles and energy efficiency requirements.
I said that predicting the past was possible and here is the history lesson. Owners will adapt and survive. Some will leave the stage and some big names disappear but long before 2030, we will see a new industry emerge. In fact this is not a prediction. It will have to happen.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping
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Friday, 02 August 24
COAL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: FALLING PRICES AMID RECORD-HIGH OUTPUT - WORLD BANK
Coal prices inched up in May (m/m) following an 8 percent decline in 2024Q1. The Australian and South African benchmarks have plummeted more ...
Friday, 26 July 24
FUELEU MARITME IS COMING. IS YOUR CHARTERPARTY READY? - GARD
With less than six months to implementation of FuelEU Maritime in EU and EEA trades, there has been little published advice regarding how to alloca ...
Thursday, 04 July 24
INDIA'S COAL PRODUCTION RISES 14% IN JUNE - PTI
The country’s coal production rose by 14.49% to 84.63 million tonne (MT) in June. The country’s coal output was 73.92 MT in June last f ...
Tuesday, 02 July 24
NTPC CAPTIVE COAL OUTPUT GROWS 15% IN Q1; DESPATCH RISES 17%
State-owned NTPC on Monday reported a 15 per cent year-on-year increase in the production of coal from captives mines to 9.862 metric million tonne ...
Friday, 28 June 24
KOSPO INVITED BIDS FOR 400,000 MT OF MINIMUM 4000 NCV COAL FOR FIVE YEARS
Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO), is inviting bids for total 400,000 MT of Low Calorific Value Coal for 5 years starting from July 2024 until ...
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- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Australian Coal Association
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The University of Queensland
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
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