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Thursday, 18 April 13
FEATURE: PREDICTING THE FUTURE - AND THE PAST - BIMCO
 It’s not predicting the future that is problematical, it’s the realisation that you have to relive the past again and again when you fail to learn from your mistakes. So much so in fact that, like a scientist studying the formation of the universe, it should become possible to predict the past too.
Shipping knows exactly how this feels, having ignored the simplest of supply/demand equations and instead put its faith in fanciful predictions that the world – and therefore business – had changed forever.
The trouble is that the more things change, the more they also stay the same. The belief that an industry could break completely free of the cycles which had marked its history for hundreds of years was in fact a departure from reality, the consequences of which we continue to live with.
At least we know now, in case we did not before, that the world will continue to be a difficult place in which to trade, and one need only attend one of the regular shipping industry trade shows to experience that feeling first hand.
Even in Asia, grounded more in trade and consumption rather than the optimism of capital markets, there is an expectation that the world which emerges from the industry’s longest downturn in a generation will be different to the one that went into it.
Classification Society Lloyd’s Register used the recent Singapore Maritime Week to launch its own piece of long range research, laying down competing scenarios of what the industry might have to be grappling with by 2030.
A thorough piece of work put together by LR, QinetiQ and Strathclyde University, it nonetheless can only really succeed in telling the reader what they might already suspect, particularly with regard to the economic/political backdrop.
It seems highly unlikely, for example, that the world will adopt anything but an aggressive posture to protection and preference, not simply for the length of the recession but subsequently, as the emerging nations that (again, we know) will come to dominate the industry flex their muscles.
The shipping industry gives thanks en masse for China’s rise but it must surely recognise that the trading partner with which it will have to deal is no US, no Europe, not even a Russia.
Shipping has traditionally enjoyed freedom of capital, movement of people, goods and services, all commodities it cannot be certain will be so readily available in future. The evidence of the tension emerging in Singapore last week over the need to balance immigration against the requirement to import skills to cement the city-state’s future growth is one clear example and far from being the only one.
Shipping also likes to be left alone and to do its own thing, rather in the same way as entrepreneurs enjoy conditions of privacy to found and grow businesses – unfettered by regulation and competitive constraints, served by relatively free-flowing debt financing.
Again, little to no hope there. Shipping’s dalliance with unreality has left it, if not high and dry, then in a new room with different lenders with very different ideas compared to its former ship finance partners.
Shipping is also highly regulated, but in some areas, less highly regulated than other comparable industries. The trouble is that the industry has done a bad job too often of arguing its case that the positives outweigh the negatives.
There are a number of reasons for that, not least that its main regulator has to juggle the demands of being a technical body on the one hand with being a political one on the other. The tidal wave of opprobrium heaped upon regulators during CMA was a little less obvious during Maritime Week but it is clear the costs of compliance, the need to demonstrate transparency and the requirement to operate under greater scrutiny will all be firm future requirements.
But can shipping change by enough to meet these needs? Of course it should – by practising restraint, by being more commercially adept, by making friends with regulators earlier in the rulemaking process, by recognising that market share without profit margin is a pointless metric and that it something looks too good to be true, it probably is.
To carve out a survival strategy that goes beyond merely putting off the inevitable for another seven years, shipping certainly has to get smarter, and not just in terms of the above commercial issues, however pressing they appear.
Shipping needs to cure itself of the affliction that it has suffered under for at least the last 20 years – you take care of providing sufficient growth, we’ll take care of the rest. The industry is being asked tough questions about its place in the world, just at the time when it has demonstrated the definition of commercial irresponsibility and lack of regulatory engagement. So, back to the future. There is a fine living to be made predicting even short term scenarios, but better cuttings and weblinks to be garnered by mopping up in the aftermath. Most of those doing the latter focus on how we failed to spot the emergence of various technologies and services in time to either make our fortunes or to adopt them to our competitive advantage, preferring to dismiss them as the short term fads driven by people who just want to sell us things before our current things have worn out.
But watch this space – there are two factors that will be decisive in marking out corporates for survival and perhaps the wider industry for adaptive evolution: attitudes to people and the use of technology. The entry into force of the MLC might not by itself guarantee better working conditions for all seafarers but it demonstrates a much clearer focus by regulators that owners will be unable to ignore and should turn to their advantage.
And as for technology? Well, without new approaches to designing, building and operating ships, incorporating not just some tried and trusted techniques but new – and as yet unproven – technologies, there is little hope of meeting future regulatory hurdles and energy efficiency requirements.
I said that predicting the past was possible and here is the history lesson. Owners will adapt and survive. Some will leave the stage and some big names disappear but long before 2030, we will see a new industry emerge. In fact this is not a prediction. It will have to happen.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping
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Friday, 18 September 20
INDIA'S COAL-FIRED POWER OUTPUT PICKS UP AS INDUSTRIAL USE RISES - REUTERS
India’s coal-fired electricity generation rose 9.4% in the first half of September, provisional government data showed, as demand from indust ...
Friday, 18 September 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Thursday, 17 September 20
LAST HOPES FOR DEMAND GROWTH SET TO DISAPPOINT THERMAL COAL EXPORTERS - IEEFA
Asian thermal coal exporters are fighting an uphill battle even in new markets
The world’s largest thermal coal exporter is eyeing new m ...
Wednesday, 16 September 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Another active week in terms of SnP has concluded in the dry bulk market with a diversified array of transactions recorded. Despite the correction ...
Friday, 11 September 20
IMO 2020: A REVIEW OF THE TRANSITION TO VLSFOS - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Many predictions were made in the run up to the imposition of the MARPOL 2020 sulphur cap, none of which was that the tra ...
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- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
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