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Thursday, 18 April 13
FEATURE: PREDICTING THE FUTURE - AND THE PAST - BIMCO
 It’s not predicting the future that is problematical, it’s the realisation that you have to relive the past again and again when you fail to learn from your mistakes. So much so in fact that, like a scientist studying the formation of the universe, it should become possible to predict the past too.
Shipping knows exactly how this feels, having ignored the simplest of supply/demand equations and instead put its faith in fanciful predictions that the world – and therefore business – had changed forever.
The trouble is that the more things change, the more they also stay the same. The belief that an industry could break completely free of the cycles which had marked its history for hundreds of years was in fact a departure from reality, the consequences of which we continue to live with.
At least we know now, in case we did not before, that the world will continue to be a difficult place in which to trade, and one need only attend one of the regular shipping industry trade shows to experience that feeling first hand.
Even in Asia, grounded more in trade and consumption rather than the optimism of capital markets, there is an expectation that the world which emerges from the industry’s longest downturn in a generation will be different to the one that went into it.
Classification Society Lloyd’s Register used the recent Singapore Maritime Week to launch its own piece of long range research, laying down competing scenarios of what the industry might have to be grappling with by 2030.
A thorough piece of work put together by LR, QinetiQ and Strathclyde University, it nonetheless can only really succeed in telling the reader what they might already suspect, particularly with regard to the economic/political backdrop.
It seems highly unlikely, for example, that the world will adopt anything but an aggressive posture to protection and preference, not simply for the length of the recession but subsequently, as the emerging nations that (again, we know) will come to dominate the industry flex their muscles.
The shipping industry gives thanks en masse for China’s rise but it must surely recognise that the trading partner with which it will have to deal is no US, no Europe, not even a Russia.
Shipping has traditionally enjoyed freedom of capital, movement of people, goods and services, all commodities it cannot be certain will be so readily available in future. The evidence of the tension emerging in Singapore last week over the need to balance immigration against the requirement to import skills to cement the city-state’s future growth is one clear example and far from being the only one.
Shipping also likes to be left alone and to do its own thing, rather in the same way as entrepreneurs enjoy conditions of privacy to found and grow businesses – unfettered by regulation and competitive constraints, served by relatively free-flowing debt financing.
Again, little to no hope there. Shipping’s dalliance with unreality has left it, if not high and dry, then in a new room with different lenders with very different ideas compared to its former ship finance partners.
Shipping is also highly regulated, but in some areas, less highly regulated than other comparable industries. The trouble is that the industry has done a bad job too often of arguing its case that the positives outweigh the negatives.
There are a number of reasons for that, not least that its main regulator has to juggle the demands of being a technical body on the one hand with being a political one on the other. The tidal wave of opprobrium heaped upon regulators during CMA was a little less obvious during Maritime Week but it is clear the costs of compliance, the need to demonstrate transparency and the requirement to operate under greater scrutiny will all be firm future requirements.
But can shipping change by enough to meet these needs? Of course it should – by practising restraint, by being more commercially adept, by making friends with regulators earlier in the rulemaking process, by recognising that market share without profit margin is a pointless metric and that it something looks too good to be true, it probably is.
To carve out a survival strategy that goes beyond merely putting off the inevitable for another seven years, shipping certainly has to get smarter, and not just in terms of the above commercial issues, however pressing they appear.
Shipping needs to cure itself of the affliction that it has suffered under for at least the last 20 years – you take care of providing sufficient growth, we’ll take care of the rest. The industry is being asked tough questions about its place in the world, just at the time when it has demonstrated the definition of commercial irresponsibility and lack of regulatory engagement. So, back to the future. There is a fine living to be made predicting even short term scenarios, but better cuttings and weblinks to be garnered by mopping up in the aftermath. Most of those doing the latter focus on how we failed to spot the emergence of various technologies and services in time to either make our fortunes or to adopt them to our competitive advantage, preferring to dismiss them as the short term fads driven by people who just want to sell us things before our current things have worn out.
But watch this space – there are two factors that will be decisive in marking out corporates for survival and perhaps the wider industry for adaptive evolution: attitudes to people and the use of technology. The entry into force of the MLC might not by itself guarantee better working conditions for all seafarers but it demonstrates a much clearer focus by regulators that owners will be unable to ignore and should turn to their advantage.
And as for technology? Well, without new approaches to designing, building and operating ships, incorporating not just some tried and trusted techniques but new – and as yet unproven – technologies, there is little hope of meeting future regulatory hurdles and energy efficiency requirements.
I said that predicting the past was possible and here is the history lesson. Owners will adapt and survive. Some will leave the stage and some big names disappear but long before 2030, we will see a new industry emerge. In fact this is not a prediction. It will have to happen.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping
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Wednesday, 30 September 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Spot rates for Capesize bulk carriers received a significant boost last week, however, there are certain reservations in the market regarding the p ...
Tuesday, 29 September 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.73 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 125.91 points Monday, up 0.73 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
Tuesday, 29 September 20
SHIPPING MARKET - ALLIED
Here we are, just a short breath before the final quarter of the year, and many are now debating to what extent we can really expect a firm dry bul ...
Tuesday, 29 September 20
INDONESIAN COAL COMPANIES' EARNINGS TO WEAKEN IN 2H20 - FITCH RATINGS
Rated Indonesian coal miners and contractors will have weaker operating and financial performances in the second half of 2020 than in the first, sa ...
Tuesday, 29 September 20
RUSSIA'S COAL PRODUCTION TO DROP BY 10.5% IN 2020, SAYS MINISTRY - TASS
Russia’s Economic Development Ministry projects a 10.5% decrease in coal production in the country in 2020 compared with last year to 395 mln ...
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- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Australian Coal Association
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PTC India Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
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