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Thursday, 18 April 13
FEATURE: PREDICTING THE FUTURE - AND THE PAST - BIMCO
 It’s not predicting the future that is problematical, it’s the realisation that you have to relive the past again and again when you fail to learn from your mistakes. So much so in fact that, like a scientist studying the formation of the universe, it should become possible to predict the past too.
Shipping knows exactly how this feels, having ignored the simplest of supply/demand equations and instead put its faith in fanciful predictions that the world – and therefore business – had changed forever.
The trouble is that the more things change, the more they also stay the same. The belief that an industry could break completely free of the cycles which had marked its history for hundreds of years was in fact a departure from reality, the consequences of which we continue to live with.
At least we know now, in case we did not before, that the world will continue to be a difficult place in which to trade, and one need only attend one of the regular shipping industry trade shows to experience that feeling first hand.
Even in Asia, grounded more in trade and consumption rather than the optimism of capital markets, there is an expectation that the world which emerges from the industry’s longest downturn in a generation will be different to the one that went into it.
Classification Society Lloyd’s Register used the recent Singapore Maritime Week to launch its own piece of long range research, laying down competing scenarios of what the industry might have to be grappling with by 2030.
A thorough piece of work put together by LR, QinetiQ and Strathclyde University, it nonetheless can only really succeed in telling the reader what they might already suspect, particularly with regard to the economic/political backdrop.
It seems highly unlikely, for example, that the world will adopt anything but an aggressive posture to protection and preference, not simply for the length of the recession but subsequently, as the emerging nations that (again, we know) will come to dominate the industry flex their muscles.
The shipping industry gives thanks en masse for China’s rise but it must surely recognise that the trading partner with which it will have to deal is no US, no Europe, not even a Russia.
Shipping has traditionally enjoyed freedom of capital, movement of people, goods and services, all commodities it cannot be certain will be so readily available in future. The evidence of the tension emerging in Singapore last week over the need to balance immigration against the requirement to import skills to cement the city-state’s future growth is one clear example and far from being the only one.
Shipping also likes to be left alone and to do its own thing, rather in the same way as entrepreneurs enjoy conditions of privacy to found and grow businesses – unfettered by regulation and competitive constraints, served by relatively free-flowing debt financing.
Again, little to no hope there. Shipping’s dalliance with unreality has left it, if not high and dry, then in a new room with different lenders with very different ideas compared to its former ship finance partners.
Shipping is also highly regulated, but in some areas, less highly regulated than other comparable industries. The trouble is that the industry has done a bad job too often of arguing its case that the positives outweigh the negatives.
There are a number of reasons for that, not least that its main regulator has to juggle the demands of being a technical body on the one hand with being a political one on the other. The tidal wave of opprobrium heaped upon regulators during CMA was a little less obvious during Maritime Week but it is clear the costs of compliance, the need to demonstrate transparency and the requirement to operate under greater scrutiny will all be firm future requirements.
But can shipping change by enough to meet these needs? Of course it should – by practising restraint, by being more commercially adept, by making friends with regulators earlier in the rulemaking process, by recognising that market share without profit margin is a pointless metric and that it something looks too good to be true, it probably is.
To carve out a survival strategy that goes beyond merely putting off the inevitable for another seven years, shipping certainly has to get smarter, and not just in terms of the above commercial issues, however pressing they appear.
Shipping needs to cure itself of the affliction that it has suffered under for at least the last 20 years – you take care of providing sufficient growth, we’ll take care of the rest. The industry is being asked tough questions about its place in the world, just at the time when it has demonstrated the definition of commercial irresponsibility and lack of regulatory engagement. So, back to the future. There is a fine living to be made predicting even short term scenarios, but better cuttings and weblinks to be garnered by mopping up in the aftermath. Most of those doing the latter focus on how we failed to spot the emergence of various technologies and services in time to either make our fortunes or to adopt them to our competitive advantage, preferring to dismiss them as the short term fads driven by people who just want to sell us things before our current things have worn out.
But watch this space – there are two factors that will be decisive in marking out corporates for survival and perhaps the wider industry for adaptive evolution: attitudes to people and the use of technology. The entry into force of the MLC might not by itself guarantee better working conditions for all seafarers but it demonstrates a much clearer focus by regulators that owners will be unable to ignore and should turn to their advantage.
And as for technology? Well, without new approaches to designing, building and operating ships, incorporating not just some tried and trusted techniques but new – and as yet unproven – technologies, there is little hope of meeting future regulatory hurdles and energy efficiency requirements.
I said that predicting the past was possible and here is the history lesson. Owners will adapt and survive. Some will leave the stage and some big names disappear but long before 2030, we will see a new industry emerge. In fact this is not a prediction. It will have to happen.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping
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Wednesday, 07 October 20
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION TO DECREASE BY 26 PERCENT IN 2020 COMPARED TO 2019 - EIA
EIA expects total U.S. coal production in 2020 to be 525 million short tons (MMst), compared with 705 MMst in 2019, a 26% decrease.
COVID-19 a ...
Wednesday, 07 October 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The challenges brought forward in 2020 proved to be very different from what we could have ever imagined. Together with placing a significant strai ...
Tuesday, 06 October 20
KOSPO TO IMPORT 80,000 MT OF 3,800 NCV COAL FOR 2H NOV
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO) has issued an International tender for 80,000 MT Min.3800 kcal/kg NCV coal 2H November, 2020 l ...
Friday, 02 October 20
THE INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE RISE AFTER HISTORIC CRASH TO US$ 49.42
COALspot.com: The Indonesia Coal Price Reference for the month of October Rise to US$ 51.00 after historic crash to US$ 49.42 in September 2020.
...
Friday, 02 October 20
SRI LANKA MUST LEARN LESSONS FROM AROUND ASIA TO AVOID FURTHER ELECTRICITY CRISES - IEEFA
Overcommitment to fossil-fuelled power generation is leading to excess capacity and rising capacity payments, subsidies, and tariffs around the con ...
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- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
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