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Thursday, 18 April 13
FEATURE: PREDICTING THE FUTURE - AND THE PAST - BIMCO
 It’s not predicting the future that is problematical, it’s the realisation that you have to relive the past again and again when you fail to learn from your mistakes. So much so in fact that, like a scientist studying the formation of the universe, it should become possible to predict the past too.
Shipping knows exactly how this feels, having ignored the simplest of supply/demand equations and instead put its faith in fanciful predictions that the world – and therefore business – had changed forever.
The trouble is that the more things change, the more they also stay the same. The belief that an industry could break completely free of the cycles which had marked its history for hundreds of years was in fact a departure from reality, the consequences of which we continue to live with.
At least we know now, in case we did not before, that the world will continue to be a difficult place in which to trade, and one need only attend one of the regular shipping industry trade shows to experience that feeling first hand.
Even in Asia, grounded more in trade and consumption rather than the optimism of capital markets, there is an expectation that the world which emerges from the industry’s longest downturn in a generation will be different to the one that went into it.
Classification Society Lloyd’s Register used the recent Singapore Maritime Week to launch its own piece of long range research, laying down competing scenarios of what the industry might have to be grappling with by 2030.
A thorough piece of work put together by LR, QinetiQ and Strathclyde University, it nonetheless can only really succeed in telling the reader what they might already suspect, particularly with regard to the economic/political backdrop.
It seems highly unlikely, for example, that the world will adopt anything but an aggressive posture to protection and preference, not simply for the length of the recession but subsequently, as the emerging nations that (again, we know) will come to dominate the industry flex their muscles.
The shipping industry gives thanks en masse for China’s rise but it must surely recognise that the trading partner with which it will have to deal is no US, no Europe, not even a Russia.
Shipping has traditionally enjoyed freedom of capital, movement of people, goods and services, all commodities it cannot be certain will be so readily available in future. The evidence of the tension emerging in Singapore last week over the need to balance immigration against the requirement to import skills to cement the city-state’s future growth is one clear example and far from being the only one.
Shipping also likes to be left alone and to do its own thing, rather in the same way as entrepreneurs enjoy conditions of privacy to found and grow businesses – unfettered by regulation and competitive constraints, served by relatively free-flowing debt financing.
Again, little to no hope there. Shipping’s dalliance with unreality has left it, if not high and dry, then in a new room with different lenders with very different ideas compared to its former ship finance partners.
Shipping is also highly regulated, but in some areas, less highly regulated than other comparable industries. The trouble is that the industry has done a bad job too often of arguing its case that the positives outweigh the negatives.
There are a number of reasons for that, not least that its main regulator has to juggle the demands of being a technical body on the one hand with being a political one on the other. The tidal wave of opprobrium heaped upon regulators during CMA was a little less obvious during Maritime Week but it is clear the costs of compliance, the need to demonstrate transparency and the requirement to operate under greater scrutiny will all be firm future requirements.
But can shipping change by enough to meet these needs? Of course it should – by practising restraint, by being more commercially adept, by making friends with regulators earlier in the rulemaking process, by recognising that market share without profit margin is a pointless metric and that it something looks too good to be true, it probably is.
To carve out a survival strategy that goes beyond merely putting off the inevitable for another seven years, shipping certainly has to get smarter, and not just in terms of the above commercial issues, however pressing they appear.
Shipping needs to cure itself of the affliction that it has suffered under for at least the last 20 years – you take care of providing sufficient growth, we’ll take care of the rest. The industry is being asked tough questions about its place in the world, just at the time when it has demonstrated the definition of commercial irresponsibility and lack of regulatory engagement. So, back to the future. There is a fine living to be made predicting even short term scenarios, but better cuttings and weblinks to be garnered by mopping up in the aftermath. Most of those doing the latter focus on how we failed to spot the emergence of various technologies and services in time to either make our fortunes or to adopt them to our competitive advantage, preferring to dismiss them as the short term fads driven by people who just want to sell us things before our current things have worn out.
But watch this space – there are two factors that will be decisive in marking out corporates for survival and perhaps the wider industry for adaptive evolution: attitudes to people and the use of technology. The entry into force of the MLC might not by itself guarantee better working conditions for all seafarers but it demonstrates a much clearer focus by regulators that owners will be unable to ignore and should turn to their advantage.
And as for technology? Well, without new approaches to designing, building and operating ships, incorporating not just some tried and trusted techniques but new – and as yet unproven – technologies, there is little hope of meeting future regulatory hurdles and energy efficiency requirements.
I said that predicting the past was possible and here is the history lesson. Owners will adapt and survive. Some will leave the stage and some big names disappear but long before 2030, we will see a new industry emerge. In fact this is not a prediction. It will have to happen.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping
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Wednesday, 14 October 20
CHINA COKING COAL FUTURES RALLY ON REPORTED BAN ON AUSTRALIA CARGOES - REUTERS
Dalian coking coal futures rallied for a sixth straight session on Tuesday after reports surfaced that China had stopped buying coal from Australia ...
Wednesday, 14 October 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The tanker market has experienced severe freight rate and asset value declines over the past 5 months. A potential market upturn may arise in the c ...
Friday, 09 October 20
INDIA'S COAL IMPORTS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT, BUT RECOVERY IS UNEVEN - REUTERS
India’s coal imports, depressed by the impact of coronavirus this year, regained ground in September, but in an uneven uptick – shipmen ...
Thursday, 08 October 20
CHINA'S COAL IMPORTS FROM INDONESIA DECLINED 16.4% Y-O-Y, TO 80.2 MLN TONNES IN THE FIRST 9 MONTHS OF 2020 - BANCHERO COSTA
China's coal imports boomed in 2019, surprising many who had expected the government would clamp down strictly on shipments.
...
Thursday, 08 October 20
GLIMMER OF LIGHT FOR COAL, BUT SHORT TERM - FNARENA
Is coal on the rebound? Demand appears stronger and supply reductions have underpinned a tightening market. Certainly, the Newcastle thermal coal p ...
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- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The University of Queensland
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
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