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Thursday, 18 April 13
FEATURE: PREDICTING THE FUTURE - AND THE PAST - BIMCO
 It’s not predicting the future that is problematical, it’s the realisation that you have to relive the past again and again when you fail to learn from your mistakes. So much so in fact that, like a scientist studying the formation of the universe, it should become possible to predict the past too.
Shipping knows exactly how this feels, having ignored the simplest of supply/demand equations and instead put its faith in fanciful predictions that the world – and therefore business – had changed forever.
The trouble is that the more things change, the more they also stay the same. The belief that an industry could break completely free of the cycles which had marked its history for hundreds of years was in fact a departure from reality, the consequences of which we continue to live with.
At least we know now, in case we did not before, that the world will continue to be a difficult place in which to trade, and one need only attend one of the regular shipping industry trade shows to experience that feeling first hand.
Even in Asia, grounded more in trade and consumption rather than the optimism of capital markets, there is an expectation that the world which emerges from the industry’s longest downturn in a generation will be different to the one that went into it.
Classification Society Lloyd’s Register used the recent Singapore Maritime Week to launch its own piece of long range research, laying down competing scenarios of what the industry might have to be grappling with by 2030.
A thorough piece of work put together by LR, QinetiQ and Strathclyde University, it nonetheless can only really succeed in telling the reader what they might already suspect, particularly with regard to the economic/political backdrop.
It seems highly unlikely, for example, that the world will adopt anything but an aggressive posture to protection and preference, not simply for the length of the recession but subsequently, as the emerging nations that (again, we know) will come to dominate the industry flex their muscles.
The shipping industry gives thanks en masse for China’s rise but it must surely recognise that the trading partner with which it will have to deal is no US, no Europe, not even a Russia.
Shipping has traditionally enjoyed freedom of capital, movement of people, goods and services, all commodities it cannot be certain will be so readily available in future. The evidence of the tension emerging in Singapore last week over the need to balance immigration against the requirement to import skills to cement the city-state’s future growth is one clear example and far from being the only one.
Shipping also likes to be left alone and to do its own thing, rather in the same way as entrepreneurs enjoy conditions of privacy to found and grow businesses – unfettered by regulation and competitive constraints, served by relatively free-flowing debt financing.
Again, little to no hope there. Shipping’s dalliance with unreality has left it, if not high and dry, then in a new room with different lenders with very different ideas compared to its former ship finance partners.
Shipping is also highly regulated, but in some areas, less highly regulated than other comparable industries. The trouble is that the industry has done a bad job too often of arguing its case that the positives outweigh the negatives.
There are a number of reasons for that, not least that its main regulator has to juggle the demands of being a technical body on the one hand with being a political one on the other. The tidal wave of opprobrium heaped upon regulators during CMA was a little less obvious during Maritime Week but it is clear the costs of compliance, the need to demonstrate transparency and the requirement to operate under greater scrutiny will all be firm future requirements.
But can shipping change by enough to meet these needs? Of course it should – by practising restraint, by being more commercially adept, by making friends with regulators earlier in the rulemaking process, by recognising that market share without profit margin is a pointless metric and that it something looks too good to be true, it probably is.
To carve out a survival strategy that goes beyond merely putting off the inevitable for another seven years, shipping certainly has to get smarter, and not just in terms of the above commercial issues, however pressing they appear.
Shipping needs to cure itself of the affliction that it has suffered under for at least the last 20 years – you take care of providing sufficient growth, we’ll take care of the rest. The industry is being asked tough questions about its place in the world, just at the time when it has demonstrated the definition of commercial irresponsibility and lack of regulatory engagement. So, back to the future. There is a fine living to be made predicting even short term scenarios, but better cuttings and weblinks to be garnered by mopping up in the aftermath. Most of those doing the latter focus on how we failed to spot the emergence of various technologies and services in time to either make our fortunes or to adopt them to our competitive advantage, preferring to dismiss them as the short term fads driven by people who just want to sell us things before our current things have worn out.
But watch this space – there are two factors that will be decisive in marking out corporates for survival and perhaps the wider industry for adaptive evolution: attitudes to people and the use of technology. The entry into force of the MLC might not by itself guarantee better working conditions for all seafarers but it demonstrates a much clearer focus by regulators that owners will be unable to ignore and should turn to their advantage.
And as for technology? Well, without new approaches to designing, building and operating ships, incorporating not just some tried and trusted techniques but new – and as yet unproven – technologies, there is little hope of meeting future regulatory hurdles and energy efficiency requirements.
I said that predicting the past was possible and here is the history lesson. Owners will adapt and survive. Some will leave the stage and some big names disappear but long before 2030, we will see a new industry emerge. In fact this is not a prediction. It will have to happen.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping
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Monday, 08 January 24
KOSPO TO BUY 80000 MT OF INDONESIAN LOW CALORIFIC VALUE COAL FOR FEB 2024
Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO), is inviting bids for the supply of Indonesian Low Calorific Value Coal from qualified suppliers for Korean ...
Monday, 08 January 24
SEABORNE TRADE REACHES 12.4BN TONNES - CLARKSONS
China will establish a back-up coal production system by 2027 to stabilise prices and secure coal supply, the state planner said on Wednesday, even ...
Monday, 08 January 24
CAPESIZES START THE NEW YEAR ON POSITIVE NOTE - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Capesize
This week the capsize market has been marked by a mix of activities and challenges. Despite a slow start following the Christmas and N ...
Friday, 05 January 24
MORGAN STANLEY SEES LOWER OIL PRICES IN 2024 ON OVERSUPPLY CONCERNS - REUTERS
Morgan Stanley sees Brent crude prices anchored near $80 per barrel in the first half in 2024 before declining towards the end of the year as it ex ...
Friday, 05 January 24
INDIA'S COAL OUTPUT RISES NEARLY 11 PC IN DEC TO 92.87 MT - PTI
India’s coal production increased by 10.75 per cent to 92.87 million tonne in December 2023 as compared to the year-ago period, an official s ...
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- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Australian Coal Association
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Minerals Council of Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
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