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Thursday, 18 April 13
FEATURE: PREDICTING THE FUTURE - AND THE PAST - BIMCO
 It’s not predicting the future that is problematical, it’s the realisation that you have to relive the past again and again when you fail to learn from your mistakes. So much so in fact that, like a scientist studying the formation of the universe, it should become possible to predict the past too.
Shipping knows exactly how this feels, having ignored the simplest of supply/demand equations and instead put its faith in fanciful predictions that the world – and therefore business – had changed forever.
The trouble is that the more things change, the more they also stay the same. The belief that an industry could break completely free of the cycles which had marked its history for hundreds of years was in fact a departure from reality, the consequences of which we continue to live with.
At least we know now, in case we did not before, that the world will continue to be a difficult place in which to trade, and one need only attend one of the regular shipping industry trade shows to experience that feeling first hand.
Even in Asia, grounded more in trade and consumption rather than the optimism of capital markets, there is an expectation that the world which emerges from the industry’s longest downturn in a generation will be different to the one that went into it.
Classification Society Lloyd’s Register used the recent Singapore Maritime Week to launch its own piece of long range research, laying down competing scenarios of what the industry might have to be grappling with by 2030.
A thorough piece of work put together by LR, QinetiQ and Strathclyde University, it nonetheless can only really succeed in telling the reader what they might already suspect, particularly with regard to the economic/political backdrop.
It seems highly unlikely, for example, that the world will adopt anything but an aggressive posture to protection and preference, not simply for the length of the recession but subsequently, as the emerging nations that (again, we know) will come to dominate the industry flex their muscles.
The shipping industry gives thanks en masse for China’s rise but it must surely recognise that the trading partner with which it will have to deal is no US, no Europe, not even a Russia.
Shipping has traditionally enjoyed freedom of capital, movement of people, goods and services, all commodities it cannot be certain will be so readily available in future. The evidence of the tension emerging in Singapore last week over the need to balance immigration against the requirement to import skills to cement the city-state’s future growth is one clear example and far from being the only one.
Shipping also likes to be left alone and to do its own thing, rather in the same way as entrepreneurs enjoy conditions of privacy to found and grow businesses – unfettered by regulation and competitive constraints, served by relatively free-flowing debt financing.
Again, little to no hope there. Shipping’s dalliance with unreality has left it, if not high and dry, then in a new room with different lenders with very different ideas compared to its former ship finance partners.
Shipping is also highly regulated, but in some areas, less highly regulated than other comparable industries. The trouble is that the industry has done a bad job too often of arguing its case that the positives outweigh the negatives.
There are a number of reasons for that, not least that its main regulator has to juggle the demands of being a technical body on the one hand with being a political one on the other. The tidal wave of opprobrium heaped upon regulators during CMA was a little less obvious during Maritime Week but it is clear the costs of compliance, the need to demonstrate transparency and the requirement to operate under greater scrutiny will all be firm future requirements.
But can shipping change by enough to meet these needs? Of course it should – by practising restraint, by being more commercially adept, by making friends with regulators earlier in the rulemaking process, by recognising that market share without profit margin is a pointless metric and that it something looks too good to be true, it probably is.
To carve out a survival strategy that goes beyond merely putting off the inevitable for another seven years, shipping certainly has to get smarter, and not just in terms of the above commercial issues, however pressing they appear.
Shipping needs to cure itself of the affliction that it has suffered under for at least the last 20 years – you take care of providing sufficient growth, we’ll take care of the rest. The industry is being asked tough questions about its place in the world, just at the time when it has demonstrated the definition of commercial irresponsibility and lack of regulatory engagement. So, back to the future. There is a fine living to be made predicting even short term scenarios, but better cuttings and weblinks to be garnered by mopping up in the aftermath. Most of those doing the latter focus on how we failed to spot the emergence of various technologies and services in time to either make our fortunes or to adopt them to our competitive advantage, preferring to dismiss them as the short term fads driven by people who just want to sell us things before our current things have worn out.
But watch this space – there are two factors that will be decisive in marking out corporates for survival and perhaps the wider industry for adaptive evolution: attitudes to people and the use of technology. The entry into force of the MLC might not by itself guarantee better working conditions for all seafarers but it demonstrates a much clearer focus by regulators that owners will be unable to ignore and should turn to their advantage.
And as for technology? Well, without new approaches to designing, building and operating ships, incorporating not just some tried and trusted techniques but new – and as yet unproven – technologies, there is little hope of meeting future regulatory hurdles and energy efficiency requirements.
I said that predicting the past was possible and here is the history lesson. Owners will adapt and survive. Some will leave the stage and some big names disappear but long before 2030, we will see a new industry emerge. In fact this is not a prediction. It will have to happen.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping
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Thursday, 25 January 24
THE RED SEA ESCALATION IMPLICATIONS ON GLOBAL SEABORNE TRADE - MARIA BERTZELETOU
In recent days, discussions have intensified about the potential impact on the seaborne trade and ton-miles due to the evolving dynamics of market ...
Thursday, 25 January 24
RED SEA SHIPPING DISRUPTIONS KEEP GEOPOLITICAL PREMIUM FOR COMMODITIES - FITCH RATINGS
Shipping disruptions and re-routing away from the Red Sea will maintain the geopolitical premium in the main commodity markets, including for oil a ...
Friday, 19 January 24
INDONESIA TARGETS 710 MLN METRIC TONS COAL OUTPUT IN 2024 AFTER RECORD 2023 - REUTERS
Indonesia, a major thermal coal exporter, aims to produce 710 million metric tons of coal in 2024, its mining minister said on Monday, after postin ...
Friday, 19 January 24
DRUMMOND COLOMBIA COAL OUTPUT ROSE 7.1% IN 2023 - REUTERS
Coal production from miner Drummond’s Colombia operations rose 7.1% in 2023 to 29.5 million metric tons, while exports declined by 2.6% to 27 ...
Friday, 19 January 24
CHINA'S 2023 COAL OUTPUT HITS RECORD HIGH - REUTERS
China’s coal output reached a record high in 2023, data from the statistics bureau showed on Wednesday, amid an ongoing focus on energy secur ...
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- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Planning Commission, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Australian Coal Association
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
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