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Thursday, 18 April 13
FEATURE: PREDICTING THE FUTURE - AND THE PAST - BIMCO
 It’s not predicting the future that is problematical, it’s the realisation that you have to relive the past again and again when you fail to learn from your mistakes. So much so in fact that, like a scientist studying the formation of the universe, it should become possible to predict the past too.
Shipping knows exactly how this feels, having ignored the simplest of supply/demand equations and instead put its faith in fanciful predictions that the world – and therefore business – had changed forever.
The trouble is that the more things change, the more they also stay the same. The belief that an industry could break completely free of the cycles which had marked its history for hundreds of years was in fact a departure from reality, the consequences of which we continue to live with.
At least we know now, in case we did not before, that the world will continue to be a difficult place in which to trade, and one need only attend one of the regular shipping industry trade shows to experience that feeling first hand.
Even in Asia, grounded more in trade and consumption rather than the optimism of capital markets, there is an expectation that the world which emerges from the industry’s longest downturn in a generation will be different to the one that went into it.
Classification Society Lloyd’s Register used the recent Singapore Maritime Week to launch its own piece of long range research, laying down competing scenarios of what the industry might have to be grappling with by 2030.
A thorough piece of work put together by LR, QinetiQ and Strathclyde University, it nonetheless can only really succeed in telling the reader what they might already suspect, particularly with regard to the economic/political backdrop.
It seems highly unlikely, for example, that the world will adopt anything but an aggressive posture to protection and preference, not simply for the length of the recession but subsequently, as the emerging nations that (again, we know) will come to dominate the industry flex their muscles.
The shipping industry gives thanks en masse for China’s rise but it must surely recognise that the trading partner with which it will have to deal is no US, no Europe, not even a Russia.
Shipping has traditionally enjoyed freedom of capital, movement of people, goods and services, all commodities it cannot be certain will be so readily available in future. The evidence of the tension emerging in Singapore last week over the need to balance immigration against the requirement to import skills to cement the city-state’s future growth is one clear example and far from being the only one.
Shipping also likes to be left alone and to do its own thing, rather in the same way as entrepreneurs enjoy conditions of privacy to found and grow businesses – unfettered by regulation and competitive constraints, served by relatively free-flowing debt financing.
Again, little to no hope there. Shipping’s dalliance with unreality has left it, if not high and dry, then in a new room with different lenders with very different ideas compared to its former ship finance partners.
Shipping is also highly regulated, but in some areas, less highly regulated than other comparable industries. The trouble is that the industry has done a bad job too often of arguing its case that the positives outweigh the negatives.
There are a number of reasons for that, not least that its main regulator has to juggle the demands of being a technical body on the one hand with being a political one on the other. The tidal wave of opprobrium heaped upon regulators during CMA was a little less obvious during Maritime Week but it is clear the costs of compliance, the need to demonstrate transparency and the requirement to operate under greater scrutiny will all be firm future requirements.
But can shipping change by enough to meet these needs? Of course it should – by practising restraint, by being more commercially adept, by making friends with regulators earlier in the rulemaking process, by recognising that market share without profit margin is a pointless metric and that it something looks too good to be true, it probably is.
To carve out a survival strategy that goes beyond merely putting off the inevitable for another seven years, shipping certainly has to get smarter, and not just in terms of the above commercial issues, however pressing they appear.
Shipping needs to cure itself of the affliction that it has suffered under for at least the last 20 years – you take care of providing sufficient growth, we’ll take care of the rest. The industry is being asked tough questions about its place in the world, just at the time when it has demonstrated the definition of commercial irresponsibility and lack of regulatory engagement. So, back to the future. There is a fine living to be made predicting even short term scenarios, but better cuttings and weblinks to be garnered by mopping up in the aftermath. Most of those doing the latter focus on how we failed to spot the emergence of various technologies and services in time to either make our fortunes or to adopt them to our competitive advantage, preferring to dismiss them as the short term fads driven by people who just want to sell us things before our current things have worn out.
But watch this space – there are two factors that will be decisive in marking out corporates for survival and perhaps the wider industry for adaptive evolution: attitudes to people and the use of technology. The entry into force of the MLC might not by itself guarantee better working conditions for all seafarers but it demonstrates a much clearer focus by regulators that owners will be unable to ignore and should turn to their advantage.
And as for technology? Well, without new approaches to designing, building and operating ships, incorporating not just some tried and trusted techniques but new – and as yet unproven – technologies, there is little hope of meeting future regulatory hurdles and energy efficiency requirements.
I said that predicting the past was possible and here is the history lesson. Owners will adapt and survive. Some will leave the stage and some big names disappear but long before 2030, we will see a new industry emerge. In fact this is not a prediction. It will have to happen.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping
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Wednesday, 31 January 24
CHINA'S INNER MONGOLIA COAL OUTPUT HIT 1.21B TONS IN 2023 - XINHUA
North China’s Inner Mongolia autonomous region churned out 1.21 billion tons of coal in 2023 as it strives to guarantee the country’s e ...
Wednesday, 31 January 24
GAS EXPORTS COST U.S. CONSUMERS MORE THAN $100 BILLION OVER 16-MONTH PERIOD - IEEFA
Limited Demand Growth Could Dampen the Dry Bulk Market in the Coming Months BIMCOStarting in late 2021—before its invasion of Ukraine—R ...
Tuesday, 30 January 24
LIMITED DEMAND GROWTH COULD DAMPEN THE DRY BULK MARKET IN THE COMING MONTHS - BIMCO
Demand
In our base scenario, we expect cargo demand to grow by 0-1% in 2024 and 0.5-1.5% in 2025. This is a 0.5 percentage point reduction for ...
Friday, 26 January 24
RED SEA DIVERSIONS ADD NEARLY A MILLION DOLLARS PER VOYAGE TO SHIPPING COSTS WHILE DOUBLING TRANSIT TIME - LSEG
The incremental costs of diverting a tanker from Asia to NW Europe via the Cape of Good Hope is accounting for an extra $932,905 USD per voyage whi ...
Friday, 26 January 24
HARD COAL GUARDIAN ANGEL OF THE ENERGY SUPPLY - GERMANY COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION
- No security of supply without hard coal
- The Substitute Power Plant Provision Act (EKBG) must be extended
- Higher grid fees due to the ...
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- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The University of Queensland
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Australian Coal Association
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
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