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Thursday, 18 April 13
FEATURE: PREDICTING THE FUTURE - AND THE PAST - BIMCO
 It’s not predicting the future that is problematical, it’s the realisation that you have to relive the past again and again when you fail to learn from your mistakes. So much so in fact that, like a scientist studying the formation of the universe, it should become possible to predict the past too.
Shipping knows exactly how this feels, having ignored the simplest of supply/demand equations and instead put its faith in fanciful predictions that the world – and therefore business – had changed forever.
The trouble is that the more things change, the more they also stay the same. The belief that an industry could break completely free of the cycles which had marked its history for hundreds of years was in fact a departure from reality, the consequences of which we continue to live with.
At least we know now, in case we did not before, that the world will continue to be a difficult place in which to trade, and one need only attend one of the regular shipping industry trade shows to experience that feeling first hand.
Even in Asia, grounded more in trade and consumption rather than the optimism of capital markets, there is an expectation that the world which emerges from the industry’s longest downturn in a generation will be different to the one that went into it.
Classification Society Lloyd’s Register used the recent Singapore Maritime Week to launch its own piece of long range research, laying down competing scenarios of what the industry might have to be grappling with by 2030.
A thorough piece of work put together by LR, QinetiQ and Strathclyde University, it nonetheless can only really succeed in telling the reader what they might already suspect, particularly with regard to the economic/political backdrop.
It seems highly unlikely, for example, that the world will adopt anything but an aggressive posture to protection and preference, not simply for the length of the recession but subsequently, as the emerging nations that (again, we know) will come to dominate the industry flex their muscles.
The shipping industry gives thanks en masse for China’s rise but it must surely recognise that the trading partner with which it will have to deal is no US, no Europe, not even a Russia.
Shipping has traditionally enjoyed freedom of capital, movement of people, goods and services, all commodities it cannot be certain will be so readily available in future. The evidence of the tension emerging in Singapore last week over the need to balance immigration against the requirement to import skills to cement the city-state’s future growth is one clear example and far from being the only one.
Shipping also likes to be left alone and to do its own thing, rather in the same way as entrepreneurs enjoy conditions of privacy to found and grow businesses – unfettered by regulation and competitive constraints, served by relatively free-flowing debt financing.
Again, little to no hope there. Shipping’s dalliance with unreality has left it, if not high and dry, then in a new room with different lenders with very different ideas compared to its former ship finance partners.
Shipping is also highly regulated, but in some areas, less highly regulated than other comparable industries. The trouble is that the industry has done a bad job too often of arguing its case that the positives outweigh the negatives.
There are a number of reasons for that, not least that its main regulator has to juggle the demands of being a technical body on the one hand with being a political one on the other. The tidal wave of opprobrium heaped upon regulators during CMA was a little less obvious during Maritime Week but it is clear the costs of compliance, the need to demonstrate transparency and the requirement to operate under greater scrutiny will all be firm future requirements.
But can shipping change by enough to meet these needs? Of course it should – by practising restraint, by being more commercially adept, by making friends with regulators earlier in the rulemaking process, by recognising that market share without profit margin is a pointless metric and that it something looks too good to be true, it probably is.
To carve out a survival strategy that goes beyond merely putting off the inevitable for another seven years, shipping certainly has to get smarter, and not just in terms of the above commercial issues, however pressing they appear.
Shipping needs to cure itself of the affliction that it has suffered under for at least the last 20 years – you take care of providing sufficient growth, we’ll take care of the rest. The industry is being asked tough questions about its place in the world, just at the time when it has demonstrated the definition of commercial irresponsibility and lack of regulatory engagement. So, back to the future. There is a fine living to be made predicting even short term scenarios, but better cuttings and weblinks to be garnered by mopping up in the aftermath. Most of those doing the latter focus on how we failed to spot the emergence of various technologies and services in time to either make our fortunes or to adopt them to our competitive advantage, preferring to dismiss them as the short term fads driven by people who just want to sell us things before our current things have worn out.
But watch this space – there are two factors that will be decisive in marking out corporates for survival and perhaps the wider industry for adaptive evolution: attitudes to people and the use of technology. The entry into force of the MLC might not by itself guarantee better working conditions for all seafarers but it demonstrates a much clearer focus by regulators that owners will be unable to ignore and should turn to their advantage.
And as for technology? Well, without new approaches to designing, building and operating ships, incorporating not just some tried and trusted techniques but new – and as yet unproven – technologies, there is little hope of meeting future regulatory hurdles and energy efficiency requirements.
I said that predicting the past was possible and here is the history lesson. Owners will adapt and survive. Some will leave the stage and some big names disappear but long before 2030, we will see a new industry emerge. In fact this is not a prediction. It will have to happen.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping
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Friday, 06 September 24
REBOUND IN OIL DEMAND COULD LIFT MARKET IN LATTER HALF OF 2024 - BIMCO
Supply/demand
Based on a strong second half demand, the supply/balance is forecast to strengthen in 2024 but weaken slightly in 2025 as n ...
Friday, 06 September 24
GLOBAL SEABORNE LNG TRADE HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE LAST YEAR - BANCHERO COSTA
Global seaborne LNG trade has continued to increase last year, helped also by the events in Ukraine which forced Europe to diversify away from Russ ...
Wednesday, 28 August 24
SEABORNE COAL IMPORTS INTO INDIA INCREASED BY +9.9% Y-O-Y TO 146.6 MLN T - BANCHERO COSTA
Global coal trade has really picked up pace over the past year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels said Banchero Costa Research in its lates ...
Tuesday, 06 August 24
EXERCISE CAUTION WITH AMMONIA SWITCH - BALTIC EXCHANGE
A new study from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) has thrown a spanner into the plan to transition ships from diesel fuel to ammonia ...
Friday, 02 August 24
ENERGY MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: COAL AND NATURAL GAS PRICES REACH RECORD HIGHS - WORLD BANK
The recent surge in natural gas and coal prices has been so swift that the main benchmarks were roughly three times higher in 2022Q2 compared to a ...
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- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- The University of Queensland
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- VISA Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Planning Commission, India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
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