Friday, 26 October 12 DRY BULK MARKET FALLS ON WORRIES THAT RECENT RALLY WILL BE SHORTLIVED - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market retreated yesterday as a result of a plunge of the Capesize dry bulk carriers' segment, after their latest rally. As a result, the industry's benchmark, the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) was down by 1.89% yesterday to 1,088 points. The Baltic's Capesize Index gell by 2.2% to 2,530 points. Accordingly, average daily rates for Capesizes were down to $17,848 yesterday. Panamaxes were also down yesterday, with the respective index losing 2.14%, while average daily earnings retreated to $6,589. Similarly, ax ships were down $41 at $7,443.
According to the latest weekly report from shipbroker Fearnleys, in the Capesize market, "West Australia/China rates jumped into the 11s whilst Tubarao/Qingdao has been done close to 25 pmt. Although at the end of the week, the top seems to have been reached for now - but still too early to say and owners doing a good job in maintaining the expectations for further improvements. A good number of period fixtures lately, at steady levels. Last done for one year is 13750 for good spec/Nov delivery" it said.
Explaining the latest Capesize surge, Commodore Research said in a note that "Capesize fleet growth has slowed considerably during the last few months which has helped create an environment where availability has become significantly tighter. In August, the capesize delivery total matched the amount of Capes that were scrapped from the market (8 new Capes were added, 8 old Capes were removed). In September, the capesize market grew by a net addition of only 6 vessels (16 new Capes were added; 10 old Capes were removed). In comparison, during several previous months this year, the capesize fleet had grown by a net addition of as many as 28 vessels" it said.
The US-based consultant added that "Capesize spot availability also began to become much tighter during the last two weeks of September, due to a surge in Chinese demand for imported iron ore cargoes. A total of 61 capesize vessels were chartered to haul iron ore during the Weeks Ending September 21 and September 28, which was a weekly average of 30.5 capesize iron ore fixtures. In comparison, the rest of this year had seen an average of only 15 capesize iron ore fixtures surface each week. The jump in fixtures and rise in capesize port congestion and waiting times have created an environment wher capesize availability is much tighter and rates have been able to surge as expected.
On the Panamax front, Fearnleys reported that "the market is suffering, unaffected by the recent Capesize rally, Chinese stockpiling and stimulus packages. Volumes are thin and levels are falling in the Atlantic apart from a few pockets for transatlantic coal and Continent fronthaul showing strength. Voyage terms calculate well below the T/C index averages around mid 5k for T/A mid-week. Fronthaul activity from ECSA is limited at levels just above 13k + 300k GBB APS. Grains from USG keep moving at USD 46 pmt or 15500 + 550K GBB. Speculations on export bans from Ukraine may add ton-miles and fuel to freight levels on this trade. In the Eastern hemisphere, a steady stream of Indonesian coal has kept the market fairly active and balanced. Nopac rounds are done in the 7k range vs Indo rounds closer to 6k. Short period activity limited, although a Kamsarmax fixed 4-7 months at 7k/day" it said.
Finally, on the Handy/Supramax front, Fearnleys report noted that "the Atlantic market remained weak with more supply of ships. USG-FEast rounds fixed at USD 18k and trips from Cont-Med were about USD 11k. The Pacific market remained firm with steady flow of cargoes in the market. Indo-India rounds were fixed at USD 12k bss Singapore. Nopac rounds were fixed at USD 7k dop Japan. The Indian Iron ore activity remained dead and rates for WCI-China were USD 6k and ECI-China USD 5k. Red sea fertiliser cargo fixed to India in high teens. RBCT round fixed bss APS at USD 8k + BB 250k. Short period activity remained active and rates were around USD 10k" it concluded. Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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