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Sunday, 30 September 12
INDONESIA HAS NO PLAN TO CAP COAL PRODUCTION
 COALspot.com - “The current low coal prices were mainly due to a global oversupply condition, spurred by numerous mining exploitations in the past 3-4 years due to attractive coal prices”, said Edi Prasodjo, Director of Coal Business Development at the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (MEMR), Monday during “Indonesia Coal Price Trend and Market Outlook” conference, as quoted by Bahana Securites note to its clients.
Bahana Securities note further said that, Edi Prasodjo further commented that current low prices are challenging for Indonesian small-to-medium coal companies with many of them having stopped production. MEMR forecasts a lower production output of coal in 2012. Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources is expecting the will fall to 332 million tons, down 6 percent y-y.
Energy and Mineral Resources ministry, however, forecasted a higher production output in 2013 and 2014. The ministry is expected the production in 2013 will be around 337 million tons and 342 million tons in 2014, still at same levels or lower than 2011 production volume.
According to Bahana’s note, Indonesia has already produced around 215 million tons of coal for first seven months of this year expects further deceleration in the remaining period of 2012.
The government has no plan to cap coal production to mitigate the current oversupply condition, as indicated by Director of Coal Business Development at the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources. Bahana said in its note, according to Edi Prasodjo, the production output restriction is unlikely to occur in the short-term as coal’s importance in the Indonesian state budget. Coal exports contributes IDR 20.8 trillion as non-tax state revenue in 2011 up from IDR5.8t in 2007.
In addition to that, the government is still converting all Non-Clean and Clear (Non-CNC) IUPs to be CNC IUPs and it is expected to be completed by the end of this year.
According to Bahana, “we learned an interesting development within the global coal industry”. Bahana said, according to a coal company, some of US manufacturers are starting to pulling back manufacturing plants from China to the US on the back of lower production costs helped by the availability of cheap shale gas. This coupled with the eventual repair of China’s railway problem and other technological advancement such as HVDC cable will pose longer term uncertainties on the fundamentals of coal.
Bahana adopts a different view on world coal outlook compared to a Mackenzie keynote speaker, in which he stated that longer term coal fundamentals would remain intact with main demand coming from China and India. Mackenzie believes that Chinese coal imports are mainly driven by coal price arbitrage between domestic and international coal prices.
Testimony to this was higher 8M12 coal imports (+44% y-y, exhibit 10), although we note volumes had been on the decline in the past two months with August volumes just up a paltry 4% y-y. In 2013, Mackenzie also expects China’s coal imports to grow 11% y-y to 250m tons, before further increasing to 500m tons in 2020 on higher demand. In India, coal imports are expected to almost double from the current 100m tons to nearly 200m tons in 2020 caused by infrastructure bottleneck (India's power plants are mainly concentrated in Western, Southern and Northern India, while production is based in Eastern India). However, we note that Mackenzie does not see much coal price improvement through 2013 from current levels.
Bahana believes upside potential on coal price remains limited due to weak coal demand. Bahana maintains its 2012 average coal benchmark price at USD97/ton, but Bahana’s forecasts prices for 2013 is much lesser than 2012 price. Bahana maintains it 2013 coal prices at USD85 / ton in 2013, around US$ 12.00 below its 2012 forecasts. Bahana retains its underweight stance on coal sector and expect its underperformance to persist going forward. Currently, with 23% average downside to our target prices (TPs), all of Bahana’s covered coal companies have reduce ratings.
In the meantime, the Jakarta globe, an English new paper in Indonesia reported that, the Indonesian government has scrapped plans to raise coal sales in the domestic market until at least 2014, as state utility company Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN), its main customer, has more than enough stock, a senior official at the Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry said.
“There used to be a plan to increase the DMO so that PLN could get more [coal], but now PLN has more than enough,” Rudi Rubiandini, deputy minister for energy and mineral resources, said on Friday, as quoted by The Jakarta Globe.
According to paper, Rudi’s statement echoed those of Helmi Najamudin, the head of the coal division at PLN, who said supply had surpassed consumption for the next two years. Helmi said coal consumption would exceed supply in 2015, where it will reach 88.8 million tons.
As Indonesian domestic market is not going to absorb more coal at least for another two years, the oversupply of coal to export market is unavoidable. Hence the coal price recovery will be in slow move unless there is any unexpected situation occurred in oil industry, oil transportation routes or demand side.
"The best way to escape from a problem is to solve it." – unknown source
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Wednesday, 12 June 24
CHINA ACCOUNTS FOR 16.3% OF AUSTRALIA'S COAL EXPORTS, FOLLOWED BY INDIA 14.4% - BANCHERO COSTA
Global coal trade has really picked up pace in recent months, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels says Banchero Costa in its latest report.
...
Wednesday, 12 June 24
LNG NEWBUILDING VALUES AT RECORD HIGH: 78 NEWBUILD ORDERS PLACED IN 2024, DOUBLING 2023 - VESON NAUTICAL
The number of LNG newbuilding orders have more than doubled from the same period last year where 34 orders were placed, compared to 78 in the first ...
Monday, 10 June 24
CHINA'S MAY COAL IMPORTS RISE 11% ON LOWER DOMESTIC OUTPUT - REUTERS
China’s imports of coal rose 11% in May from a year earlier, customs data and Reuters records showed on Friday, as lower domestic output this ...
Tuesday, 04 June 24
HOW DO WESTERN SANCTIONS ON RUSSIA IMPACT THE GLOBAL METALS, MINING AND COAL MARKETS - WOOD MACKENZIE
The geopolitical landscape for Russia, as a major supplier of various commodities, has undergone a dramatic transformation since the invasion of Uk ...
Friday, 22 March 24
CASE STUDY: DANGERS OF COAL CARGO - SKULD
Recently, a bulk cargo vessel carrying coal from South Africa to Singapore suffered a fatal accident, resulting in the deaths of three crew members ...
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Showing 21 to 25 news of total 6871 |
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- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- The University of Queensland
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Planning Commission, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
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