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Sunday, 30 September 12
INDONESIA HAS NO PLAN TO CAP COAL PRODUCTION
 COALspot.com - “The current low coal prices were mainly due to a global oversupply condition, spurred by numerous mining exploitations in the past 3-4 years due to attractive coal prices”, said Edi Prasodjo, Director of Coal Business Development at the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (MEMR), Monday during “Indonesia Coal Price Trend and Market Outlook” conference, as quoted by Bahana Securites note to its clients.
Bahana Securities note further said that, Edi Prasodjo further commented that current low prices are challenging for Indonesian small-to-medium coal companies with many of them having stopped production. MEMR forecasts a lower production output of coal in 2012. Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources is expecting the will fall to 332 million tons, down 6 percent y-y.
Energy and Mineral Resources ministry, however, forecasted a higher production output in 2013 and 2014. The ministry is expected the production in 2013 will be around 337 million tons and 342 million tons in 2014, still at same levels or lower than 2011 production volume.
According to Bahana’s note, Indonesia has already produced around 215 million tons of coal for first seven months of this year expects further deceleration in the remaining period of 2012.
The government has no plan to cap coal production to mitigate the current oversupply condition, as indicated by Director of Coal Business Development at the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources. Bahana said in its note, according to Edi Prasodjo, the production output restriction is unlikely to occur in the short-term as coal’s importance in the Indonesian state budget. Coal exports contributes IDR 20.8 trillion as non-tax state revenue in 2011 up from IDR5.8t in 2007.
In addition to that, the government is still converting all Non-Clean and Clear (Non-CNC) IUPs to be CNC IUPs and it is expected to be completed by the end of this year.
According to Bahana, “we learned an interesting development within the global coal industry”. Bahana said, according to a coal company, some of US manufacturers are starting to pulling back manufacturing plants from China to the US on the back of lower production costs helped by the availability of cheap shale gas. This coupled with the eventual repair of China’s railway problem and other technological advancement such as HVDC cable will pose longer term uncertainties on the fundamentals of coal.
Bahana adopts a different view on world coal outlook compared to a Mackenzie keynote speaker, in which he stated that longer term coal fundamentals would remain intact with main demand coming from China and India. Mackenzie believes that Chinese coal imports are mainly driven by coal price arbitrage between domestic and international coal prices.
Testimony to this was higher 8M12 coal imports (+44% y-y, exhibit 10), although we note volumes had been on the decline in the past two months with August volumes just up a paltry 4% y-y. In 2013, Mackenzie also expects China’s coal imports to grow 11% y-y to 250m tons, before further increasing to 500m tons in 2020 on higher demand. In India, coal imports are expected to almost double from the current 100m tons to nearly 200m tons in 2020 caused by infrastructure bottleneck (India's power plants are mainly concentrated in Western, Southern and Northern India, while production is based in Eastern India). However, we note that Mackenzie does not see much coal price improvement through 2013 from current levels.
Bahana believes upside potential on coal price remains limited due to weak coal demand. Bahana maintains its 2012 average coal benchmark price at USD97/ton, but Bahana’s forecasts prices for 2013 is much lesser than 2012 price. Bahana maintains it 2013 coal prices at USD85 / ton in 2013, around US$ 12.00 below its 2012 forecasts. Bahana retains its underweight stance on coal sector and expect its underperformance to persist going forward. Currently, with 23% average downside to our target prices (TPs), all of Bahana’s covered coal companies have reduce ratings.
In the meantime, the Jakarta globe, an English new paper in Indonesia reported that, the Indonesian government has scrapped plans to raise coal sales in the domestic market until at least 2014, as state utility company Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN), its main customer, has more than enough stock, a senior official at the Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry said.
“There used to be a plan to increase the DMO so that PLN could get more [coal], but now PLN has more than enough,” Rudi Rubiandini, deputy minister for energy and mineral resources, said on Friday, as quoted by The Jakarta Globe.
According to paper, Rudi’s statement echoed those of Helmi Najamudin, the head of the coal division at PLN, who said supply had surpassed consumption for the next two years. Helmi said coal consumption would exceed supply in 2015, where it will reach 88.8 million tons.
As Indonesian domestic market is not going to absorb more coal at least for another two years, the oversupply of coal to export market is unavoidable. Hence the coal price recovery will be in slow move unless there is any unexpected situation occurred in oil industry, oil transportation routes or demand side.
"The best way to escape from a problem is to solve it." – unknown source
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Monday, 24 June 24
PHILIPPINES COAL SUPPLY ENOUGH UNTIL 2030 - PHILSTAR GLOBAL
The country’s existing coal-fired power plants are sufficient to ensure enough base load capacity in the next six years, Energy Secretary Rap ...
Friday, 14 June 24
NEXTDECADE, SAUDI ARAMCO SIGN 20-YEAR LNG SUPPLY DEAL - REUTERS
U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) provider NextDecade has signed a non-binding agreement with Saudi Aramco 2222.SE to supply 1.2 million tonnes per ...
Friday, 14 June 24
NEWBUILDING PRICES CLIMB 3% TO HIGHEST LEVEL IN 16 YEARS - NIELS RASMUSSEN
“Since the start of the year, newbuilding prices have risen 3% to their highest level since 2008. Compared to their most recent low in late 2 ...
Friday, 14 June 24
INDIA TARGETS HIGHER DOMESTIC COAL PRODUCTION, REDUCED IMPORTS: GOVT - REUTERS
India wants to reduce coal imports and increase domestic production, federal coal minister G. Kishan Reddy said on Thursday.
The cou ...
Thursday, 13 June 24
US LNG TO ASIA FOR POWER GENERATION EXPECTED TO CUT EMISSIONS VERSUS COAL - RYSTAD ENERGY
The value-chain emissions of liquified natural gas (LNG) are lower on average than for coal-fired power generation, even when the fuel is shipp ...
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- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Planning Commission, India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Australian Coal Association
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
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